The return on my Jubak Picks Portfolio
from May 1997 through the end of 2019: 584%
Jubak’s Picks
Stocks for a 12-18 Month Horizon
Performance
2019
+10.2%
2018
+10.2%
2017
+13.2%
Since Inception
+584%
Top 50 Stocks
50 Best Stocks in the World
Performance
2019
+21.19%
2018
-8.22%
2017
+28.1%
2016
+21.5%
Dividend Income
Stocks that Pay You
Performance
2021
+18.59%
2020
+15.71%
2019
+4.90%
2018
-15.52%
2017
+6.48%
2016
+26.8%
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Existing home sales hit two-year low in May–as prices see record high and mortgage rates rise
U.S. existing home sales tumbled to a two-year low in May. It was the fourth straight monthly drop in sales.
Walmart beats lowered revenue and earnings forecasts and reaffirms guidance for the second half of 2022
Walmart shares were up 5.11% today, August 16, at the close. I think it’s fair to call that a relief rally as the company beat lowered earnings and sales forecasts for fiscal second-quarter earnings today. And then confirmed its guidance for the second half of 2022. Remember that the company had slashed guidance twice in the last three months on May 17 and then again on July 26.
A strategy for investing during the FOMO rally
If the return of the Bear Market is very likely, WHEN will it return? That’s important because the timing of the return of the Bear determines what strategy we should adopt. If the Bear will go back on the prowl very soon, say somewhere around August 24 (the date of Nvidia’s (NVDA) very important (for the tech sector and more) earnings report) and August 26 through 28, the dates of the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole confab, then you should be battening down the hatches now and selling everything you don’t want to hold through another down leg from the Bear. On the other hand, the return of the Bear could be delayed until early 2023 when it becomes clear to all the interest rate optimists on Wall Street that the Federal Reserve isn’t about to start cutting rates soon. So what do you do?
This Bear Market rally has some legs: Stocks don’t want to fall–even on really bad economic news from China
Overnight China reported really negative growth numbers with industrial production, fixed asset investment, and consumer spending all growing at rates well below projections. Economists on Wall Street (and its equivalent in Tokyo, etc.) issued new forecasts for economic growth in China of 4% or 3.5% or 3%. Far below the 5% unofficial growth target from Beijing. But U.S. stocks initially dipped on the news but by noon the major indexes had moved into the black. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed up 0.33% for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended 0.49% higher. The NASDAQ Co opposite gained 040% and the NASDAQ 100 added 0.75%. Only the Russell 2000 small-cap index ended the day down and that by just 0.12%. Some days, and I think this is one of them, you can tell a lot about market direction by how stocks react to bad news.
China’s economy in worse shape than we thought
China’s factory output and consumer spending both slowed in July, new numbers released today by the National Bureau of Statistics showed. Industrial production rose 3.8% from a year ago. That’s lower than June’s 3.9% year-over-year rate and below economists’ forecast of a 4.3% increase. Retail sales growth slowed to 2.7% in July, lower than economists’ projection of 4.9%.
FOMO looks likely to extend Bear Market rally
Welcome back FOMO. That’s Fear of Missing Out. We’ve seen this one before. With stocks up, and showing signs of moving higher, investors who sought safety on the sidelines find they can’t take the pain anymore of watching other investors and traders make money. With the Standard & Poor’s up nearly 17% from its June low, money is moving back into stocks.
Buy/sell/hold: Tesla’s near-term pivot points
The long-term case for buying Tesla (TSLA) is easy to make (or easy to argue.) The company has created electric vehicle technology that delivers faster speeds, longer range, and greater efficiency than any of its emerging competitors. The company has done a...
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