Jubak Picks Portfolio Performance 1997-2017
Buy and hold? Not really.
Not by a long shot.
So what is the stock-picking style of The Jubak Picks portfolio?
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I try to go with the market’s momentum when the trend is strong and the risk isn’t too high, and I go against the herd when the bulls have turned piggy and the bears have lost all perspective. What are the results of this moderately active — the holding period is 12 to 18 months — all-stock portfolio since inception in May 1997? A total return of 483% as of December 31, 2017. That compares to a total return on the S&P 500 stock index of 125% during the same period.
Jubak Top 50 Portfolio Performance for 2017
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In The Jubak Picks I identified ten trends that were strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to give anyone who invested in them a good chance of beating the stock market averages.
To mark the publication of my new book on volatility, Juggling with Knives, and to bring the existing long-term picks portfolio into line with what I learned in writing that book and my best new ideas on how to invest for the long-term in a period of high volatility, I’m completely overhauling the existing Top 50 Picks portfolio.
You can buy Juggling with Knives at bit.ly/jugglingwithknives
Dividend Income Portfolio Performance for 2017
Every income investor needs a healthy dose of dividend stocks.
Why not just concentrate on bonds or CDs?
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Because all the different income-producing assets available to income investors have characteristics that make them suited to one market and not another. You need all of these types of assets if you’re going to generate maximum income with minimum risk as the market twists and turns.
For example: bonds are great when interest rates are falling. Buy early in that kind of market and you can just sit back and collect that initial high yield as well as the capital gains that are generated as the bonds appreciate in price with each drop in interest rates.
CDs, on the other hand, are a great way to lock in a yield with almost absolute safety when you’d like to avoid the risk of having to reinvest in an uncertain market or when interest rates are crashing.
Dividend stocks have one very special characteristic that sets them apart from bonds and CDs: companies raise dividends over time. Some companies raise them significantly from one quarter or year to the next. That makes a dividend-paying stock one of the best sources of income when interest rates start to rise.
Bonds will get killed in that environment because bond prices will fall so that yields on existing bonds keep pace with rising interest rates.
But because interest rates usually go up during periods when the economy is cooking, there’s a very good chance that the company you own will be seeing rising profits. And that it will raise its dividend payout to share some of that with shareholders.
With a dividend stock you’ve got a chance that the yield you’re collecting will keep up with rising market interest rates.
But wouldn’t ya know it?
Just when dividend investing is getting to be more important—becoming in my opinion the key stock market strategy for the current market environment—it’s also getting to be more difficult to execute with shifting tax rates and special dividends distorting the reported yield on many stocks.
I think there’s really only one real choice—investors have to pull up their socks and work even harder at their dividend investing strategy. That’s why I revamped the format of the Dividend Income portfolio that I’ve been running since October 2009. The changes aren’t to the basic strategy. That’s worked well, I think, and I’ll give you some numbers later on so you can judge for yourself. No, the changes are designed to do two things: First, to let you and me track the performance of the portfolio more comprehensively and more easily compare it to the performance turned in by other strategies, and second, to generate a bigger and more frequent roster of dividend picks so that readers, especially readers who suddenly have a need to put more money to work in a dividend strategy, have more dividend choices to work with.
Why is dividend investing so important in this environment? I’ve laid out the reasons elsewhere but let me recapitulate here. Volatility will create repeated opportunities to capture yields of 5%–the “new normal” and “paranormal” target rate of return–or more as stock prices fall in the latest panic. By using that 5% dividend yield as a target for buys (and sells) dividend investors will avoid the worst of buying high (yields won’t justify the buy) and selling low (yields will argue that this is a time to buy.) And unlike bond payouts, which are fixed by coupon, stock dividends can rise with time, giving investors some protection against inflation.
The challenge in dividend investing during this period is using dividend yield as a guide to buying and selling without becoming totally and exclusively focused on yield. What continues to matter most is total return. A 5% yield can get wiped out very easily by a relatively small drop in share price.
Going forward, I will continue to report on the cash thrown off by the portfolio—since I recognize that many investors are looking for ways to increase their current cash incomes. But I’m also going to report the total return on the portfolio—so you can compare this performance to other alternatives—and I’m going to assume that an investor will reinvest the cash from these dividend stocks back into other dividend stocks. That will give the portfolio—and investors who follow it—the advantage of compounding over time, one of the biggest strengths in any dividend income strategy.
What are some of the numbers on this portfolio? $29,477 in dividends received from October 2009 through December 31, 2013. On the original $100,000 investment in October 2009 that comes to a 29.5% payout on that initial investment over a period of 39 months. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 8.27%.
And since we care about total return, how about capital gains or losses from the portfolio? The total equity price value of the portfolio came to $119,958 on December 31, 2012. That’s a gain of $19,958 over 39 months on that initial $100,000 investment or a compound annual growth rate of 5.76%.
The total return on the portfolio for that period comes to $49,435 or a compound annual growth rate of 13.2%.
How does that compare to the total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index for that 39-month period? In that period $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have grown to $141,468 with price appreciation and dividends included.) That’s a total compounded annual rate of return of 11.26%.
That’s an annual 2 percentage point advantage to my Dividend Income portfolio. That’s significant, I’d argue, in the context of a low risk strategy.
Portfolio Related Posts
The returns for 2018 and 2019 for my Dividend Portfolio show the challenge facing dividend income investors during this period of extremely low interest rates.
In 2018 my Dividend Portfolio showed a yield on 3.60%. That produced $6,483 in dividend income that year. (In this portfolio I put an equal $10,000 into each position and rebalance each year.) The goal of this portfolio is to beat the yield on the 10-year Treasury. On January 1, 2018 the yield on the 10-year Treasury was 2.58%. In 2019 my Dividend Portfolio showed a yield of 4.90%. I held fewer stocks in that portfolio that year but I still managed to produce $6,365 in dividend income that year. On January 1, 2019, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was 2.71%. But as THEY always tell us, there’s no free lunch in the financial markets.
On the night of November 18, I made Duke Energy (DUK) my second pick in my Special Report: “Dividend Stocks that are beating the Risky Rockets” on my JubakAM.com subscription site. On November 19, I’m added these shares to my Dividend Portfolio. Duke Energy embodies many of the trends currently driving utility stocks higher.
On October 27 I made CVS Health (CVS) one of my “10 Stocks for a post coronavirus world” on my JubakAssetManagement.com subscription site and declared that it was the only one of the first group of five stocks that I’d buy now–even though the market looked potentially volatile. I cited the stock’s 3.57% dividend as one very supportive factor. The subsequent few days have lived up to those worries about volatility. The stock opened at $59.12 on October 27 and closed at $58.15 that day. The shares dipped as low as $55.93 at the close on October 29 before beginning a recovery that has taken these back to a close of $59.45 after today’s (November 3) 2.36% gain. In other words the stock is pretty much back where it was on October 27. I’m officially adding it to my Dividend Portfolio today, November 3, at the October 27 price (since that’s when I made the stock a pick.) But all this excitement in the short run isn’t why I think owning these shares is a good idea now.
Can’t say Nidec (NJDCY) isn’t ambitious when it comes to expanding its share of the market for motors for electric vehicles in Europe, which has become along with China one of the world’s top markets for electric vehicles. The Japanese company, based in Kyoto, will build a $1.9 billion plant in Siberia to manufacture motors for electric vehicles for the European market, according to Nikkei Asia. When built, the plant will produce 200,000 to 300,000 motors (by 2023). Nidec also plans to produce motors for electric vehicles for the European market in France and Poland. Sales of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids grew by 62% year over year in 2019 and are set to rise three-fold in 2020 from 2019.
Autoliv beats on prospects for global auto recovery–but I think you’ve got better stocks to play this trend
Autoliv (ALV) reported third quarter earnings per share of either $1.48 (non-GAAP) or $1.12 (GAAP). (GAAP is generally accepted accounting principles.) That consensus was $1.09 a share on Wall Street. Revenue of $2.04 billion was in line with expectations and up 0.5% year over year. For the full 2020 year the company said it expects a 14.5% drop in revenue–versus Wall Street projections for a 15.05% decline. While those results may seem lackluster, they represent a huge improvement for the maker of auto safety systems.
Shares of Danaher (DHR) were up just 3.28% today. I say “just” because the company delivered a blow out earnings report today.
On October 15 I noted that the hike in revenue guidance from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) on huge demand for its chips in AI and gaming (among other sectors) was good news for gaming, AI, and data center leader Nvidia (NVDA.) And I hinted at buying shares in Nvidia before that company reports earnings for its fiscal fourth quarter on November 12. (That’s NASDAQ’s current forecast for when Nvidia will report earnings. Other sources say November 18.) Well, today I’m taking that from “hint” to “buy.
A day after ConocoPhilips (COP) announced it would buy big Permian Basin oil shale play Concho Resources (CXO) for $9.7 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported that Pioneer Natural Resources, by some measures the biggest oil shale operator in the Permian Basin, is in talks to acquire Parsley Energy (PE), another Permian Basin producer. (After the close today, we got confirmation of the deal with a price of $7.9 billion.)