China Covid cases near April peak; Beijing, Shanghai tighten restrictions
On Monday China reported 28,127 new domestically transmitted Covid cases on Monday as the country neared its April peak. Infections in the southern city of Guangzhou and the southwestern municipality of Chongqing accounted for about half the total. In Beijing, cases...
Have the best of Thanksgivings
Tomorrow, Wednesday, is a travel day for me so I can get arrive early enough to help with the Thursday preparation. (I’m a deft hand at slicing brussels sprouts.) I’ll be returning to New York on Saturday and will be back in the saddle posting on Sunday....
It’s a short week but with lots of potential worry and volatility
What’s on tap for this week? Volatility, volatility, volatility. Even though it’s a short Thanksgiving market week. Worry over the cryptocurrency meltdown of cryptocurrency exchange FTX. According to a Saturday bankruptcy filing in Delaware, FTX owes...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week Time for Utilities?
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-seventh YouTube video. This week’s Trend of the Week: Time for Utilities? I think it is. Looking at Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU), you can see the recent dip in utilities, which means yields are up. On top of that, I...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: 10% More to This Rally?
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-sixth YouTube video Today’s topic: 10% More to this Rally? The S&P rose above 4,000 Tuesday morning leading investors and analysts to forecast this rally climbing about 10% higher. Looking at a chart of the S&P 500 for...
Fed talks; stocks retreat
Is the Federal Reserve now in the business of talking down stock prices whenever investors get too optimistic about interest rates? It sure looked like it today. Today, Wednesday, November 15, New York Fed President John Williams ended the day’s rally when he...
Earnings from Nvidia and Walmart could move the market this week
Expect a ton of earnings reports as third-quarter earnings season hits its stride. A few could even move a sector or maybe even the market as a whole. The biggie for the week, I’d argue, is Nvidia (NVDA) on Wednesday, November 16, after the market close. But...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week U.S . Oil Production not Rising as Expected
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-fifth YouTube video. This week’s Trend of the Week: U.S. Oil Production is Not Rising as Expected. Oil prices have averaged $100 per barrel over 2022–a figure that would normally lead oil companies to expand production and...
A big date on your DC investing calendar: December 16 is when the U.S.. government’s spending authorization lapses
Back in September, Congress passed yet another stopgap continuing resolution to fund the U.S. government. That authority lapses on December 16. No new funding authorization bill, no more government spending, and a shutdown of all except the most critical government...
CPI inflation comes in below economists’ consensus projections
This morning, November 10, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the annual inflation rate fell to 7.7% in October. That was below the 8.2% annual are in September and below the 7.9% annual rate project by economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal. The...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick BUD
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-fourth YouTube video. This week’s Quick Pick is Anheuser-Busch Inbev (NYSE: BUD). Beer is a good counter-cyclical consumer good because demand for beer doesn’t really go down during a recession. Anheuser-Busch is a...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Capital Cycles and Recession
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-third YouTube video. Today’s topic: Capital Cycles and Recession – they are not the same thing. When we talk about a recession, we’re largely talking about a consumer demand recession. Separately, there is a...
Meanwhile… there’s tomorrow’s release of CPI inflation for October
It’s likely to be days, weeks, months–if we have to wait from a December runoff vote in the Georgia Senate race–before we know who controls what house of Congress and by how many seats. In the meantime, tomorrow, November 10, brings the October CPI...
Treasury has truly terrible, no good, bad auction day–that doesn’t help market mood
The stock market hates uncertainty. So with the control of Congress still undecided after yesterday’s election, the last thing investors needed was a shaky auction of 10-Year Treasuries today. But that’s exactly what financial markets got: One of the worst...
Looking for signs of credit cycle trouble? Subprime credit cards show worrying signs
We’re at the point in the credit cycle when lenders and borrowers can get into trouble. The typical pattern is that lenders looking to keep loan balances climbing loosen up on lending standards and extend more credit to less qualified customers just as a slowing...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Mud Season Looms in the Ukraine War
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-second YouTube video. This week’s Trend of the Week: Mud Season in Ukraine. During World War II, the western powers were hoping for a tough mud season to slow down the war and make it harder for Germans to race into Poland....
This week it’s CPI inflation time again
Another big macroeconomic report to hang over stocks, depressing volatility. After all, who wants to get out ahead of Thursday’s Consumer Price Index inflation report for October? Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project that CPI headline inflation will slip to...
Stocks rise but bonds fall in trading before mid-term elections
Today, November 7, stocks rose before tomorrow’s mid-term elections. The Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 0.96%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher by 1.31%. The NASDAQ Composite rose 0.85% and the NASDAQ 100 added 1.11%. The small-cap Russell...
Is the today’s jobs number a lagging indicator of labor market strength? Tech layoffs in the last few weeks say, Yes
On Thursday, November 3, Lyft (LYFT) said it would trim 13% of its staff, or around 683 people. Amazon announced a “pause” on corporate hiring after halting hiring in its retail division last month. And Apple (AAPL) has suspended hiring for jobs outside of...
Pivot hopes are back and stocks rally on stronger than expected jobs report. (Go figure!)
Economists were expecting a light October jobs report this morning with projections from economists surveyed by Bloomberg at 195,000. Instead, the Labor Department reported that the economy added 261,000 jobs in October. (And revised the September report up to 315,000...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick Brazil
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-first YouTube video: Quick Pick Brazil ETF EWZ This week’s Quick Pick is Brazil, iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (NYSEARCA: EWZ). While the election in Brazil isn’t totally over with an actual concession speech, it’s clear...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Federal Reserve, Mind the Gap!
Today I posted my two-hundredth YouTube video: Federal Reserve: Mind the Gap! Today is Ground Hog Day for the Federal Reserve. The U.S. central bank will announce whether or not it sees its shadow. It’s predicted to announce a 75 basis point increase in interest...
Not what the market wanted to hear from the Fed today
At first investors and traders thought they heard the Federal Reserve signal that the central bank was thinking about a pivot to a policy of cutting interest rates. And stocks rallied. But then Fed chair Jerome Powell “clarified” the Fed’s thinking...
Just before Fed interest rate decision, big rise in job openings results in second thoughts
The JOLTS survey from the Department of Labor showed a big jump in job openings in September. Which raised market worries that the Fed will raise interest rates tomorrow, November 2, by a hefty 75 basis points and signal that it is farther away from a pivot toward...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Picks General Motors
Today I posted my one-hundred-ninety-ninth YouTube video: Quick Pick GM This week’s Quick Pick is General Motors (NYSE: GM). On Monday morning, October 25, GM announced third-quarter revenue earnings of $41.89 billion-slightly below the $42 billion that Wall...
U.S. GDP breaks losing streak in third quarter, but below the headlines bad news of a recession lurks
Today, October 27, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that U.S. GDP grew by an annualized 2.6% rate (adjusted for inflation) in the third quarter. That was better than the 2.4% rate that economists had projected. After two down quarters to begin the year, this...
Meta Platforms closes down 24.56% today–and I don’t think it’s enough
Okay, quarterly revenue and earnings reported yesterday after the market close stank up the joint. Revenue at Facebook’s parent, fell 4.5% in the quarter, a second consecutive drop in quarterly revenue to $27.7 billion. Wall Street forecasts called for $27.4...
Microsoft beats but tumbles on showdown in cloud revenue
Microsoft (MSFT) managed to beat Wall Street earnings estimates for its fiscal first quarter, reporting earnings of $2.35 a share versus the $2.29 expected by analysts after the market close on October 25. But the stock is down strongly today, October 26, on the...
Google kicks off Big Tech earnings with a stinker
Alphabet (GOOG) reported a drop of 24% in third-quarter earnings after the market closed on Tuesday, October 25. Gross revenue rose just 6% to $69.09 billion. In the third quarter of 2021, revenue grew by just 6% to $69.09 billion from the third quarter of 2021. In...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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