Here’s my preview: CPI inflation report for July due Thursday a.m.
There’s a good chance that the Thursday morning CPI inflation report for July will show a small step backwards in the Fed’s battle against inflation. Here’s the Wall Street consensus as of the end of last week according to FactSet: All-items headline...
Yesterday’s CPI inflation report created a huge dilemma for the Federal Reserve (and your portfolio)–here’s what to watch
Yesterday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that all-items inflation rose at just a 3% annual rate in June. That was a huge drop from the 4% annual rate reported in May. The inflation numbers immediately prompted Wall Street to, again, declare that the Federal...
Huge surge in ADP jobs for June likely means a big surprise on full June jobs report tomorrow
Earlier this week economists were projecting the official government jobs report due on Friday, that is tomorrow, would show that the U.S. economy added just 200,000 jobs in June. This morning, however, the ADP Research Institute’s survey of private employers...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Investing in Inflation
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-ninety-third YouTube Video: Investing in Inflation Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5 Years: Free download for...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Inflation Deserves a Bigger Role in Your Portfolio
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-eighty-seventh YouTube Video: Inflation Deserves a Bigger Role in Your Portfolio Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5...
The Fed’ s political problem just about guarantees a pause to interest rate increases tomorrow
They call it the “headline CPI” for a reason. Today all the headlines I’ve seen tout the drop in headline inflation, the all-items Consumer Price Index, in May to an annual inflation rate of 4.0%. In April the annual inflation rate was 4.9%. The...
April CPI inflation report doesn’t settle anything about Fed rates or rate cuts
CPI inflation ticked lower in April with the all-items (headline) inflation rate nudging down to a year-over-year 4.9%. The core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, also slipped lower to a year-over-year 5.5% from a 5.6% rate in March. On a month-to-month...
Don’t forget tomorrow’s CPI inflation report
Tomorrow, May 10, brings the key CPI inflation report for April. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are projecting that headline inflation will rise at a 5% year-over-year rate. That would match the 5% headline rate for the Consumer Price Index in March. The headline...
Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick Newmont
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-sixty-third YouTube video: Quick Pick Newmont Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5 Years: Free download for...
Yes, falling inflation; yes, sticky inflation–today’s CPI has both
All items inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index rose by just 0.1% in March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. That is a big drop from the 0.4% increase in February. The year-over-year all-items inflation rate fell to 5.0% in March from 6% in...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week Houston, We Have a Trend Problem
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-fifty-eighth YouTube video: Trend of the Week Houston, We Have a Trend Problem Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5...
Wednesday’s CPI inflation report for March is likely to be “less good” than it seems
I expect a disconcerting CPI inflation report for March on Wednesday, April 12. The headline, all-items inflation rate is expected to drop to an annual rate of 5.2% from 6%, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would be good news for the Federal...
More economists worry about Friday’s PCE inflation report
Now it’s not just the Cleveland Fed’s NowCast that’s pointing at problems in Friday’s PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) index inflation report. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project that the core PCE index–that is excluding food...
ECB sticks to inflation fighting with surprise 50 basis point interest rate increase today
The European Central Bank raised its benchmark short-term interest rate by another 50 basis points today. The bank said that the European banking system has strong capital and liquidity positions in spite of problems at Credit Suisse that led that bank to borrow $54...
Please Watch My New YouTube video: The Fed’s Impending Disaster
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-forty-eighth YouTube video: The Fed’s Impending Disaster Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5 Years: Free...
Financial markets aren’t happy with Fed minutes from February 1 meeting
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s February 1 meeting show a central bank anticipating Federal Reserve further increases in interest rates in order to bring inflation down to the Fed’s 2% inflation target. “Participants observed that a restrictive policy...
Please Watch My YouTube Video: 6% Yes, 8% No
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-fortieth YouTube video: 6% Yes, 8% No. Today’s topic is: 6% Yes, 8% No. I’ve been saying that I think 6% is the peak for interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve this cycle. Inflation is not coming down as fast as...
Fed quick out of the blocks after today’s CPI inflation report: Higher interest rates may be needed
You might even think they knew what was coming. (Which of course the Federal Reserve does.) The pixels weren’t even dry on this morning’s CPI inflation report–6.4% year over year, a 10 basis point drop from December, but a 0.5% month-to-month...
Year-over-year inflation rate drops again, but month-to-month rate shows increase
If you remember your college (or high school if you were precocious) calculus, what we’re worrying about now isn’t the rate of inflation, or even the change in the rate of inflation, but the change in the change of the rate of inflation. Or, in other...
Here’s the latest Wall Street consensus on tomorrow’s CPI inflation report
The consensus is that the headline all-in year-over-year inflation rate will come in at 6.2% for January when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the numbers before the New York market open tomorrow February 14. That would be down from an annual 6.5% rate in...
You heard what you wanted to hear in Powell’s Fed talk today
On the one hand, stock markets heard Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterate his comments of last week that “disinflation” had become visible. (Disinflation is a slowing in the inflation rate.) At the close today the Standard & Poor’s 500...
Sell any post-Fed rally–stocks are way ahead of themselves on the Fed, interest rates, and inflation
Here’s what I expect on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee will announce a 25 basis-point interest rate increase. In his post-meeting press conference Fed chair Jerome Powell will try to talk the financial markets out of their...
Stocks can’t quite decide what to make of today’s CPI inflation report
Inflation, measured by the headline CPI (Consumer Price Index) fell 0.1% in December versus November. That brought the annual headline inflation rate to 6.5%. That was exactly what a consensus of economists was looking for. The core DPI, which strips out more volatile...
Friday jobs report coming up
It’s deja vu all over again as New York stock markets reopen for trading tomorrow. We ended 2022 waiting for the monthly jobs report from the Labor Department to tell us when slower job growth would signal the potential end to the Federal Reserve’s cycle...
How sticky will inflation prove to be in 2023? Lessons from Christmas shopping say, Stickier than the market now expects (and the Fed hopes)
The big investing and economic question for 2023 is How hard will it be to push inflation down to something near the Federal Reserve’s 2% target? The answer will determine (at least until rising unemployment gets the Fed to blink in the second half of 2023) how...
Hot enough to make the Fed say ,”75, please”? November jobs report comes in above forecasts
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 263,000 in November, the Labor Department said today. (And the October jobs total was revised upward to a gain of 284,000.) The unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%. Average hourly wages rose 0.6% in November from October. That was the...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: The Fed Is Now On Message–Ask Why
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-eleventh YouTube video: The Fed Is Now On Message–Ask Why Today’s topic: The Fed is Now On Message, Ask Why. Last week I spoke about how confusing the Fed’s messaging had been recently, but this week, everybody has...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Is the Fed Confusing or Just Confused?
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-ninth YouTube video: Is the Fed Confusing or Just Confused? Today’s topic: Is The Fed Confusing, or Just Confused? First, Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed came out with a very mixed message about the Fed’s...
Friday’s release of November jobs report will decide if year-end rally continues
Economists surveyed by FactSet forecast that the November jobs report, set for release Friday morning, will show that the economy added 220,000 new jobs in the month. And that the unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.8% from 3.7% in October If that forecast is...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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