Everybody is busy drawing red lines in the debt ceiling talks–and they keep moving
This reporting from the Washington Post this morning makes me very pessimistic about any debt ceiling deal until after the first checks DON’T go out on June 1 or whenever. “During a closed meeting Tuesday morning at a GOP hangout a block from the U.S....
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week Gold with a Copper Kicker
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It’s not over until it’s over: More Fed officials talk about more interest rate increases
Last week Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed could hold off on another interest rate increase at its June 14 meeting. That comment wz one reason that the CME FedWath tool showed the odds of no increase at the meeting jumping to 82.6% on Friday, May...
Today Target echoes yesterday’s caution from Home Depot on consumer spending
Target (TGT) easily beat Wall Street earnings projections for the company’s fiscal first quarter with a report yesterday May 16 after the close with a report of $2.05 a share. Analysts were looking for $1.80 a share. Earnings were down, however, 6.2%...
Consumer credit showing signs of stress
The typical pattern is for households to run up credit card balances for holiday shopping and then for consumers to pay down credit card balances in the first quarter. That’s what happens in a healthy economy where consumers are living within their means and...
Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week Credit Squeeze
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Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick Albemarle
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The problem with Goldilocks (if you’re an investor or trader)
The Producer Price Index rose 0.25% in April from March and at a 2.3% rate year-over-year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, May 11. This index measures prices at the wholesale level–changes at that level eventually show up in the prices that...
April CPI inflation report doesn’t settle anything about Fed rates or rate cuts
CPI inflation ticked lower in April with the all-items (headline) inflation rate nudging down to a year-over-year 4.9%. The core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, also slipped lower to a year-over-year 5.5% from a 5.6% rate in March. On a month-to-month...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Lots of Volatility But It’s Not Tradeable
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-seventy-first YouTube Video: Lots of Volatility But It’s Not Tradeable. Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5...
“Smart” money begins to question the speed of Fed interest rate cuts
There’s always the question of exactly how smart the smart money is, but I find these moves from big Wall Street names interesting as I look for any signs of cracks in the current consensus looking for a quick pivot to interest rate cuts from the Federal...
Don’t forget tomorrow’s CPI inflation report
Tomorrow, May 10, brings the key CPI inflation report for April. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are projecting that headline inflation will rise at a 5% year-over-year rate. That would match the 5% headline rate for the Consumer Price Index in March. The headline...
The next big potential volatility event? Tomorrow’s White House meeting on the debt ceiling
The next potential BIG volatility day comes on Tuesday, May 9, when President Joe Biden is scheduled to meet with Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy will hold talks on raising the debt ceiling to avert a U.S. default. I don’t expect a breakthrough of any...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week Where Is All That Oil Cash Going to Go?
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-seventieth YouTube Video: Trend of the Week Where Is All That Oil Cash Going to Go? Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next...
Please stand by–we’re having technical difficulties with our portfolio price feed
Every once in a while, Yahoo changes “something” on its feed of stock prices. No notification. No clue what to do if the change breaks something on a user’s site. Well, that’s where I found myself and this site again on Friday. We know there...
Economic reports this morning start a down day ahead of the Fed meeting tomorrow
This isn’t exactly what the stock market wanted to hear ahead of the Wednesday, May 3, meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee on interest rates. Before the open of the New York Stock Exchange, the Labor Department’s March Job Openings...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week The Pain is Spreading
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Omph, that wasn’t good inflation news today–but still, go figure, stocks climbed
The headline Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, climbed at 4.2% in the year through March. That was a big drop from the 5.1% year-over-year rate in February. (Although, I’d note, economists were...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Look Out Below! Central Banks to Take Away $1 Trillion in Cash
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-sixty-fifth YouTube video: Central Banks to Take Away $1 Trillion in Cash Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5 Years:...
Microsoft soars on earnings, so I’m selling the shares I bought for my Volatility Portfolio on my subscription site (but keeping other positions)
Back on March 24, I added shares of Microsoft (MSFT) to my Volatility Portfolio on my subscription JubakAM.com site on the thinking that in a quarter when earnings were projected to be down for the Standard & Poor’s 500 as a whole, reliable technology...
The stock market is trading in narrower and narrower bands
Important observation out of Morningstar on Friday. While the Morningstar U.S. Market Index is up 15.4% from its bear-market low on October 14, the market is only 1.4% higher than it was at the end of November. AND in recent months, the stock market has been moving in...
Intuitive Surgical reports a surprisingly strong first quarter
Last week Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) surprised everybody, including, apparently, management. Intuitive Surgical’s first-quarter revenue grew 14% year-over-year to $1.7 billion. (Wall Street was expecting $1.6 billion.) Surgical procedures performed using the...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week Consumers Are Falling Behind on Their Debt Payments
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-sixty-fourth YouTube video: Trend of the Week Consumers Are Falling Behind on Their Debt Payments Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing...
Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick Newmont
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-sixty-third YouTube video: Quick Pick Newmont Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5 Years: Free download for...
Tesla margins worse than expected and stock tumbles today
Tesla’s (TSLA) first-quarter earnings, reported yesterday April 19, after the market close, met expectations. But first-quarter automotive gross profit margins came in worse than expected. Tesla reported a profit of 85 cents a share, meeting expectations, on...
Truly bad “possibilities” on a debt ceiling default move up in the calendar
The exact date that the federal government could run out of accounting gimmicks and actually default on the national debt is open to debate. Could be June or July or as late as December or even sometime in 2024. The estimates are all over the block. Which is one...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week Banks–It Can Still Get Worse
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-sixty-first YouTube video: Trend of the Week Banks–It Can Still Get Worse Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5...
This week the story isn’t big bank earnings, but it’s still bank earnings
I expect the earnings season story to continue to be dominated by banks. But whereas last week, Friday specifically, was all about big banks, this coming week will be dominated by earnings reports from regional and smaller banks. The very kind of banks that are the...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Earnings Season Blues
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-fifty-ninth YouTube video: Trend of the Week Houston, We Have a Trend Problem Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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