China bond defaults head for another record year
With 15 defaults in November, total onshore bond defaults have hit $120.4 billion yuan ($17.1 billion)in 2019, according to Bloomberg. That’s close to the 121.9 billion yuan record set in 2018. While the $17.1 billion in onshore defaults seems insignificant...
OPEC does nothing and markets seem to be ok with that
OPEC reached an agreement today to cut an additional 500,000 barrels a day from production. In reality that action is close to “no action” since OPEC has been informally making those supply reductions for most of the year thanks to voluntary cuts by Saudi...
“News” on U.S.-China trade talks takes away, “news” on talks gives back
A day after “news” on the lack of progress of U.S.-China trade talks led to a decline in stocks, “news” of progress in the talks has led to a modest rally. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed up 0.63% today and the Dow Jones Industrial...
Oil climbs ahead of December 5 OPEC meeting
Call it very, very cautious optimism. Maybe. Oil prices climbed ahead of the December 5 meeting of OPEC in Vienna. The oil market got a boost from a report today, December 4, from the U.S. Energy Information Administration that showed U.S. crude inventories fell by...
Earnings retreat for the fourth quarter?
Wall Street analysts always cut their earnings estimates as a quarter progresses. (Which then lets lots of companies beat forecasts when they actually report.) But for the fourth quarter of 2019, the cuts to earnings estimates for the companies in the Standard &...
Trump says, No hurry to strike a trade deal with China in 2020, and markets tumble
“I don’t have a deadline,” Trump told reporters today in London. “I like the idea of waiting until after the election for the China deal. But they want to make a deal now and we’ll see whether not the deal is going to be right.” And with that financial markets that...
Here’s how to think about Danaher’s offer to exchange shares for the Envista spin off
Danaher (DHR) has announced an exchange offer for shares of Envista Holdings (NVST), the dental services and supplies company recent spun off from Danaher. After Envista’s September IPO Danaher still held 80.6% of Envista shares. The exchange offer would allow...
Data clash on U.S. manufacturing–contraction or expansion?
According to the Purchasing Managers Index from the Institute for Supply Management the U.S.manufacturing sector slipped further into contraction in November with the index dropping to 48.1 in November from 48.3 in October. That was a fourth-straight monthly...
Lionsgate UK deal with Amazon raises speculation on a U.S. deal for studio’s content
Amazon (AMZN) and Lionsgate (LGF/A) have struck a deal that will put Lionsgate’s newest releases on Amazon’s streaming platform. The multiyear deal that begins on January 1, 2020, will give Amazon subscribers access to current box-office star Knives Out...
Where’d that come from? Trump reinstates tariffs on Brazilian and Argentine steel and aluminum
President Donald Trump has reinstated tariffs on steel and aluminum exports from Argentina and Brazil, leaving global financial markets wondering what that means. At best, the move is based on mis-understanding by the White House of how exchange rates work. The...
Gobble, gobble, have a great Thanksgiving
Along with the rest of the United States, I’m on the road today headed to grandma’s house over the hills and through the woods for Thanksgiving. Hope you get to be thankful with all those you love. (And travel safely.) I’ll be back posting after the...
The squeeze on the U.S. shale patch just keeps getting worse–selling Cheniere Energy out of my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio
The second quarter of the year is, historically, the weakest quarter for global demand for natural gas. That’s not a good forecast since the global glut of natural gas has already gotten so large that U.S. exporters of liquified natural gas have no place to send...
What about the Hong Kong vote? Market’s focus on just part of China news sends U.S. stocks to all-time highs
Today both the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the NASDAQ Composite Index hit all time highs. As of 3:40 p.m. New York time on Monday, November 25, the S&P 500 was up 0.67% and the NASDAQn Composite had gained 1.26%. There are two main drivers for the market...
Selling Synaptics out of my Jubak Picks portfolio tomorrow
When Synaptics (SYNA) traded at $40 I though the shares were undervalued. At $60 I think they’re close to full value. My target price on the stock is $64 and the shares closed at $58.51 today, up 2.94% on the day. Tomorrow I’m going to take advantage of...
A summary of the changes to my Dividend Portfolio as a result of my Special Report 3 Ways to Higher Income in a Low Yield Desert
Back at the beginning of November I published a Special Report on my subscription JubakAM.com site that revised the Dividend Portfolio I track on all my sites. The changes in the portfolio were an attempt to respond to a changed environment for yield–what I...
China’s Xi Jinping demonstrates why ending the U.S.-China trade war will be so tough
In spite of all the delays and all the contradictory claims I remain convinced that a Part 1 trade agreement between the U.S. and China will get signed. Maybe not in the remainder of 2019 but certainly within the early part of 2020. A wider agreement to settle issues...
Can’t anybody run a streaming service? Netflix joins the Disney glitch parade
Netflix (NFLX) customers couldn’t log in to their accounts for about two hours on Thursday morning. Downdetector.com recorded more than 1,000 companies in the first hour. This follows on a much more serious service disruption suffered during the launch of...
Could collapse of U.S.-China trade talks trigger a second Federal Reserve Put?
You’re aware, I hope, of the idea that there’s an implicit Federal Reserve put that undergirds a stock market trading near record highs. The idea is that Fed chair Jerome Powell, would move to cut interest rates to support stocks if the market looked like...
At least someone wants to buy TD Ameritrade–can we say the same for Citibank?
Interesting column by Matt Levine on Bloomberg Opinion today. In the piece “Schwab Broke Ameritrade to Buy It” he points out that the acquisition bid from Charles Schawb (SCHW) today to buy TD Ameritrade (AMTD) for a reported $26 billion comes after...
Oil rallies on actual inventory numbers after falling yesterday on projections
The Energy Information Administration reported today that U.S. oil inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub fell by 2.3 million barrels. That was the biggest draw down in inventory at Cushing in three months. Supplies at the Cushing Hub reflect production in the U.S....
Senate passes Hong Kong support bill, House to take it up today scrambling China trade talks
As you might imagine, this complicates things. Just as U.S. and Chinese negotiators struggle to put together a Part 1 deal to de-escalate the U.S.-China trade war, the two houses of the U.S. Congress are moving to pass legislation that would support pro-democracy...
iPhone sales up in China continuing Apple revenue momentum
Apple (AAPL) shipped 10 million iPhones in China during September and October, according to Bloomberg. That would be an increase of 6% from the same period in 2019. The projections add to speculation that sales of the iPhone 11 are running ahead of Wall Street...
Oil prices under pressure as OPEC meeting looms
Oil prices are down significantly today, November 19, on speculation that data to be released tomorrow will show a fourth straight weekly increase in U.S. oil inventories and nervousness about a successful conclusion to U.S.-China Part 1 trade talks. As of 1:30 p.m....
Nvidia climbing with chip rally, keeping as Jubak Pick
After the close on November 14 Nvidia (NVDA) announced fiscal third quarter 2020 quarterly earnings of $1.78 a share, 20 cents a share above the Wall Street consensus. Revenue of $3.10 billion was $92.21 million above projections. Chip stocks are currently among the...
Fed report notes that continuing low interest rates could threaten U.S. (and global) financial security.
Well, duh. Yesterday Fed chairman Jerome Powell told the House Budget Committee that”we’re in a world of much lower interest rates.” He seemed to shrug his shoulders at the prospect as if to say, Hey that’s what it is and the Fed doesn’t...
White House again says China deal is near; Wall Street says show us the signatures
The White House rolled out another round of its ongoing soap opera “As the Deal Turns.” starring, this week Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow (again.) The stock market yawned. “If you look at whenever they say...
Does Fed, market complacency make you nervous?
“The U.S. economy is the star economy these days,” Fed chair Jerome Powell told the House Budget Committee today, November 14. “There is no reason to think that I could see that the probability of a recession is at all elevated at this time.” “Our forecast is, and our...
Powell refuses chance to say the Fed is on interest rate hold through 2020
Given a chance to say that the Federal Reserve will keep its interest rate policy on hold through 2020, Fed chair Jerome Powell refused to take the bait at this morning’s testimony in front of the congressional Joint Economic Committee. “We see the current...
Disney hits new record price on launch of streaming service
The bad news is that 10 million customers tried to sign up for Disney+ on Tuesday, intermittently crashing the website for Disney’s (DIS) new streaming service. The good news is that 10 million customers flocked to the newly launched streaming service and by Day...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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