As Fed cools the housing market, Lennar starts cutting home prices, adds incentives to buyers
Home builder Lennar (LEN) has started trimming prices and offering buyer incentives to bolster sales. The bad news here is that a slowing housing market is an early indicator of rising odds of a recession. The good news is that this is supposed to be what...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: “Ouch! The Fed Gets Honest About Inflation”
My one-hundred-and-forty-eighth YouTube video “Ouch! The Fed Gets Honest About Inflation” went up today. In front of the Senate Finance Committee today, Fed chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed has all the tools it needs to fight inflation–except,...
Existing home sales hit two-year low in May–as prices see record high and mortgage rates rise
U.S. existing home sales tumbled to a two-year low in May as prices jumped to a record high-topping the $400,000 mark for the first time- and mortgage rates increased further, the National Association of Realtors reported today, June 21. It was the fourth straight...
Consumer savings rate plunges to post-Great Recession low; bad news on recession odds
A deeply troubling look at consumer balances from Statista. Well, deeply troubling if you hope that the United States will avoid a recession. (Frankly, I’m in the “Hope we avoid but I’m afraid we won’t camp.”) In April, Americans saved...
Biting the (Federal Reserve) bullet and selling two yield ETFs out of my Dividend Portfolio
I’ve overstayed my welcome in the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) and the VanEck Preferred Securities ex-Financials ETF (PFXF), but with the Federal Reserve accelerating its interest rate increases, I think selling these two members of my Dividend...
Selling Booking Holdings out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio
As I noted in my “Bear Growls Louder for Consumer Stocks” post, consumer spending on services is looking weaker by the day and consumers seem to be trimming plans for summer travel. Bookings are slowing at airlines and hotels, for example. And it looks...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Rip the Band-Aid Off on Interest Rates
My one-hundred-and-forty-seventh YouTube video “Rip the Band-Aid Off on Interest Rates” went up today. My Trend of the Week video this week looks at hedge fund gurus who have been yelling that the Federal Reserve needs even bigger interest rate increases...
Bear growls louder for consumer stocks
I’m seeing growing negativity on the U.S. economy and on the timing and depth of a U.S. recession. I think it’s important to note that the stock market and the economy aren’t perfectly correlated. Stocks can go up even as the economy weakens on...
The speculative money is alive and “well” during Bear Market rally days
Friday, June 17, was a modestly up day for most of the indexes. The Standard & Poor’s 500, for example, gained 0.22% and the NASDAQ was up a stronger 1.43%. (The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.13% on the day.) But you’d never know that the...
Buying U.S. Natural Gas Fund in my Jubak Picks Portfolio
I’m using the continued weakness in natural gas prices and in the U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG) to add the shares to my Jubak Picks Portfolio. The U.S. Natural Gas Fund was down another 5.90% today to close at $23.78. A fire at the Freeport LNG facility, which...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Quick Pick U.S. Natural Gas–update
My one-hundred-and-forty-sixth YouTube video “Quick Pick U.S. Natural Gas Fund–update” went up today. The fire at the Freeport Liquified Natural Gas facility has disrupted U.S exports of natural gas. That’s resulted in a short-term glut in U.S....
It’s a war of two narratives–today “recession” narrative replaces “rate cut” narrative and stocks fall heavily
Yesterday, the stock market was up with the Standard & Poor’s 500 gaining 1.46% on the day and the NASDAQ Composite up 2.49%. Listening to the Federal Reserve’s policy statement after the June 15 meeting of its Open Market Committee, Wall Street chose...
Fed’s Dot Plot projections on economy, inflation, interest rates could have been much worse–wait for better times in 2024, central bank says
The projections released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, June 15–the so-called Dot Plot–show a central bank that sees a tough 2022, especially on interest rates and inflation, but a definite improvement in 2024. This fits with the developing Wall...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Fed Hike Makes the Market Happy
My one-hundred-and-forty-fifth YouTube video “Fed Hikes Make the Market Happy” went up today. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points today–instead of the 50 points so widely expected just weeks ago–and stocks rallied....
A bigger than consensus 75 basis-point interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve tomorrow could produce a stock market rally
I know this seems bass-ackwards. Stocks have spent two days in a vigorous sell off because of fears of higher interest rates and worries, after Friday’s surprise surge in CPI inflation to an 8.6% annual rate in May, that the Fed might decide to raise interest...
Adding Truist Financial to my Dividend Portfolio
On Friday in my Quick Pick video on YouTube (Have you subscribed yet–why not? It’s free and that way you’ll know when a new video goes up) I said I would add Truist Financial (TFC) to my Dividend Portfolio on Monday. And so I will. My rule of thumb...
Please Watch my New YouTube Video: China Stocks Soar on End to Tech Crackdown
My one-hundred-and-forty-fourth YouTube video “China Stocks Soar on End to Tech Crackdown” went up today. In the past few weeks–at least before the inflation/interest rate meltdown in U.S. markets–I’ve seen an uptick in big China stocks...Fed faces inflation “disaster” as data show signs that inflation expectations are becoming embedded
The latest Consumer Expectations survey (that is for May) from the New York Federal Reserve shows U.S. households’ anticipate inflation will rise at a 6.6% annual rate over the next year. That’s up from April expectations for a 6.3% rate. The May...
Watch my new YouTube Video: Quick Pick Truist Financial
My one-hundred-and-forty-third YouTube video “Quick Pick Truist Financial” went up today. My Quick Pick this week is Truist Financial Corp (TFC), a “super-regional” bank based in the Southeast. Bank stocks have been down recently on rising...
Stocks plunge as May CPI inflation rises to 8.6%
Headline Consumer Price Index inflation in May rose to a new annual high rate of 8.6% in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, June 10. Headline prices rose 1% from April. The big drivers were, as expected, food (with prices up at a 10.1% annual rate)...
Please Watch My New You Tube Video: “The Treasury Yield Tide Is Rising”
My one-hundred-and-forty-second YouTube video “The Treasury Yield Tide Is Rising” went up today. Yields are up for 2-, 5-, and 10-year Treasuries. I’m also seeing higher expectations for more rate increases in the coming Fed meetings with the odds...
Taiwan Semiconductor raises revenue forecast–China worry not priced in so far
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), the world’s largest independent chip producer, expects revenue to grow about 30% in 2022. Sales growth this year should accelerate from 2021’s 24.9% (in dollar terms), Chairman Mark Liu said at the company’s annual...
Another day, another downgrade for global economic growth
On Wednesday, June 8, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is fueling rapid inflation and slowing global growth. (The OECD represents 38 countries including most of the world’s advanced economies.) “We are...
Target outlook cut says some retailers have an inventory problem
Target (TGT) cut its profit outlook for the second time in three weeks. The company will attack oaring inventories in discretionary categories such as home furnishings with price mark downs, cancelling orders from vendors, and “off-loading excess inventory. (To...
Fertilizer demand looks to fall as North American farmers plant less in reaction to higher prices
Logic says that demand for fertilizer should be soaring as North American farmers look to increase production at a time when grain prices are near record highs thanks to the severe reduction in exports from the Ukraine and Russia. Logic, however, looks to be wrong. An...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Trend of the Week Danger of a Lithium Drought
My one-hundredth-and-forty-first YouTube video “Trend of the Week: Danger of a Lithium Drought” went up today. My Trend of the Week video looks at the effects of Chile’s 15-year drought on global lithium production and prices. In particular, I look...
Wall Street analysts cut earnings estimates for Q2–how significant is that?
As of June 3, FactSet reports, analysts had cut their earnings estimates during the first two months of the quarter for second quarter earnings by companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 by 1.3% to $55.36 from $56.06. How significant is that? And what does...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Quick Picks Wyndham Hotels
My one-hundredth-and-fortieth YouTube video “Quick Pick Wyndham Hotels” went up today. My Quick Pick this week is Wyndham Hotels (WH), which owns a large portion (40%) of the U.S. market in branded economy and midscale hotels. This is gearing up to be a...
May jobs comes in stronger than expected; that should put the kibosh on thoughts of a Fed pause in September
The U.S. economy added 390,000 jobs in May, the Labor Department reported this morning. Economists had expected the economy to add 318.000 jobs for the month. In April the economy added a revised 436,000 jobs. The unemployment rate stayed steady at 3.6%. Economists...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
Every post from Jubak Picks straight to your mailbox. And they're free!
Get Even More Jim!
- • More profiles of hot (and cold) sectors
- • More strategies for profiting from volatility
- • More about macro trends driving the market
- • More on where the market is heading – short-, medium- and long-term – including a Saturday Night Quarterback look at the week ahead!
Subscribe now for a year for just $199
