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When AT&T’s (T) exclusive deal expires in 2010, Apple’s (AAPL)  iPhone is most likely to find a second home with T-Mobile and not Verizon (VRZN). That’s the conclusion of a note published by analyst Doug Reid of Thomas Weisel Partners and picked up and amplified by AppleInsider.

Here’s his logic.

AT&T’s current advertising, which downplays the iPhone, is evidence to Reid that Apple is going to sell the iPhone through other partners in the United States when its exclusive deal lapses with AT&T next year.

T-Mobile’s wireless network runs on the same GSM standard as AT&T’s network does. Apple would have to modify the frequency at which the iPhone operates to port it to T-Mobile but that, Apple Insider ,notes is a relatively simple hardware tweak.

Verizon’s network, on the other hand, runs on the CDMA standard and would require major re-engineering of the iPhone. One rumored solution would have Apple do a deal with chip-maker Qualcomm (QCOM)–a Jubak’s Pick–for a chip that would let the iPhone connect to both GSM and CDMA networks.

You can read the entire AppleInsider post on this here: http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/09/12/01/apples_iphone_predicted_to_find_home_at_t_mobile_u_s_in_2010.html