May 31, 2019 @ 7:02 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed
It’s only 5%, Wall Street is saying today in what clearly sounds like an effort to convince itself when investors really know better. That unconvincing “happy talk” is why the Standard & Poor’s 500 index was down only 1.24% at the close...
May 29, 2019 @ 6:40 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed
U.S. stocks dropped again today with the Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed down another 0.69% to 2783.03. U.S. Treasury bonds rallied with the price of the 10-yer bond up enough to push the yield down to 2.21% for a drop in yield of 26 basis points in the...
May 27, 2019 @ 7:53 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed
I have my theories about this–which I’ll post tomorrow, Tuesday, May 28 in a Special Report on my subscription JubakAM.com site –and the facts certainly deserve an explanation. About 16 months ago on January 26, 2018 the Standard & Poor’s...
May 27, 2019 @ 7:46 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed
U.S. financial markets are closed today for Memorial Day. (Can’t help but think of my Dad who climbed telephone poles to string wire during World War II. “While they shot at me,” he would say with a mixture of surprise and outrage. I’m sure you...
May 23, 2019 @ 7:16 pm | Breaking News, Jubak Picks Portfolio, Jubak Top 50 Portfolio, Sell, TPR, You May Have Missed
This morning Wall Street is buzzing with talk that the U.S.-China trade war could stretch on to 2035. I think there’s just about no chance of that. But we aren’t looking at the quick resolution of the dispute that seemed possible just 10 days ago. And we...
May 23, 2019 @ 7:10 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed
You’re entitled to feel whiplashed today. Just a few days ago, on May 16, stocks rallied on speculation that trade talks would resume relatively quickly and that the United States and China, rhetoric and tariff increases aside, would find a way within weeks to...
May 23, 2019 @ 7:03 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed
The combination of a big build in U.S. crude inventories this week and fears that the escalating U.S.-China trade war will slow global economic growth (and global oil demand) took a big whack out of oil prices and oil stocks today. The U.S. Energy Information...
May 22, 2019 @ 7:39 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s April 30-May 1 meeting showed officials at the U.S. central bank inclined toward patience and to keeping the current wait-and-see policy in place “for some time.” Adding to the dovish tone of the minutes, many Fed...
May 21, 2019 @ 7:36 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed
Stocks–especially chip stocks–have rallied strongly today on headlines saying that the Department of Commerce has granted a 90-day license for U.S. companies to do business with China’s Huawei Technologies in order to service existing networks. This...
May 17, 2019 @ 7:23 pm | Breaking News, You May Have Missed
The Chinese government is using the country’s official media to signal that it isn’t interested in resuming trade talks with the United States under a threat of higher 25% tariffs on another $320 billion in Chinese exports to the United States. And to make...
May 16, 2019 @ 7:41 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed
It’s not even remotely a surprise. A day after the Trump administration declared a national emergency in order to product U.S. telecommunications for foreign antagonists–with a clear eye on China and Chinese companies such as Huawei–the Chinese...
May 15, 2019 @ 7:21 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed
Right now if the market gets bad news on the economy it goes up. Today, May 15, for example, the S&P 500 closed up 0.78% even though both U.S. and Chinese retail sales disappointed for April. Right now if the market gets bad news on oil supplies, it goes up, as...
May 14, 2019 @ 7:52 pm | Breaking News, Buy, DIS, Jubak Top 50 Portfolio, You May Have Missed
Every so often the calendar and the movie release schedule give patient long-term investors a chance to buy Disney (DIS) on some mild weakness. That’s where we are now. The stock pulled back slightly after the company announced first quarter earnings on May 9 of...
May 10, 2019 @ 7:06 pm | Breaking News, CAT, DE, Jubak Picks Portfolio, Jubak Top 50 Portfolio, LNG, Volatility, You May Have Missed
Whatever the ultimate end point of the trade talks between the United State and China, the next step is almost certainly the announcement of retaliatory measures by China in the wake of the Trump administration’s decision to raise tariffs on $200 billion of...
May 10, 2019 @ 6:59 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed
The Standard & Poor’s 500 was slightly in the green at the close today at 2881.40. That marked a big turnaround from earlier in the session. As of 11 a.m. New York time the index had dipped to 2826.29. Today it was all about China and the trade/tariff talks...
May 9, 2019 @ 7:47 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed
It is clearly in the self interest of both President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping to reach an agreement that would bring the U.S.-China trade war to an end. In the long-run. That same calculus, however, argues that in the short run both leaders will let the...
April 30, 2019 @ 7:47 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed
If this market runs out of bears, I think it’s in trouble. And today one of the market’s few remaining bears capitulated to the rally. Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy Christopher Harvey hiked his year-end price target for the Standard &...
April 30, 2019 @ 7:40 pm | Breaking News, You May Have Missed
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) has brought Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) into its battle with Chevron (CVX) for control of Permian-Basin-rich Anadarko Petroleum (APC). Up until the entry of Buffett, Chevron had the inside edge even though it had offered a...
April 29, 2019 @ 7:02 pm | Breaking News, You May Have Missed
Put today’s numbers on the economy together with those in Friday’s first quarter GDP report and the picture that emerges is of a U.S. economy growing at s very solid rate with declining inflation. But where the trends on consumer incomes and spending...
April 17, 2019 @ 7:00 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed
China’s economy expanded at 6.4% year over year in March. That beat the 6.3% expected by economists surveyed by Briefing.com. That projected 6.3% growth itself marked a step up in optimism about China’s economy. Other official numbers reported over night...
April 16, 2019 @ 7:17 pm | Breaking News, Buy, Volatility, You May Have Missed
When I set out to research and write my recent Special Report Five Sector Facing Disruption That Could Crush Your Portfolio I wanted to focus on the “destruction” side of the process of “creative destruction” that makes up economic growth in...
April 16, 2019 @ 6:50 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed
Everybody seems to agree that things are looking up for the Chinese economy. The real disagreement is about how long this improvement might last and whether there’s any chance that the upturn might go from improvement to boom. Here’s some of the data that...
April 12, 2019 @ 7:24 pm | Breaking News, FANG, Jubak Picks Portfolio, Jubak Top 50 Portfolio, PXD, You May Have Missed
Chevron (CVX) has agreed to buy Anadarko Petroleum (APC) for $33 billion in cash and stock. On the news shares of Anadarko are up 32.5% to $61.85. Shares of Chevron are off 4.91% to $119.81.Meaured by oil and natural gas production, the deal puts Chevron neck-and-neck...
April 10, 2019 @ 7:57 pm | Breaking News, INCY, Jubak Picks Portfolio, You May Have Missed
Today on my JubakAM.com subscription site I made Incyte #9 in my 10 Most dangerous Stocks for Earnings Season Special Report–and #5 on my Buy on Any Plunge Bonus Special Report. Here’s what I wrote: “There’s a good chance that Incyte (INCY)...
April 8, 2019 @ 7:29 pm | Breaking News, You May Have Missed
Business investment remained weak according to this mornings report on durable goods. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft–a measure of business investment–remained weak in February, falling 0.1% for the month. However, shipments of...
April 5, 2019 @ 8:00 pm | Breaking News, You May Have Missed
The U.S. economy added 196,000 net new jobs in March. That’s a huge increase from the 33,000 jobs added in February (revised upward from the original 20,000) and showed that the plunge in the February jobs total was an aberration. Economists surveyed by...
April 3, 2019 @ 7:55 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed
Today, Wednesday April 3, action in the three legs that support stocks near the highs for 2019 pointed toward significant risk for Thursday and Friday. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed the day up 0.21% at 2873. Leg 1 for the market: The financials,...
April 2, 2019 @ 6:39 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed
President Trump has ordered White House officials to find a way to shut the U.S. border with Mexico while exempting commercial trade from the closure. I don’t know if the President is serious–it could be a negotiating ploy designed to bring pressure on...
April 1, 2019 @ 7:58 pm | Breaking News, FANG, Jubak Picks Portfolio, You May Have Missed
Diamondback Energy (FANG) made #5 in my Special Report on the 10 most dangerous stocks this earnings season that I’m posting on my paid JubakAM.com site. And I’m selling it out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio today, April 1. If you’re looking for...
March 28, 2019 @ 7:16 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed
It’s all my fault. I go away for two days to tour colleges with my daughter, and global bond markets soar as everybody in the world decides to seek safety simultaneously. Today’s pause has very little to do with my return to my desk. The rise in bond...