I love fertilizer stocks as a long term play on rising global demand for food and Yara International (YARIY), the world’s largest publicly traded fertilizer company, is one of my favorites in the sector. But that’s the long term picture.
In the short term Yara International is still a commodities stock and right now the commodity sector is getting killed on worries that growth is going to slow in Brazil, India, China (especially China) and the rest of the developing world as governments there raise interest rates or otherwise tighten the money supply in order to fight inflation.
 I’ll be on the lookout to re-buy these shares at a lower price later in 2010 when I’m looking for the turn in emerging markets. (For more on why I’m raising cash now and when I might re-buy see my post https://jubakpicks.com/2010/05/18/time-to-start-raising-some-cash-there-are-bargains-waiting-down-the-road/ )
But right now this is a sell in Jubak’s Picks. (Yara International remains one of the 50 stocks in my long-term Jubak Picks 50 portfolio. I’m selling on May 19 with a loss of 1% since I added the stock to the portfolio on May 22, 2007.
Full disclosure: I will sell my own shares of Yara International three days after this is posted.
Great. Watch Yara do well for months then watch it slowly die then sell.
I believe SQM is the better stock to watch for whenever the market turns. P/E is a bit high, but earnings are improving. With this one you get the fertilizer and other inorganic salt chemical plays with the long-term play on lithium for batteries. They have the largest lithium reserve deposits in the world. With the onset of electric vehicles the lithium play will eventually outweigh earnings from all the other products unless some other battery technology supplants Li.
T-G and nwvp…
BREATHE…and then let’s talk about NMM! 🙂
well I’m off to my busy work season. Well pot would be nice in about june for 90 or so. We’ll just have to see how far down the market goes.
After reading a little here and there I bet 1000 points on the dow.
drowning?!? let’s talk about RIG!
Jim
could you please give an update on TC. I’m drownin here. Too bad I didn’t sell some. I had a limit order and it just missed. And it’s fallen off a cliff from there. See any recovery coming 🙂
Thank you
Many thanks Jim!
Sorry about that. In my rush to get out of the house this morning I checked to see that I’d entered the right sell price but not that I’d pasted in the text. Fixed now.
is there any related post with a reason behind the sale of YARIY? been waiting all day!
Love the post Jim- direct and to the point!
I share the views on POT. All of them.
Holding STO
Would like to get out of Mrvl
sold my vxx…up about 10-15% since this market craziness began. SPX tested 1100 and bounced back today, hoping this means there is support at this level and we’re headed back up.
sold tc (three bagger)
Keeping ETP for Dividend
Bsorge – I know the conventional economics model agrees with you, but nobody sells “goods” that way anymore.
In 1930s, the U.S. and Europe could play “beggar thy neighbor” games to weaken their currencies, since everyone sold widgets. These days, most sales are for “widgets + value added services” (generally, one priced in local currency and the other in home currency), with the services component usually a fair bit larger than the widget component (and so much sales is designed for tax management that it’s quite complex to tell precisely who sold what where and to whom anymore).
sigli:
POT is traded much lower than what I sold for. I am not in a hurry to buy it back, I want to see if the market stablizes.
catchers… Jim posted on a different thread that he would update MXWL as his time permitted (or barring other major unrelataed news).
On another note, I see a huge opportunity in POT somewhere soon, and think sellers may miss a huge opportunity. I found IPI’s latest release extremely bullish–they’re going back to full production a.s.a.p., sold tons more than current production, are more worried about not being able to HIRE workers fast enough, and think the potash buying drought is in the past! Deere raised their forecast again today. China is importing corn. Crop prices are still extremely economical for farmers.
I think there is a chance POT catches fire soon. One good bit of news is all it will take for the market to go nuts. It may get crushed in the meantime.
I finally capitulated and bought about 20 minutes before Jim said sell. Obviously I’m down plenty, but it’s starting to look savory. It’s an extremely hard stock to put a value on– asset prices are most likely way undervalued on the books, how to discount their $25/share in investments, what is the potential floor for potash, etc.–so at what point would you back up the truck?
Both MXWL and POT are the kind of stocks that jump up and down very fast. So, your action needs to be fast too. When I had chance to sell @ modest profits, I did. You can always buy them back on dips, though I am no longer interested in MXWL.
Good point bsorge. I was hoping for a narrowing current account deficit, but Euro is going to throw a huge monkey wrench in those plans.
I still would like to hear somebody’s update on Maxwell Technologies. After it fell below $18, Jim reaffirmed. It has now hit as low as $11.50 and there has been no update. Does anybody have thoughts? Jim has a target price of $25 which seems a little or maybe a lot unrealistic.
It seems to me that somewhere along the line with the Euro weekening that this will be very bulliish for European exporters and bad for U.S. exporters as a strong currency. Stocks such as GE lkand Boeing could be hurt badly
donselion:
I sold TC long time ago @ even, because I decided not to put up with that ugly turkey. Sold MCD and ETP several weeks ago at good gains, because I decided to take the gains and run. However, I still hold STO and other oil stocks at loss and I am agonizing about it, because I am a long term oil bull.
Tanerb – concur. Actually, all three of Jim’s recent U.S. purchases (CMI, WHR, and AMT) are now below his original buy price, so they’re all good picks right now if you buy his logic. I’m still not convinced on Marvell and ASML (Intel makes more sense to me, but neither of the other two has much pricing power).
Sold tc to buy sol and nxti
No surprise given the last post’s theme: move out of dead money commodities and certain European shares to raise cash. I’d also expect Thompson, McDonalds, Energy Partners to be on the list of cuts, Statoil to be on the sell list.
i think it is a very good time to buy WHR if you have not in jim’s original post.
Jim:
In your last post of yesterday, you mentioned that you don’t see a “crash” coming in any market of the world. Ed had been posting quite dejavu thoughts. I’s like to hear your take on Ed’s comments. Thanks.
Tom:
I never bought this one, because it did not fit my appetite. That’s how I follow Jim, take his recommendations as advice and make my own decision.