Shares of MGM resorts International (MGM) fell 11.59% today, Thursday March 5, to close last $20.60. The shares closed at $31.21 at their 2020 high on January 17.
The impetus for the latest big drop in the stock was the announcement of the first reported case of the coronavirus in Nevada.
This follows on bad news for the casino sector on cancellations of trade shows and conventions because of the virus and a drop in hotel bookings. Casino companies with substantial operations in Macao have been hit particularly hard by a deep plunge in revenue from Chinese gamblers. Gaming revenue in Macau plunged 87.8% in February because casinos were closed for 15 days in the month. Estimates for March gaming revenue show a drop of 70% to 85% year over year. Macau gross gaming revenue is down 49.9% year to date.
Some analysts are now projecting that there won’t be a full recovery in revenue until the fourth quarter of 2020.
But when will the stock start to recover? That’s a key issue for shares of MGM and for hard hit stocks such as those of cruise operator Carnival (CCL), down another 14.14% today and 35.16% for the year.
Even if the market as a whole is slow to recover on struggles in the supply chain and thus shows a U-shaped recovery with stock prices scraping along the bottom (wherever that is) for a while, will some of the hardest hit stocks in sectors where the coronavirus damage is more direct–and not related to problems in the supply chain–bounce back more quickly in a V-shaped recovery as customers start to return?