This week’s China deal parade begins–look for a chance to add gold on weakness
Heading into Thursday’s high profile meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping the White House has announced that negotiators have reached a framework for a trade deal to avert additional U.S. 100% tariffs that President Donald Trump...
Bad news, good news on coal use, and renewable energy in 2024
Coal use hit a record high around the world last year. According to the International Energy Agency, global coal use rose to 8.8 to 8.9 billion metric tonnes in 2024. That was the highest use ever recorded and 1% to 2.3% higher than in 2023. It was a third straight...
My sixth pick for the energy crisis: CCJ
Yesterday in my Special Report on the energy crisis on my subscription site JubakAM.Com I made Cameco my sixth pick. Third, the intense competition to lock up sources of decently priced and reliable electricity: Pick #6: Cameco (CCJ))
Health insurance sticker shock begins to hit home
This can’t be good for consumers, families, or the general economy. Sign up pages for state ObamaCare–AKA the Affordable Care Act–health insurance show that premiums nationwide are set to rise by 18% on average, according to an analysis of preliminary rate...
My fifth pick for my energy crisis Special Report is GNRC
Pick #5 for my energy crisis Special Report on my subscription site JubajAM.com is Generac GNRC) Generac’s brand is synonymous with the home standby generator category. The company’s market share in the category is about 75% today and has been over 70% for the last...
My fourth pick for my Energy Crises Special Report: SMNEY
Pick #4 for my energy crisis Special Report on my subscription site JubakAM.com is Siemens Energy (SMNEY.) Think about the state of the electricity grid in the United States and pretty much everywhere in the world over the next decade.The grid will be stressed by the...
It’s show me week for beating earnings expectations
I’d what I’d call a week of setups for big earnings reports to come. I think this week is critical for continuing this rally, which is based right now on expectations for strong third- and fourth-quarter earnings. For instance, on Tuesday, October 21, Netflix (NFLX)...
Walmart pops 7% in two days on news that it will sell stuff on ChatGPT–here’s what that means for the AI bubble/boom
Walmart (WMT) will “team” up with OpenAI to enable shoppers to browse and purchase its products on ChatGPT. Users will be able to shop Walmart’s catalog directly on ChatGPT by clicking a “buy” button.The catalog includes apparel, entertainment, packaged food and...
Next 2 picks in my Special Report on the energy crisis: BEPC and LNG
Call this bookkeeping to make sure everyone is on the same page. Last week I made two picks for my Special Report on the 3 energy crises for the NOW stage in this crisis: BEPC and LNG. Here’s what I wrote on my JubakAM.Com subscription site: My second pick for the NOW...
Again? Trump announced 100% tariffs on China–today we got a big TACO rally
On Friday President Donald Trump said he would impose a new 100% tariff on goods from China, after Chinese leader Xi Jinping issued new export restrictions on rare earth minerals essential for technology products Trump made the threat shortly after the markets closed...
For the week ahead, expect gold to be the winner from the shutdown
The government shutdown will push gold past $4,000 an ounce. That would be a double in less than two years. Gold closed at $3908 an ounce on Friday. Gold was hot before the shutdown because it benefits from lower interest rates that reduce the opportunity cost of...
My first pick for my Special Report: The 3 Energy Crises is JCI
If you want to read all of this Special Report on our 3 energy crises you can subscribe at JubakAM.COM My picks for the NOW stage of our 3 energy crises. I’m making Johnson Controls International (JCI) my first pick in this Special Report. Johnson Controls as a market...
Here are the stock market movers for the week ahead
Expect something macro and something micro. The macro? The September Jobs Report will be released on Friday morning before the financial markets open. . Economists expect a weak tally of 50,000 job additions and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.3%. With...
Trump’s announcement of 100% drug tariffs looks like a non-event for investors
Thursday, September, 25, on Truth Social President Donald Trump announced “Starting on October 1st, 2025, we will be imposing a 100% Tariff on any branded or patented Pharmaceutical Product, unless a Company IS BUILDING their Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Plant in...
For consumers in the lower half of the income scale, the recession has already arrived
Lower income consumers are getting squeezed and it’s likely to get worse. Working-class Americans are facing slowing wage growth and rising housing and electricity bills. And they’re about to feel more pressure from tariffs and from higher healthcare costs as a result...I’m selling shares of Lithium Americas after a 100% jump in two days
Shares of Lithium Americas (LAC) jumped 95.8% yesterday, September 25, and then tacked on a 22.3% more today on news reports that the Trump Administration is seeking an equity stake in the lithium mining company. The White House has proposed converting some part of a...
It’s not just the U.S.–China’s college grads face a jobs problem too, one big enough to upend China’s economy
The unemployment rate for U.S. recent college graduates (ages 23–27) is 4.59% in 2025, up from 3.25% in 2019. That’s higher than the unemployment rate for the U.S. population as whole, which stood at 4.3% in August. That’s an inversion of the historical trend. I’m...
Bookkeeping update: Sells of KVUE and NKE in my Special Report: “10 better dividend stocks for a dangerous market”
Just so we’re all on the same page: I’ve made two more sells in my Special Report: “10 better dividend stocks for a dangerous market” On September 19: Kenvue KVUE.I’d call this a RFK Jr, sell. Except that there are additional good reasons to worry about Kenvue...
More than $1.5 billion in crypto positions were liquidated Monday: What was that all about?
$1.5 to 1.8 billion in leveraged long positions in crypto currency assets were liquidated within 24 hours Monday, marking the largest such event of the year. Some 370,000 to 400,000 traders took a hit. The wave of forced selling occurred as Bitcoin and Ethereum prices...
Another sign of risk: margin loans soar
Now that the September Federal Reserve interest rate cut is behind us, I’m looking for increased attention to signs of risk in stocks trading at record highs. Not that I expect much in the way of selling. But we could have an outbreak of handwringing as buyers keep on...
I expect BIG DRAMA behind the scenes at today’s Fed meeting
I expect big drama and suspense from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, September 17. Oh, not from the Fed’s decision on interest rates. The Fed Funds Futures market is pricing in a 96% chance that the Fed’s Open Market Committee will cut the benchmark interest rate by...
VIX fear index continues to fall–can this market get more complacent?
The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index, the so-called fear index, fell another 2.83% yesterday, August 28, to 14.43. Hedge funds are betting the calm will last: they are shorting the VIX at rates not seen in three years. Hedge funds and large speculators were net...
Nvidia drops 3.03% after earnings as market decides 56% data center growth isn’t good enough
Nvidia’s basic problem is that investor expectations are so high that the company struggles to meet them. In the quarter ended on July 27, results released today after the close of trading, Nvidia said it earned an adjusted $1.05 per share on $46.74 billion in...
Is Walmart the perfect retail stock for this economy? Adding it to my Jubak Picks Portfolio
I think last week’s 3.17% drop in Walmart (WMT) shares is an opportunity to buy the stock of a retailer that seem perfectly matched with this economy. Tariff increases, an up tick in inflation and a slowing economy have left consumers strapped and looking for...
Powell in Jackson Hole tells the financial markets what they wanted to hear
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell carefully opened the door to an interest-rate cut in September, pointing to rising risks for the labor market even as worries over inflation remain. “The stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows us...
Wait, you mean there might not be a September interest rate cut?
Ahead of Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s Friday speech at the central bankers’ conclave in Jackson Hole, four (and counting) Fed governors spoke up to cast doubt on the inevitability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the Fed’s September 17 meeting. Odds...
Trump’s tariffs hit small business especially hard–and these companies account for half of all job creation
Small U.S. companies, the source of more than half of the country’s job creation in recent years, are struggling to comply with President Donald Trump’s new tariffs and cope with growing financial strains clobbering them from higher import costs. The U.S. Chamber of...
If August 1 tariffs don’t lead to a climb in volatility in the next few weeks, it will be time to rethink options bets
I’m looking for volatility’s last stand in the next few weeks. Stock market volatility, as measured by the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) just refuses to move higher. Tariff hikes? Who cares. Speculation that the President will fire the head of the...
The 2025 spending plan front-loads tax cuts and pushes out spending reductions
If you’re trying to figure out the economic impact of the fiscal 2025 spending bill just passed by Congress, you need to look not just at what’s in the bill, but when its provisions go into effect. Republican politicians who voted for the bill are, after all,...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
Every post from Jubak Picks straight to your mailbox. And they're free!