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Jubak’s Picks Performance 1997-2019
Jubak’s Picks
Buy and hold? Not really.
Short-term trading?
Not by a long shot.
So what is the stock-picking style of The Jubak’s Picks portfolio?
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Click to View the Jubak’s Picks Portfolio
I try to go with the market’s momentum when the trend is strong and the risk isn’t too high, and I go against the herd when the bulls have turned piggy and the bears have lost all perspective. What are the results of this moderately active — the holding period is 12 to 18 months — all-stock portfolio since inception in May 1997? A total return of 584% as of December 31, 2019. That compares to a total return on the S&P 500 stock index of 335% during the same period.
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Top 50 Stocks Performance 2019
Top 50 Stocks
This long-term, buy-and-holdish portfolio was originally based on my 2008 book The Jubak Picks.
Trends that are strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to surpass stock market averages.
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Click to view the Top 50 Stocks Portfolio
In The Jubak’s Picks Portfolio I identified ten trends that were strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to give anyone who invested in them a good chance of beating the stock market averages.
To mark the publication of my new book on volatility, Juggling with Knives, and to bring the existing long-term picks portfolio into line with what I learned in writing that book and my best new ideas on how to invest for the long-term in a period of high volatility, I’m completely overhauling the existing Top 50 Picks portfolio.
You can buy Juggling with Knives at bit.ly/jugglingwithknives
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Dividend Income Performance 2021
Dividend Income
Every income investor needs a healthy dose of dividend stocks.
Why bother?
Why not just concentrate on bonds or CDs?
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Because all the different income-producing assets available to income investors have characteristics that make them suited to one market and not another. You need all of these types of assets if you’re going to generate maximum income with minimum risk as the market twists and turns.
For example: bonds are great when interest rates are falling. Buy early in that kind of market and you can just sit back and collect that initial high yield as well as the capital gains that are generated as the bonds appreciate in price with each drop in interest rates.
CDs, on the other hand, are a great way to lock in a yield with almost absolute safety when you’d like to avoid the risk of having to reinvest in an uncertain market or when interest rates are crashing.
Dividend stocks have one very special characteristic that sets them apart from bonds and CDs: companies raise dividends over time. Some companies raise them significantly from one quarter or year to the next. That makes a dividend-paying stock one of the best sources of income when interest rates start to rise.
Bonds will get killed in that environment because bond prices will fall so that yields on existing bonds keep pace with rising interest rates.
But because interest rates usually go up during periods when the economy is cooking, there’s a very good chance that the company you own will be seeing rising profits. And that it will raise its dividend payout to share some of that with shareholders.
With a dividend stock you’ve got a chance that the yield you’re collecting will keep up with rising market interest rates.
But wouldn’t ya know it?
Just when dividend investing is getting to be more important—becoming in my opinion the key stock market strategy for the current market environment—it’s also getting to be more difficult to execute with shifting tax rates and special dividends distorting the reported yield on many stocks.
I think there’s really only one real choice—investors have to pull up their socks and work even harder at their dividend investing strategy. That’s why I revamped the format of the Dividend Income portfolio that I’ve been running since October 2009. The changes aren’t to the basic strategy. That’s worked well, I think, and I’ll give you some numbers later on so you can judge for yourself. No, the changes are designed to do two things: First, to let you and me track the performance of the portfolio more comprehensively and more easily compare it to the performance turned in by other strategies, and second, to generate a bigger and more frequent roster of dividend picks so that readers, especially readers who suddenly have a need to put more money to work in a dividend strategy, have more dividend choices to work with.
Why is dividend investing so important in this environment? I’ve laid out the reasons elsewhere but let me recapitulate here. Volatility will create repeated opportunities to capture yields of 5%–the “new normal” and “paranormal” target rate of return–or more as stock prices fall in the latest panic. By using that 5% dividend yield as a target for buys (and sells) dividend investors will avoid the worst of buying high (yields won’t justify the buy) and selling low (yields will argue that this is a time to buy.) And unlike bond payouts, which are fixed by coupon, stock dividends can rise with time, giving investors some protection against inflation.
The challenge in dividend investing during this period is using dividend yield as a guide to buying and selling without becoming totally and exclusively focused on yield. What continues to matter most is total return. A 5% yield can get wiped out very easily by a relatively small drop in share price.
Going forward, I will continue to report on the cash thrown off by the portfolio—since I recognize that many investors are looking for ways to increase their current cash incomes. But I’m also going to report the total return on the portfolio—so you can compare this performance to other alternatives—and I’m going to assume that an investor will reinvest the cash from these dividend stocks back into other dividend stocks. That will give the portfolio—and investors who follow it—the advantage of compounding over time, one of the biggest strengths in any dividend income strategy.
What are some of the numbers on this portfolio? $29,477 in dividends received from October 2009 through December 31, 2013. On the original $100,000 investment in October 2009 that comes to a 29.5% payout on that initial investment over a period of 39 months. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 8.27%.
And since we care about total return, how about capital gains or losses from the portfolio? The total equity price value of the portfolio came to $119,958 on December 31, 2012. That’s a gain of $19,958 over 39 months on that initial $100,000 investment or a compound annual growth rate of 5.76%.
The total return on the portfolio for that period comes to $49,435 or a compound annual growth rate of 13.2%.
How does that compare to the total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index for that 39-month period? In that period $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have grown to $141,468 with price appreciation and dividends included.) That’s a total compounded annual rate of return of 11.26%.
That’s an annual 2 percentage point advantage to my Dividend Income portfolio. That’s significant, I’d argue, in the context of a low risk strategy.
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In August China adds the most to gold reserves since 2023
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There is no free lunch, Treasury Secretary Bessent: Bond yields down, dollar down, gold prices up
On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced that it would raise the maximum size of buybacks for longer-dated nominal coupon securities in the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year sectors from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The program takes effect September 9 and lasts through November 4, the remainder of the current refunding quarter. I’ve called this “Spitting in the wind.” We’re talking about buying $4 billion per operation when the national debt is $40 trillion. Reuters reported that the change adds at least $14 billion of buyback capacity during the quarter, lifting maximum overall repurchases to $83 billion. But as a statement of intent the action is important: Treasury is saying that it will act to defend long-dated 30-year Treasury bonds when the yield moves above 5%. Let’s be clear on what this is and isn’t.
Buy Alibaba on its move up to #1 global AI model
Alibaba’s (BABA) open-weight models have accumulated more than 3 billion global downloads in the past six months, eclipsing Meta Platforms Inc., Alphabet Inc. and domestic peers to become the world’s No. 1 artificial-intelligence model. I think that AI is a truly revolutionary technology, but I’ve got string reservations about the high valuations and the potential future profitability of U.S. frontier closed model AI companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic. And I really don’t like the circular, debt-funded financial ecosystem that has turned the U.S. sector into something that looks, on some days, like a Ponzi scheme. I’m buying the U.S. -traded ADRs on Monday, August 17. A buy of Alibaba on my 12-18 month Jubak Picks and my long-term 50 Stocks portfolios is an attempt to invest in this technology while avoiding some of the risks. Morningstar calculates a $241 fair value price for the ADRs, which closed at $123.81 on Friday, August 14.
Now that’s circular: The profit boom at tech companies like Amazon and Alphabet comes from investments in AI companies
Tech giants like Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOG) have powered the stock market to record highs. But in recent months, a big driver of those two companies’ profits came from an unusual source: The increasing value of their investment stakes in artificial intelligence companies, according to a really important piece (in my opinion) by Joe Rennison in the New York Times on August 14. “Over 70% of Alphabet’s net quarterly income came from investments in other companies, and in particular, in Elon Musk’s SpaceX, according to a recent regulatory filing and analysis from Satori Insights, a financial markets research firm. SpaceX went public in June in the biggest initial public offering ever. Investment gains also accounted for roughly 65% of Amazon’s net income, largely stemming from its stake in Anthropic, a leading A.I. start-up that is also planning to go public. Those gains underscore a growing vulnerability in the broader stock market: The companies that keep pushing the market higher are increasingly dependent on each other’s success.” “It’s circular,” Matt King, founder of Satori Insights, told the Times. “What’s funding A.I. is now increasingly more A.I.”
China adds to gold reserves for a 21st consecutive month
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