Initial claims for unemployment drops below 1 million for last week
The number of workers applying for unemployment benefits from state unemployment programs fell below 1 million for the week ended August 8. At 963,000 the number was below the 1.18 million new claims for the week of August 1. Economists had expected initial claims of...
So why was Friday’s jobs report for July so worrying?
On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added 1.8 million jobs in July. Not a bad number, on an absolute scale. 1.8 million jobs is a lot of jobs. And the total did beat economists’ expectations by about 300,000 jobs. But…...
Stocks test rotation again today
This is a pattern that I’m looking for in the U.S. stock market right now. (Notice, please the “a.” It’s not the only pattern worth watching at the moment.) The next stage in this upward trending market may not be a reversal of the general...
ADP private payrolls report foreshadows negative government July jobs report due Friday
The ADP Research Institute report on private payrolls doesn’t always track with the government’s monthly jobs report, but the trends usually matches up. Which argues that Friday’s July jobs report will show that the economy and the labor market took...
Congress blows it on the economy
The Senate left Washington yesterday without putting its plan for the next coronavirus aid package on the table. That guarantees, in case you had any doubt, that the enhanced $600 a week unemployment benefit that, for practical purposes, expires with today’s...
Market is amazingly calm today–all things considered
Let’s see. The Senate went home for the weekend without passing an extension to the $600 a week in enhanced unemployment benefits–so that program will pay out its last checks tomorrow. China retaliated for U.S. action to close China’s Houston...
Quickly, some of the Trump administration’s lines in the sand for the next coronavirus rescue package get washed away
You remember those lines in sand that the Trump White House declared before it began talks with the leaders of the Republican-controlled Senate? Well, a number of them have already vanished, washed out of existence by the fears of Republican Senators that the White...
Banks start off earnings season by pouring cold water on V-shaped recovery
“I don’t think anybody should leave any bank earnings call this quarter simply feeling like the worst is absolutely behind us and it’s a rosy path ahead,” Citigroup (C) CEO Michael Corbat said this morning as he announced the bank’s second quarter earnings. “We...
Royal Dutch Shell to take $15 to $22 billion second quarter write down
It’s a measure of how dire things are in the oil sector that Royal Dutch Shell (RDS-A) has announced a write down of between $15 billion and $22 billion for the second quarter. The write down is larger than the $17.5 billion write down that BP (BP) took in June...
New claims for unemployment rise by 1.54 million for week ended June 6
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits continued to trend lower with 1.54 million workers applying in the week ended June 6. That’s down from 1.9 million initial claims in the prior week. (Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected 1.55 million...
In huge surprise unemployment rate drops of 13.3% as economy adds 2.5 million jobs in May–by the official numbers
The U.S. economy added 2.5 million jobs in May, the Labor Department reported today. The official rate of unemployment fell to 13.3% from 14.7%. In April the economy had shed 20.5 million jobs. Economists were surprised by the gains, to put it mildly. The consensus...
Anticipating more rally for the end of this week: slower growth in new claims for unemployment (Thursday) and in job cuts (Friday) likely to be seen as signs of a bottom for economy
Tomorrow it’s Thursday and time for another weekly report on initial claims for unemployment. In absolute terms the numbers are likely to be grim. Economists project that tomorrow’s report will show another 1.8 million workers have filed new claims for...
Jim’s Extra! A near-term threat to the V-shaped recovery
Stock prices–3068.76 on for the Standard & Poor’s 500 as of 1 p.m. New York time today–continue to climb toward the all-time closing record for the S&P 500 at 3386.15 set on February 19. That makes some sense if you believe that the Federal...
Can stocks now count on a Trump Put?
I think we witnessed the birth of a Trump Put on the stock market in today’s Rose Garden press event that investors and traders can pin beside their terminals along with the Powell Put from the Federal Reserve. Ahead of what had been billed as an announcement...
New claims for unemployment 2.12 million for week ended May 23
The stock market is seeing the glass as half full this morning. This morning the Labor Department reported that 2.12 million Americans filed new claims for unemployment in the week that ended on May 23. That is down from 2.45 million initial claims in the prior week...
Jim’s Extra! Of the 3 reasons I think the re-opening economy will disappoint, the biggest is state budget cuts
Jim’s Extras are something new that I’ve added to JubakPicks.com. Jim’s Extras are posts that provide a wider economic or market analysts than the normal diet here of stock specific posts or posts that cover the day’s market moves. Like...
Mortgage delinquencies soar in April
The number of borrowers who stopped paying their home loans jumped by 1.6 million last month, according to data from Black Knight, a real estate analytics company. The national mortgage delinquency rate rose to 6.45% in April, up from 3.06% in March. That’s...
Another 2.4 million workers filed initial claims for unemployment last week–but take the data with a grain of statistical salt
According to the Department of Labor another 2.4 million Americans filed initial claims for unemployment in the week that ended May 16. That puts the total from this report at 38.6 million initial claims for unemployment filed in the last 9 weeks. The two-month total...
Selling Illinois Tool Works out of my Dividend Portfolio to make room for new dividend strategy and new picks
My second sell of the day. Way back in November 2019–if you remember a period when projected earnings growth was strong and before the coronavirus recession–I argued for a dividend strategy that focused on companies with fast growing and solidly...
Selling Visa out of Dividend Portfolio to make room for new dividend strategy and picks
Way back in November 2019–if you remember a period when projected earnings growth was strong and before the coronavirus recession–I argued for a dividend strategy that focused on companies with fast growing and solidly predictable earnings that were, in my...
Stocks roar ahead on perfect storm of good news
As of 1 p.m. New York time today, May 18, the Standard & Poor’s 500 is up 3.17% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is higher by 3.60%. The NASDAQ Composite has climbed 2.47% and the Russell 2000 small cap index is ahead 5.29%. The iShares Emerging Markets...
Retail sales plunge 16.4% in April
U.S. retail sales fell 16.4% in April from March levels, the Commerce Department reported today. March itself had seen an 8.3% month to month drop. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for a 12% decline. In a separate report from the Federal Reserve today...
Weekly new claims for unemployment near 3 million again, above projections from economists
Initial jobless claims totaled 2.98 million for the week ended May 9, the Labor Department reported today. That’s down from last week’s 3.18 million claims and marks a sixth straight week of declines. But the figure was higher than the 2.5 million claims...
Two negative views of the oil market–and one’s from OPEC
It will take more than a year, and perhaps several years, for oil demand to recover to what it was before the coronavirus pandemic, said Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency ahead of Thursday’s update on energy markets. Crude demand...
Now it’s the Fed’s Powell’s turn to push stocks lower, urge Congress to provide more coronavirus money
Yesterday, I argued that the barrage of cautionary comments from Federal Reserve officials seemed designed to talk stock prices lower and to push Congress toward a new bigger coronavirus rescue package. (Why might the Fed want to slow the current rally? The only...
Federal Reserve puts its corporate-bond-buying vehicle in motion
On March 23, the Federal Reserve announced that it would create a facility to buy corporate bunds and ETFs tracking the corporate bond market. That facility remained an all-talk/no-action vehicle until today when the New York Federal Reserve Bank announced that its...
Jim’s Extra!! Deflation or a spike in inflation in 2020-21: A tale of two fatter-than-expected tails
Jim’s Extras are something new that I’ve added to JubakPicks.com. Jim’s Extras are posts that provide a wider economic or market analysts than the normal diet here of stock specific posts or posts that cover the day’s market moves. Like...
And the earnings estimates are tumbling down: stocks get more expensive on forward earnings
On March 31 Wall Street analysts were projecting a decline in first quarter earnings of 6.9% for the stocks in the Standard & Poor’s 500, according to Factset. As of May 8, with 86% of the S&P 500 reporting, the consensus projection for the quarter was...
The Fed speaks and speaks and speaks this week: Will all the words push Congress on more spending for coronavirus rescue?
Due to a quirk in the Federal Reserve calendar, the central bank doesn’t meet in May. (Next meeting June 10; last meeting April 29.) That means the Fed has lots of time to jawbone the financial markets and Congress in an effort to get Washington to provide more...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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