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The return on my Jubak Picks Portfolio
from May 1997 through the end of 2019: 584%
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Jubak’s Picks Performance 1997-2019

Jubak’s Picks

Buy and hold? Not really.

Short-term trading?
Not by a long shot.

So what is the stock-picking style of The Jubak’s Picks portfolio?

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I try to go with the market’s momentum when the trend is strong and the risk isn’t too high, and I go against the herd when the bulls have turned piggy and the bears have lost all perspective. What are the results of this moderately active — the holding period is 12 to 18 months — all-stock portfolio since inception in May 1997? A total return of 584% as of December 31, 2019. That compares to a total return on the S&P 500 stock index of 335% during the same period.

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Top 50 Stocks Performance 2019

Top 50 Stocks

This long-term, buy-and-holdish portfolio was originally  based on my 2008 book The Jubak Picks.

Trends that are strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to surpass stock market averages.

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In The Jubak’s Picks Portfolio I identified ten trends that were strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to give anyone who invested in them a good chance of beating the stock market averages.

To mark the publication of my new book on volatility, Juggling with Knives, and to bring the existing long-term picks portfolio into line with what I learned in writing that book and my best new ideas on how to invest for the long-term in a period of high volatility, I’m completely overhauling the existing Top 50 Picks portfolio.

You can buy Juggling with Knives at bit.ly/jugglingwithknives

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Dividend Income Performance 2021

Dividend Income

Every income investor needs a healthy dose of dividend stocks.

Why bother?

Why not just concentrate on bonds or CDs?

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Because all the different income-producing assets available to income investors have characteristics that make them suited to one market and not another. You need all of these types of assets if you’re going to generate maximum income with minimum risk as the market twists and turns.

For example: bonds are great when interest rates are falling. Buy early in that kind of market and you can just sit back and collect that initial high yield as well as the capital gains that are generated as the bonds appreciate in price with each drop in interest rates.

CDs, on the other hand, are a great way to lock in a yield with almost absolute safety when you’d like to avoid the risk of having to reinvest in an uncertain market or when interest rates are crashing.

Dividend stocks have one very special characteristic that sets them apart from bonds and CDs: companies raise dividends over time. Some companies raise them significantly from one quarter or year to the next. That makes a dividend-paying stock one of the best sources of income when interest rates start to rise.

Bonds will get killed in that environment because bond prices will fall so that yields on existing bonds keep pace with rising interest rates.

But because interest rates usually go up during periods when the economy is cooking, there’s a very good chance that the company you own will be seeing rising profits. And that it will raise its dividend payout to share some of that with shareholders.

With a dividend stock you’ve got a chance that the yield you’re collecting will keep up with rising market interest rates.

But wouldn’t ya know it?

Just when dividend investing is getting to be more important—becoming in my opinion the key stock market strategy for the current market environment—it’s also getting to be more difficult to execute  with shifting tax rates and special dividends distorting the reported yield on many stocks.

I think there’s really only one real choice—investors have to pull up their socks and work even harder at their dividend investing strategy. That’s why I revamped the format of the Dividend Income portfolio that I’ve been running since October 2009. The changes aren’t to the basic strategy. That’s worked well, I think, and I’ll give you some numbers later on so you can judge for yourself. No, the changes are designed to do two things: First, to let you and me track the performance of the portfolio more comprehensively and more easily compare it to the performance turned in by other strategies, and second, to generate a bigger and more frequent roster of dividend picks so that readers, especially readers who suddenly have a need to put more money to work in a dividend strategy, have more dividend choices to work with.

Why is dividend investing so important in this environment? I’ve laid out the reasons elsewhere but let me recapitulate here. Volatility will create repeated opportunities to capture yields of 5%–the “new normal” and “paranormal” target rate of return–or more as stock prices fall in the latest panic. By using that 5% dividend yield as a target for buys (and sells) dividend investors will avoid the worst of buying high (yields won’t justify the buy) and selling low (yields will argue that this is a time to buy.) And unlike bond payouts, which are fixed by coupon, stock dividends can rise with time, giving investors some protection against inflation.

The challenge in dividend investing during this period is using dividend yield as a guide to buying and selling without becoming totally and exclusively focused on yield. What continues to matter most is total return. A 5% yield can get wiped out very easily by a relatively small drop in share price.

Going forward, I will continue to report on the cash thrown off by the portfolio—since I recognize that many investors are looking for ways to increase their current cash incomes. But I’m also going to report the total return on the portfolio—so you can compare this performance to other alternatives—and I’m going to assume that an investor will reinvest the cash from these dividend stocks back into other dividend stocks. That will give the portfolio—and investors who follow it—the advantage of compounding over time, one of the biggest strengths in any dividend income strategy.

What are some of the numbers on this portfolio? $29,477 in dividends received from October 2009 through December 31, 2013. On the original $100,000 investment in October 2009 that comes to a 29.5% payout on that initial investment over a period of 39 months. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 8.27%.

And since we care about total return, how about capital gains or losses from the portfolio? The total equity price value of the portfolio came to $119,958 on December 31, 2012. That’s a gain of $19,958 over 39 months on that initial $100,000 investment or a compound annual growth rate of 5.76%.

The total return on the portfolio for that period comes to $49,435 or a compound annual growth rate of 13.2%.

How does that compare to the total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index for that 39-month period? In that period $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have grown to $141,468 with price appreciation and dividends included.) That’s a total compounded annual rate of return of 11.26%.

That’s an annual 2 percentage point advantage to my Dividend Income portfolio. That’s significant, I’d argue, in the context of a low risk strategy.

Portfolio Related Posts

The bond market says interest rates are going up

The bond market says interest rates are going up

I think higher interest rates are more if a When? than an If? My advice is to cut the bond exposure in your portfolio–especially at the long end. Money market funds that emphasize very short-term Treasury paper are a good alternative–they are essentially cash substitutes. And I wouldn’t limit my selling to just U.S. issues. Tomorrow I’m selling my position in the iSHARES International Treasury Bond ETF (IGOV) out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio. The position is up 1.75%–plus interest payments–since I added it to the portfolio on May 12, 2025. The ETF is down 1.39% for 2026 to date as of June 8.

Selling by India adds to the weakness in gold

Selling by India adds to the weakness in gold

India’s central bank looks to be selling a portion of its gold holdings protect the rupee, according to an analysis by Bloomberg. The Reserve Bank of India likely sold gold reserves worth roughly $12 billion in the two weeks through May 22, while buying $7.5 billion of foreign-currency assets, Abhishek Gupta, Bloomberg’s senior India economist, wrote in a report. Gold for August delivery was down another 1.14% today, June 3. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is down 15.93% for the last three months as of the close on June 2.

So exactly how bad are things down on the farm?

So exactly how bad are things down on the farm?

Last year, America’s crop farmers lost $34.6 billion, and farm bankruptcies surged to numbers not seen since 2020, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. This year, 70% of farmers surveyed claim they cannot afford all the fertilizers they need. Fuel costs continue to rise as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Prices for some fertilizers are up 47% year over year. Meanwhile, farm exports to China, Canada, and other countries have taken a huge hit from U.S. tariff policy. Ninety-four percent of farmers reported that their financial situation has “worsened or remained the same” since last year. Fifteen thousand farms closed in 2025.
Bankruptcies were up 55% in 2024, 46% in 2025 and 70% for 2026 by May.

Now that’s a narrow market!

Now that’s a narrow market!

Artificial intelligence infrastructure spending is poised to become the dominant force behind S&P 500 earnings growth over the next two years, according to new analysis from Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs projects that beneficiaries of AI infrastructure investment will account for roughly half of S&P 500 earnings per share growth in both 2026 and 2027. That’s two years–for the math challenged.

Lilly adds new obesity drug-and revenue growth tops expectations

Lilly adds new obesity drug-and revenue growth tops expectations

What do the stocks of AI chip maker Nvidia (NVDA) and weight-loss drug leader Eli Lilly (LLY) have in common? Their lofty valuations depend on years and years of fast growth.
At a trailing 12-month price to earnings ratio, Nvidia isn’t especially expensive–as ling as it can grow revenue at the 81% rate projected for 2027 or even the 39% projected for 2028. The worry–what makes investors nervous about Nvidia is evidence of increasing competition in the are for AI chips. At some point, the worries go, chips from Amazon, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Chinese competitors have to start taking market share. How much and when? boom the important issues.
Same with shares of Eli Lily. At a trailing 12-month price to earning ratio of 37 an a forward PE of 28 on the next 12-month’s earnings per share, Eli Lilly isn’t expense as ling as it can keep growing revenue at the 31% projected for 2026. But revenue growth is projected at just 15% for 2027 on analysts belief that patent expirations and competition in the market for GLP-1 weight loss drugs will slow growth.
It’s important for investors in Eli Lilly that growth for 2027 and beyond comes in higher than that.
And the company’s recent earning report band its announcement of the preliminary trial results for a new weight loss drug offer reason for optimism.

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