Pretty tightly seems to be the answer.
Only two vessels not linked to Iran or Russia have made the tun through the strait of Hormuz, according to maritime records, since President Donald Trump said he would “ensure the free flow of energy to the world.”
One of those that braved the journey since the U.S. president’s announcement of emergency measures on Friday went “dark” by switching off its transponder and a second signaled it was Chinese owned and crewed.
The Strait of Hormuz would normally see about 100 vessels a day either exiting or entering the Gulf. In response to U.S and Israeli attacks, Iran has effectively shut the strait, attacking at least 10 ships which were seeking to traverse it in the early days of the crisis.
Meanwhile back on land, Saudi Arabia’s state oil company, Aramco, has warned of “catastrophic consequences” for the world’s oil markets if the U.S./Israeli war with Iran continues to block shipping in the strait of Hormuz.
The world’s biggest oil company expects to be able to export about 70% of its usual crude output despite the stranglehold on the vital trade artery, but its chief executive warned that there would still be “drastic” consequences for the world economy if the disruption continues.
Aramco has been unable to ship crude cargoes out of the Gulf due to the disruption, but it hopes to meet customer demands by pumping crude through an east-west pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The company plans to ramp up shipments through the pipeline to reach its full capacity of 7 million barrels a day in the next couple of days, it said. About 2 million barrels a day will be sent to Saudi Arabia’s refineries in the west of the country, leaving 5 million barrels a day for the global crude market. This represents about 70% of the kingdom’s usual exports.
Aramco said that it is now meeting most of its customers’ needs by tapping crude held in storage outside the Gulf region. The company said these stores could not be used for “an extended period of time.”
The disruption caused global oil market prices to surge to highs of $120 a barrel this week, the highest price since 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, raising fears for the global economy. Brent crude closed at $91.19 a barrel on Tuesday, March 10, down 7.85% on the day.
Yesterday, Monday, March 9, G7 finance ministers held a teleconference and issued a statement saying they “stand ready to take necessary measures, including to support global supply of energy such as stockpile release”-—but deliberately stopped short of committing to action. France’s Finance Minister Roland Lescure said plainly: “We’re not at that point yet”.
Today, Tuesday, March 10–G7 energy ministers met virtually to continue the discussion. They asked the International Energy Agency to study options but again made no decision to release.
Three G7 countries (including the U.S.) have reportedly supported a potential release of 300–400 million barrels, roughly a quarter to a third of the IEA system’s 1.2 billion barrels of public reserves. For context, the 2022 Ukraine-crisis release was 240 million barrels.
