At 4.9%, third quarter GDP growth is even hotter than feared
The U.S. economy grew by an annual rate of 4.9% in the third quarter, the strongest pace since 2021 and twice the pace of growth in th second quarter. Before the report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, economists surveyed by Bloomberg were expecting annual growth...
Thursday GDP report expected to show a too “hot” economy
The expected strong GDP growth report for the third quarter to be released on Thursday will send the bond market wild again. The U. S. economy, economists project, grew at the fastest rate in nearly two years in the third quarter. The actual figures from the Bureau of...
This looks like the Bear Market rally I’ve been waiting for
After looking like it was over earlier in the week with a significant pull back on Tuesday, July 26, stocks have rallied in the last two days, gaining 3.85% by the Thursday, July 28 close from that Tuesday low. And right now all the ducks are lined up in a row for a...
On third thought, U.S. economy slightly weaker than expected in first quarter
The U.S. economy shrank at an annualized pace of 1.6% in the first quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s third and final estimate of first-quarter GDP released Wednesday, June 29, showed a 1.6% annualized drop in economic growth in the first quarter of...
The U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% rate in the first quarter; stocks surge
The U.S. economy unexpectedly shrank at a 1.4% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2022, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday, April 28. The first quarter results follow on a 6.9% growth rate in the fourth quarter. Economists had projected a 1% rate...
Headed your way–a flood of numbers on the economy; here’s my preview
Data, data everywhere in the next two days. From inflation to GDP. To begin with the Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to report first quarter U.S. GDP growth on April 28. Economists expect to see that the economy has grown at an annualized rate of just 1.1% in...
Please watch my new YouTube Video: What if the Fed is Wrong?
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My ninety-third YouTube video “What if the Fed is wrong?” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. Here’s the...
Q2 GDP grew by an annualized 6.5%, which gets the economy back to where it was before the pandemic–now for the tough part
U.S. gross domestic product grew 1.6% in the second quarter of the year, the Commerce Department said today, July 29. That’s up from 1.5% growth in the first quarter of 2021. On an annualized basis, second-quarter growth was 6.5 percent. It is, however, well...
Market overlooks GDP headlines today–mostly
As of the close today, October 29, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up “just” 1.17%. (The NASDAQ Composite had gained 1.64% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average had picked up 0.52%) I say “just” because after yesterday’s 3.53%...
Watch out for tomorrow’s very misleading GDP report for the third quarter
I was going to add more downside protection today but I’m putting any Put or short ETF buying off for a day or so–until I see how disruptive to the current downward trend tomorrow the first read on third quarter GDP, to be released tomorrow before the...
So much for the 2014 economic rally: U.S. GDP fell annualized 4.8% in the first quarter
The U.S. economy contracted at a 4.8% annualized pace in the first quarter. That’s the worst slide since 2008 and the first down quarter for growth since 2014. Consumer spending, no surprise in days of coronavirus shelter at home orders, led the decline (with a...
GDP up at 2.1% rate in 4th quarter but weakness emerges (or continues) in the numbers
The U.S. economy grew at a 2.1% annualized rate in the fourth quarter. That matches the growth rate for the third quarter and is slightly above the 2% growth predicted by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Full-year GDP growth finished at 2.3% in 2019, the lowest of...
Too much news for the next three weeks
Busy, busy, busy. Here’s what we know to be on tap for the rest of October as of today October 7. U.S.-China trade talks are set to resume on Thursday, October 10. That means a switch from a period when both nations were issuing statements and policy steps...
Goldilocks is alive and well, thanks to the U.S. consumer
The U.S. economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.1% in the second quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported this morning. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had projected that year over year growth in GDP would fall to 1.8%. So today’s...
A pause before tomorrow’s GDP report–and on worries about global growth
U.S. stocks paused as expected today ahead of tomorrow’s initial report on growth in U.S. GDP for the second quarter. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com are expecting that GDP growth dipped to 1.8% year over year in the quarter, down from 3.1% in the first...
GDP growth surprises at 3.2% in first quarter; economists question sustainability
The U.S. economy grew at a 3.2% real rate in the first quarter. That’s substantially stronger than the 2.2% growth in the fourth quarter and way above projections for 1.9% growth among economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Inflation remained very subdued with the...
GDP grows at annualized 3.5% in third quarter, but…
Real GDP (that is GDP discounting any gains from inflation) increased at an annualized rate of 3.5% in the third quarter. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were looking for 3.3% growth rate. In the second quarter GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.2%. Big driver in...
Second quarter GDP forecasts start to come back to earth
Not so long ago major economic forecasts such as the GDPNow forecast from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank were calling for second quarter U.S. GDP to grow at an annual rate of better than 4%. That was extraordinarily strong growth and it fit in with forecasts from...
So how strong is the economy–really?
The economic data this morning paint contradictory pictures on the strength of the U.S. economy. On the one hand GDP in the third quarter grew at a 3% annual rate. That was far better than the 2.6% expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. With the 3.1% growth in...
What happened in the markets (and economy) last week–and what it means for August and September
Let’s try to put together a few events from last week into a coherent (or, if that’s too much to hope, at least a semi-coherent) explanation for where the equity market stands now. What events, you ask? How about Friday’s report on second quarter GDP...
Q2 GDP growth worse than hoped but better than it was last quarter
The first reading on second quarter U.S. GDP growth from the Bureau of Economic Analysis puts growth at 2.6% year over year. That’s below the consensus of 2.8% growth among economists surveyed by Briefing.com. But an important advance from the growth rate in the...
June durables positive lead in to tomorrow’s Q2 GDP report
Headline durable goods order climbed 6.5% in June. That’s well above the 2.9% increase expected by economists surveyed by Briefing.com, and quite a turnaround from the revised 0.1% drop recorded in May. Â The headline numbers weren’t nearly as good as they...
Atlanta Fed raises Q2 GDP forecast; auto sales beg to differ
On July 3 the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDP forecast for second quarter GDP growth climbed to 3% year over year. That’s up from a forecast on June 30 Â for 2.7% growth for the quarter that ended on June 30. If the forecast proves accurate that would be good...
A Fed interest rate increase in June? Consumer spending says, Yes; Inflation slowdown says, Maybe
Consumer spending picked up in April, signaling that growth in the economy as a whole is headed for a rebound after a weak first quarter. Purchases increased by 0.4% in April, matching projections from economists surveyed by Bloomberg, after a 0.3% gain in March, the...
Amidst the circus don’t forget Fed minutes on Wednesday and revised GDP on Friday
I’ll grant you that it’s hard, very hard, right now to pay attention to economic fundamentals. There’s the upcoming OPEC decision on oil production cuts, President Trump’s first overseas tour, the continuing circus in Washington and more. But...
Weak economic data ahead of first quarter GDP report tomorrow
Modestly disappointing economic numbers were released today ahead of tomorrow’s report on first quarter GDP. Not that much seems to matter with the market transfixed by wrangling in Washington over a potential government shutdown, a possible Saturday vote in the...
Advance warning: New York markets are going to have a lot to digest when they open Friday morning
Earnings reports from Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOG) after the close today. Earnings from ExxonMobil(XOM) before the open tomorrow. The advance report on third quarter U.S. GDP at 8:30 a.m. New York time tomorrow. Yep, the financial markets in New York are going to...
What me worry?
Am I the only one who finds Friday’s GDP report of 1.2% annualized growth worrying? Especially when combined with a drop in consumer sentiment? What’s bothering me? The deeply disappointing second quarter GDP number was only as good as it was because...Crucial news is on the calendar this week for those who believe in a stronger than expected U.S. economy in 2011
Major events this week for those investors—and I put myself in the number—who believe that the U.S. economy will beat expectations this year—and take U.S. stocks upward with it. The Federal Reserve meets for the first time in 2011 on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
Every post from Jubak Picks straight to your mailbox. And they're free!