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The return on my Jubak Picks Portfolio
from May 1997 through the end of 2019: 584%

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Jubak’s Picks Performance 1997-2019

Jubak’s Picks

Buy and hold? Not really.

Short-term trading?
Not by a long shot.

So what is the stock-picking style of The Jubak’s Picks portfolio?

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Click to View the Jubak’s Picks Portfolio

I try to go with the market’s momentum when the trend is strong and the risk isn’t too high, and I go against the herd when the bulls have turned piggy and the bears have lost all perspective. What are the results of this moderately active — the holding period is 12 to 18 months — all-stock portfolio since inception in May 1997? A total return of 584% as of December 31, 2019. That compares to a total return on the S&P 500 stock index of 335% during the same period.


Top 50 Stocks Performance 2019

Top 50 Stocks

This long-term, buy-and-holdish portfolio was originally  based on my 2008 book The Jubak Picks.

Trends that are strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to surpass stock market averages.

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Click to view the Top 50 Stocks Portfolio

In The Jubak’s Picks Portfolio I identified ten trends that were strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to give anyone who invested in them a good chance of beating the stock market averages.

To mark the publication of my new book on volatility, Juggling with Knives, and to bring the existing long-term picks portfolio into line with what I learned in writing that book and my best new ideas on how to invest for the long-term in a period of high volatility, I’m completely overhauling the existing Top 50 Picks portfolio.

You can buy Juggling with Knives at


Dividend Income Performance 2021

Dividend Income

Every income investor needs a healthy dose of dividend stocks.

Why bother?

Why not just concentrate on bonds or CDs?

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Click to view the Dividend Income Portfolio

Because all the different income-producing assets available to income investors have characteristics that make them suited to one market and not another. You need all of these types of assets if you’re going to generate maximum income with minimum risk as the market twists and turns.

For example: bonds are great when interest rates are falling. Buy early in that kind of market and you can just sit back and collect that initial high yield as well as the capital gains that are generated as the bonds appreciate in price with each drop in interest rates.

CDs, on the other hand, are a great way to lock in a yield with almost absolute safety when you’d like to avoid the risk of having to reinvest in an uncertain market or when interest rates are crashing.

Dividend stocks have one very special characteristic that sets them apart from bonds and CDs: companies raise dividends over time. Some companies raise them significantly from one quarter or year to the next. That makes a dividend-paying stock one of the best sources of income when interest rates start to rise.

Bonds will get killed in that environment because bond prices will fall so that yields on existing bonds keep pace with rising interest rates.

But because interest rates usually go up during periods when the economy is cooking, there’s a very good chance that the company you own will be seeing rising profits. And that it will raise its dividend payout to share some of that with shareholders.

With a dividend stock you’ve got a chance that the yield you’re collecting will keep up with rising market interest rates.

But wouldn’t ya know it?

Just when dividend investing is getting to be more important—becoming in my opinion the key stock market strategy for the current market environment—it’s also getting to be more difficult to execute  with shifting tax rates and special dividends distorting the reported yield on many stocks.

I think there’s really only one real choice—investors have to pull up their socks and work even harder at their dividend investing strategy. That’s why I revamped the format of the Dividend Income portfolio that I’ve been running since October 2009. The changes aren’t to the basic strategy. That’s worked well, I think, and I’ll give you some numbers later on so you can judge for yourself. No, the changes are designed to do two things: First, to let you and me track the performance of the portfolio more comprehensively and more easily compare it to the performance turned in by other strategies, and second, to generate a bigger and more frequent roster of dividend picks so that readers, especially readers who suddenly have a need to put more money to work in a dividend strategy, have more dividend choices to work with.

Why is dividend investing so important in this environment? I’ve laid out the reasons elsewhere but let me recapitulate here. Volatility will create repeated opportunities to capture yields of 5%–the “new normal” and “paranormal” target rate of return–or more as stock prices fall in the latest panic. By using that 5% dividend yield as a target for buys (and sells) dividend investors will avoid the worst of buying high (yields won’t justify the buy) and selling low (yields will argue that this is a time to buy.) And unlike bond payouts, which are fixed by coupon, stock dividends can rise with time, giving investors some protection against inflation.

The challenge in dividend investing during this period is using dividend yield as a guide to buying and selling without becoming totally and exclusively focused on yield. What continues to matter most is total return. A 5% yield can get wiped out very easily by a relatively small drop in share price.

Going forward, I will continue to report on the cash thrown off by the portfolio—since I recognize that many investors are looking for ways to increase their current cash incomes. But I’m also going to report the total return on the portfolio—so you can compare this performance to other alternatives—and I’m going to assume that an investor will reinvest the cash from these dividend stocks back into other dividend stocks. That will give the portfolio—and investors who follow it—the advantage of compounding over time, one of the biggest strengths in any dividend income strategy.

What are some of the numbers on this portfolio? $29,477 in dividends received from October 2009 through December 31, 2013. On the original $100,000 investment in October 2009 that comes to a 29.5% payout on that initial investment over a period of 39 months. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 8.27%.

And since we care about total return, how about capital gains or losses from the portfolio? The total equity price value of the portfolio came to $119,958 on December 31, 2012. That’s a gain of $19,958 over 39 months on that initial $100,000 investment or a compound annual growth rate of 5.76%.

The total return on the portfolio for that period comes to $49,435 or a compound annual growth rate of 13.2%.

How does that compare to the total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index for that 39-month period? In that period $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have grown to $141,468 with price appreciation and dividends included.) That’s a total compounded annual rate of return of 11.26%.

That’s an annual 2 percentage point advantage to my Dividend Income portfolio. That’s significant, I’d argue, in the context of a low risk strategy.

Portfolio Related Posts

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week U.S . Oil Production not Rising as Expected

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week U.S . Oil Production not Rising as Expected

Today I posted my two-hundred-and-fifth YouTube video. This week’s Trend of the Week: U.S. Oil Production is Not Rising as Expected. Oil prices have averaged $100 per barrel over 2022–a figure that would normally lead oil companies to expand production and capital spending, but it hasn’t this time. According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. oil production is only up about 3% from December 2021. Projections had the U.S. at 12 million barrels a day by the end of this year, but we’re currently only at 9.77 million barrels a day. Why is the production not going up? Oil shale fields deplete faster than traditional fields and we may have reached peak production in some of these oil shale basins. The best properties may have been exhausted and we’re now seeing companies move to their more inferior properties. The drilling and fracking may be happening at a steady pace, but we’re not getting as much out of the wells and properties currently being drilled. Companies that had a stock of drilled, but uncompleted have now worked through those “spare” wells and don’t have the motivation to drill new ones as Wall Street and investors would prefer high dividends instead of capital spent on a commodity that has an unclear future. The two oil companies I would look at are Pioneer Natural Resources Company (NYSE: PXD) and ConocoPhillips (COP) because of their mix of resources.

Microsoft beats but tumbles on showdown in cloud revenue

Microsoft beats but tumbles on showdown in cloud revenue

Microsoft (MSFT) managed to beat Wall Street earnings estimates for its fiscal first quarter, reporting earnings of $2.35 a share versus the $2.29 expected by analysts after the market close on October 25. But the stock is down strongly today, October 26, on the company’s forecast of slowing growth for the next quarter and a decline in growth from its Intelligent Cloud business unit.

Google kicks off Big Tech earnings with a stinker

Google kicks off Big Tech earnings with a stinker

Alphabet (GOOG) reported a drop of 24% in third-quarter earnings after the market closed on Tuesday, October 25. Gross revenue rose just 6% to $69.09 billion. In the third quarter of 2021, revenue grew by just 6% to $69.09 billion from the third quarter of 2021. In that 2021 quarter revenue had grown by 41%. Analysts had expected earnings of $1.25 a share–instead of the reported $1.06 a share.

Buying Lynas Rare Earths in my Jubak Picks Portfolio

Buying Lynas Rare Earths in my Jubak Picks Portfolio

On Monday on my subscription site, I made Lynas Rare Earths (LYSDY) the eighth pick in my Special Report: 9 Picks to Make Money in This Bear Market and said that I would add it to the Jubak Picks Portfolio today. This is what I wrote in my Special Report: “This isn’t a Fed pick, an economic growth pick, or a Bear Market bottom pick. It’s a straightforward U.S.-China trade war pick

Selling Truist Financial out of my Dividend Portfolio today, Friday, October 14

Selling Truist Financial out of my Dividend Portfolio today, Friday, October 14

I don’t like the economic and financial environment looming ahead for banks. I see bad loans rising with a need to reserve more against bad loans. Slowing economies aren’t good for loan demand or credit card delinquencies either. So I’m taking advantage of this moment to sell Truist Financial out of this portfolio in spite of the stock’s hefty dividend. I’ve got a loss on this position of 4.07% since I added it to this portfolio on June 13, 2022. The stock is down 22.19% for 2022 to date as of the close on October 12.

It’s a new trade war with China and this one is really, really serious

It’s a new trade war with China and this one is really, really serious

If you liked the Trump administration’s trade war with China, you’ll love the Biden administration’s new, more dangerous, escalated version. Rather than slapping tariffs on Chinese goods, and inviting retaliatory tariffs by China on American products, the Biden administration war limits the same of advanced semiconductors and chip-making equipment to Chines companies. The action is aimed straight at the heart of China’s efforts to build its own chip industry. And it plays right into a belief, stoked by China’s President Xi Jinping, that China is the victim of a Western plot to prevent the country’s rise to its rightful place in the global order. And the opening blows in this trade war come just as President Xi aims to be installed as China’s newest preeminent leader with a status near that of Mao. I don’t know what the retaliation from China will be, but it is unlikely to stop with a few restrictions on how U.S. companies, such as Tesla (TSLA) and Apple (AAPL) operate in China. The situation is so dangerous because it is so uncertain and so open-ended.

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