June 23, 2022 @ 7:58 pm | Breaking News, Jubak Picks Portfolio |
My one-hundred-and-forty-ninth YouTube video “Quick Pick: Cheniere Energy” went up today. My Quick Pick this week is Cheniere Energy (LNG), a liquified natural gas producer that I currently own in my Volatility Portfolio on JubakAM.com and plan to add to...
June 22, 2022 @ 7:57 pm | Breaking News |
Home builder Lennar (LEN) has started trimming prices and offering buyer incentives to bolster sales. The bad news here is that a slowing housing market is an early indicator of rising odds of a recession. The good news is that this is supposed to be what...
June 22, 2022 @ 7:47 pm | Breaking News |
My one-hundred-and-forty-eighth YouTube video “Ouch! The Fed Gets Honest About Inflation” went up today. In front of the Senate Finance Committee today, Fed chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed has all the tools it needs to fight inflation–except,...
June 21, 2022 @ 7:28 pm | Breaking News, Jim's Extras |
U.S. existing home sales tumbled to a two-year low in May as prices jumped to a record high-topping the $400,000 mark for the first time- and mortgage rates increased further, the National Association of Realtors reported today, June 21. It was the fourth straight...
June 21, 2022 @ 7:21 pm | Breaking News |
A deeply troubling look at consumer balances from Statista. Well, deeply troubling if you hope that the United States will avoid a recession. (Frankly, I’m in the “Hope we avoid but I’m afraid we won’t camp.”) In April, Americans saved...
June 20, 2022 @ 10:30 pm | Breaking News, Dividend Income Portfolio, PFXF, VGSH |
I’ve overstayed my welcome in the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) and the VanEck Preferred Securities ex-Financials ETF (PFXF), but with the Federal Reserve accelerating its interest rate increases, I think selling these two members of my Dividend...
June 20, 2022 @ 7:37 pm | BKNG, Breaking News, Jubak Picks Portfolio |
As I noted in my “Bear Growls Louder for Consumer Stocks” post, consumer spending on services is looking weaker by the day and consumers seem to be trimming plans for summer travel. Bookings are slowing at airlines and hotels, for example. And it looks...
June 20, 2022 @ 7:34 pm | Breaking News |
My one-hundred-and-forty-seventh YouTube video “Rip the Band-Aid Off on Interest Rates” went up today. My Trend of the Week video this week looks at hedge fund gurus who have been yelling that the Federal Reserve needs even bigger interest rate increases...
June 19, 2022 @ 10:38 pm | Breaking News |
I’m seeing growing negativity on the U.S. economy and on the timing and depth of a U.S. recession. I think it’s important to note that the stock market and the economy aren’t perfectly correlated. Stocks can go up even as the economy weakens on...
June 19, 2022 @ 2:52 pm | Breaking News |
Friday, June 17, was a modestly up day for most of the indexes. The Standard & Poor’s 500, for example, gained 0.22% and the NASDAQ was up a stronger 1.43%. (The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.13% on the day.) But you’d never know that the...
June 17, 2022 @ 7:32 pm | Breaking News, Jim's Extras, Jubak Picks Portfolio, UNG |
I’m using the continued weakness in natural gas prices and in the U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG) to add the shares to my Jubak Picks Portfolio. The U.S. Natural Gas Fund was down another 5.90% today to close at $23.78. A fire at the Freeport LNG facility, which...
June 16, 2022 @ 4:56 pm | Breaking News, Jubak Picks Portfolio, UNG |
My one-hundred-and-forty-sixth YouTube video “Quick Pick U.S. Natural Gas Fund–update” went up today. The fire at the Freeport Liquified Natural Gas facility has disrupted U.S exports of natural gas. That’s resulted in a short-term glut in U.S....
June 16, 2022 @ 4:32 pm | Breaking News, Jubak Picks Portfolio, UNG, WEAT |
Yesterday, the stock market was up with the Standard & Poor’s 500 gaining 1.46% on the day and the NASDAQ Composite up 2.49%. Listening to the Federal Reserve’s policy statement after the June 15 meeting of its Open Market Committee, Wall Street chose...
June 15, 2022 @ 11:14 pm | Breaking News, You May Have Missed |
The projections released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, June 15–the so-called Dot Plot–show a central bank that sees a tough 2022, especially on interest rates and inflation, but a definite improvement in 2024. This fits with the developing Wall...
June 15, 2022 @ 9:38 pm | Breaking News |
My one-hundred-and-forty-fifth YouTube video “Fed Hikes Make the Market Happy” went up today. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points today–instead of the 50 points so widely expected just weeks ago–and stocks rallied....
June 14, 2022 @ 3:27 pm | Breaking News |
I know this seems bass-ackwards. Stocks have spent two days in a vigorous sell off because of fears of higher interest rates and worries, after Friday’s surprise surge in CPI inflation to an 8.6% annual rate in May, that the Fed might decide to raise interest...
June 13, 2022 @ 8:00 pm | Breaking News, Dividend Income Portfolio, TFC |
On Friday in my Quick Pick video on YouTube (Have you subscribed yet–why not? It’s free and that way you’ll know when a new video goes up) I said I would add Truist Financial (TFC) to my Dividend Portfolio on Monday. And so I will. My rule of thumb...
June 13, 2022 @ 7:53 pm | Breaking News |
My one-hundred-and-forty-fourth YouTube video “China Stocks Soar on End to Tech Crackdown” went up today. In the past few weeks–at least before the inflation/interest rate meltdown in U.S. markets–I’ve seen an uptick in big China stocks...
June 13, 2022 @ 7:44 pm | Breaking News, Jim's Extras |
The latest Consumer Expectations survey (that is for May) from the New York Federal Reserve shows U.S. households’ anticipate inflation will rise at a 6.6% annual rate over the next year. That’s up from April expectations for a 6.3% rate. The May...
June 10, 2022 @ 10:04 pm | Breaking News, Dividend Income Portfolio, TFC |
My one-hundred-and-forty-third YouTube video “Quick Pick Truist Financial” went up today. My Quick Pick this week is Truist Financial Corp (TFC), a “super-regional” bank based in the Southeast. Bank stocks have been down recently on rising...
June 10, 2022 @ 9:57 pm | Breaking News |
Headline Consumer Price Index inflation in May rose to a new annual high rate of 8.6% in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, June 10. Headline prices rose 1% from April. The big drivers were, as expected, food (with prices up at a 10.1% annual rate)...
June 9, 2022 @ 9:53 pm | Breaking News |
My one-hundred-and-forty-second YouTube video “The Treasury Yield Tide Is Rising” went up today. Yields are up for 2-, 5-, and 10-year Treasuries. I’m also seeing higher expectations for more rate increases in the coming Fed meetings with the odds...
June 9, 2022 @ 1:37 pm | Breaking News, Jubak Top 50 Portfolio, TSM |
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), the world’s largest independent chip producer, expects revenue to grow about 30% in 2022. Sales growth this year should accelerate from 2021’s 24.9% (in dollar terms), Chairman Mark Liu said at the company’s annual...
June 9, 2022 @ 1:34 pm | Breaking News |
On Wednesday, June 8, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is fueling rapid inflation and slowing global growth. (The OECD represents 38 countries including most of the world’s advanced economies.) “We are...
June 7, 2022 @ 7:42 pm | Breaking News, COST, Jubak Picks Portfolio, WMT |
Target (TGT) cut its profit outlook for the second time in three weeks. The company will attack oaring inventories in discretionary categories such as home furnishings with price mark downs, cancelling orders from vendors, and “off-loading excess inventory. (To...
June 7, 2022 @ 7:34 pm | Breaking News, Jubak Top 50 Portfolio, NTR |
Logic says that demand for fertilizer should be soaring as North American farmers look to increase production at a time when grain prices are near record highs thanks to the severe reduction in exports from the Ukraine and Russia. Logic, however, looks to be wrong. An...
June 6, 2022 @ 7:49 pm | ALB, Breaking News, Jubak Picks Portfolio, Jubak Top 50 Portfolio |
My one-hundredth-and-forty-first YouTube video “Trend of the Week: Danger of a Lithium Drought” went up today. My Trend of the Week video looks at the effects of Chile’s 15-year drought on global lithium production and prices. In particular, I look...
June 6, 2022 @ 7:40 pm | Breaking News |
As of June 3, FactSet reports, analysts had cut their earnings estimates during the first two months of the quarter for second quarter earnings by companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 by 1.3% to $55.36 from $56.06. How significant is that? And what does...
June 3, 2022 @ 7:56 pm | Breaking News |
My one-hundredth-and-fortieth YouTube video “Quick Pick Wyndham Hotels” went up today. My Quick Pick this week is Wyndham Hotels (WH), which owns a large portion (40%) of the U.S. market in branded economy and midscale hotels. This is gearing up to be a...
June 3, 2022 @ 7:52 pm | Breaking News, Jim's Extras, You May Have Missed |
The U.S. economy added 390,000 jobs in May, the Labor Department reported this morning. Economists had expected the economy to add 318.000 jobs for the month. In April the economy added a revised 436,000 jobs. The unemployment rate stayed steady at 3.6%. Economists...