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The return on my Jubak Picks Portfolio
from May 1997 through the end of 2019: 584%
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Jubak’s Picks Performance 1997-2019

Jubak’s Picks

Buy and hold? Not really.

Short-term trading?
Not by a long shot.

So what is the stock-picking style of The Jubak’s Picks portfolio?

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I try to go with the market’s momentum when the trend is strong and the risk isn’t too high, and I go against the herd when the bulls have turned piggy and the bears have lost all perspective. What are the results of this moderately active — the holding period is 12 to 18 months — all-stock portfolio since inception in May 1997? A total return of 584% as of December 31, 2019. That compares to a total return on the S&P 500 stock index of 335% during the same period.

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Top 50 Stocks Performance 2019

Top 50 Stocks

This long-term, buy-and-holdish portfolio was originally  based on my 2008 book The Jubak Picks.

Trends that are strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to surpass stock market averages.

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In The Jubak’s Picks Portfolio I identified ten trends that were strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to give anyone who invested in them a good chance of beating the stock market averages.

To mark the publication of my new book on volatility, Juggling with Knives, and to bring the existing long-term picks portfolio into line with what I learned in writing that book and my best new ideas on how to invest for the long-term in a period of high volatility, I’m completely overhauling the existing Top 50 Picks portfolio.

You can buy Juggling with Knives at bit.ly/jugglingwithknives

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Dividend Income Performance 2021

Dividend Income

Every income investor needs a healthy dose of dividend stocks.

Why bother?

Why not just concentrate on bonds or CDs?

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Because all the different income-producing assets available to income investors have characteristics that make them suited to one market and not another. You need all of these types of assets if you’re going to generate maximum income with minimum risk as the market twists and turns.

For example: bonds are great when interest rates are falling. Buy early in that kind of market and you can just sit back and collect that initial high yield as well as the capital gains that are generated as the bonds appreciate in price with each drop in interest rates.

CDs, on the other hand, are a great way to lock in a yield with almost absolute safety when you’d like to avoid the risk of having to reinvest in an uncertain market or when interest rates are crashing.

Dividend stocks have one very special characteristic that sets them apart from bonds and CDs: companies raise dividends over time. Some companies raise them significantly from one quarter or year to the next. That makes a dividend-paying stock one of the best sources of income when interest rates start to rise.

Bonds will get killed in that environment because bond prices will fall so that yields on existing bonds keep pace with rising interest rates.

But because interest rates usually go up during periods when the economy is cooking, there’s a very good chance that the company you own will be seeing rising profits. And that it will raise its dividend payout to share some of that with shareholders.

With a dividend stock you’ve got a chance that the yield you’re collecting will keep up with rising market interest rates.

But wouldn’t ya know it?

Just when dividend investing is getting to be more important—becoming in my opinion the key stock market strategy for the current market environment—it’s also getting to be more difficult to execute  with shifting tax rates and special dividends distorting the reported yield on many stocks.

I think there’s really only one real choice—investors have to pull up their socks and work even harder at their dividend investing strategy. That’s why I revamped the format of the Dividend Income portfolio that I’ve been running since October 2009. The changes aren’t to the basic strategy. That’s worked well, I think, and I’ll give you some numbers later on so you can judge for yourself. No, the changes are designed to do two things: First, to let you and me track the performance of the portfolio more comprehensively and more easily compare it to the performance turned in by other strategies, and second, to generate a bigger and more frequent roster of dividend picks so that readers, especially readers who suddenly have a need to put more money to work in a dividend strategy, have more dividend choices to work with.

Why is dividend investing so important in this environment? I’ve laid out the reasons elsewhere but let me recapitulate here. Volatility will create repeated opportunities to capture yields of 5%–the “new normal” and “paranormal” target rate of return–or more as stock prices fall in the latest panic. By using that 5% dividend yield as a target for buys (and sells) dividend investors will avoid the worst of buying high (yields won’t justify the buy) and selling low (yields will argue that this is a time to buy.) And unlike bond payouts, which are fixed by coupon, stock dividends can rise with time, giving investors some protection against inflation.

The challenge in dividend investing during this period is using dividend yield as a guide to buying and selling without becoming totally and exclusively focused on yield. What continues to matter most is total return. A 5% yield can get wiped out very easily by a relatively small drop in share price.

Going forward, I will continue to report on the cash thrown off by the portfolio—since I recognize that many investors are looking for ways to increase their current cash incomes. But I’m also going to report the total return on the portfolio—so you can compare this performance to other alternatives—and I’m going to assume that an investor will reinvest the cash from these dividend stocks back into other dividend stocks. That will give the portfolio—and investors who follow it—the advantage of compounding over time, one of the biggest strengths in any dividend income strategy.

What are some of the numbers on this portfolio? $29,477 in dividends received from October 2009 through December 31, 2013. On the original $100,000 investment in October 2009 that comes to a 29.5% payout on that initial investment over a period of 39 months. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 8.27%.

And since we care about total return, how about capital gains or losses from the portfolio? The total equity price value of the portfolio came to $119,958 on December 31, 2012. That’s a gain of $19,958 over 39 months on that initial $100,000 investment or a compound annual growth rate of 5.76%.

The total return on the portfolio for that period comes to $49,435 or a compound annual growth rate of 13.2%.

How does that compare to the total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index for that 39-month period? In that period $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have grown to $141,468 with price appreciation and dividends included.) That’s a total compounded annual rate of return of 11.26%.

That’s an annual 2 percentage point advantage to my Dividend Income portfolio. That’s significant, I’d argue, in the context of a low risk strategy.

Portfolio Related Posts

Would you buy a 100-year AI bond even from Google?

Would you buy a 100-year AI bond even from Google?

Alphabet/Google (G00G) borrowed another $20 billion in its biggest ever U.S. dollar bond sale on Monday. And that’s just the beginning. The company is also planning debut deals in Switzerland and the UK. Including the sale of 100-year bonds. Drum role, please: That would be the the first time a tech company has tried a 100-year offering since the Dotcom boom of the late 1990s. (Remember how that ended?) The big borrowing spree comes just days after tech companies from Meta Platforms (META) to Amazon.com (AMZN) said they were ramping up capital spending to build out infrastructure for AI. Those capital spending plans sent AI sector stocks into a steep decline on fears that AI companies would not be able to generate the cash flow needed to fund these capital spending plans. But that was sooo last week.

A new quarter but the same old Intel problems

A new quarter but the same old Intel problems

On Friday, January 23, shares of Intel (INTC) fell by more that 17%. And they dropped another 5.7% today, January 26. Which was quite a turnaround from the stock’s recent performance. From 1 October 1, 2025 to January 21, 2026, Intel’s stock rose from about $35.76 to $54.25, a gain of 52%. Forward price-to-earnings ration based on projected earnings in 12 months had reached 80 to 90, far above the semiconductor sector average in the 20s–30s. Both the speculative rally and the post-earnings collapse are perfectly understandable.

Nvidia speeds things up in AI

Nvidia speeds things up in AI

I’d argue that the big news out of the 2026 Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas wasn’t about new chips, or flashy hardware across TVs, PCs, phones, and robots. It’s all about speed: Nvidia (NVDA) pushed up the launch schedule for its new Vera Rubin AI computing platform by several months from late 2026 to the middle of 2026. Vera Rubin promises about 10x higher throughput and 10x lower token cost than the prior Grace Blackwell platform. The chip now looks be available to customers in the second half of 2026. Cloud partners like AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft, and CoreWeave planning Rubin-based instances starting in that second half 2026 window.

The road to rare earth independence runs through Lynas and MP Materials

The road to rare earth independence runs through Lynas and MP Materials

If the United States (and other technology economies such as Japan and Europe) are serious about reducing China’s dominance in the crucial minerals called rare earths (and I believe they are), then you need to realize as an investor that in the next five years all roads to that goal lead through Lynas Rare Earths (LYSDY) and MP Materials (MP). Both stocks are up hugely in 2025, but I think you need to own them. Buy half a position now and add on any dip, or dollar cost average over the next 12 months (with a bigger monthly buy on any dip) but own them. I have owned Lynas in my Jubak Picks Portfolio since October 18, 2022. The position is up 88% in that period as of the close on December 8. The ADR is up 78% in 2025 to date. On a dip I will add it to the long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio. MP Materials is up 298% in 2025 through December 8. Tomorrow, December 9, I will add MP Materials to my Volatility Portfolio. On a dip I will add it to the Jubak Picks Portfolio.

Next week is Nvidia’s week

Next week is Nvidia’s week

Nvidia (NVDA) will report earnings Wednesday November 19, for the quarter that ended on October 25. According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 13 analysts’ forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $1.17. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $0.78. Visible Alpha reports slightly different estimates. Nvidia is expected to report adjusted earnings per share of $1.26 on revenue of $55.28 billion, each up more than 55% from the same time a year ago. Data center revenue, the chips Nvidia sells that other companies buy to train and run a variety of AI models, is expected to grow 61% and make up $49.53 billion of Nvidia’s revenue. I expect the earnings report to move the market. How could it not? It’s almost as if the financial market’s stage director had cleared the boards for Nvidia’s report.

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