Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Federal Reserve, Mind the Gap!
Today I posted my two-hundredth YouTube video: Federal Reserve: Mind the Gap! Today is Ground Hog Day for the Federal Reserve. The U.S. central bank will announce whether or not it sees its shadow. It’s predicted to announce a 75 basis point increase in interest...
Not what the market wanted to hear from the Fed today
At first investors and traders thought they heard the Federal Reserve signal that the central bank was thinking about a pivot to a policy of cutting interest rates. And stocks rallied. But then Fed chair Jerome Powell “clarified” the Fed’s thinking...
Rising bond yields and higher odds of bigger hikes from the Fed at December meeting cap stocks
The two-day bounce in U.S. stocks stalled today. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed down 0.67% and the NASDAQ Composite was down 0.40%. Why? Increased sentiment that the Federal Reserve will raise its target short-term interest rate by a hefty 75 basis points...
Oh, No! economists say ahead of tomorrow’s CPI inflation number
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are looking for core inflation, that is inflation without volatile food and energy prices, to return to a four-decade high in tomorrow’s report of CPI inflation in September. Projections are looking for a 0.4%increase n core...
Wholesale prices rise more than expected in September
Somehow stocks seem to be turning this into good inflation news this morning ahead of tomorrow’s big CPI inflation report–The Standard & Poor’s 500 is up 0.19% as of 12:30 p.m. New York time and even the NASDAQ Composite is slightly ahead with a...
Dollar is back on the march; Treasuries slide again
The U.S. dollar was up hard today, October 6. The Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund ETF (UUP) rose 1.00%. The Dollar Spot Index (DXY) gained 0.90% And Treasury yields resumed the upward move that has erased much of the gain in bond prices of the last week. The yield...
Sticky inflation in today’s PCE report rests short-term market trend on October 13 CPI inflation numbers
The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose in August. The index climbed 0.3% from July. Year over year the PCE is up 6.2%. Excluding food and energy, the core PC index rose 0.6% in August from July and at...
Signs of the Next Bear Market Rally Story Yesterday–Will It Take Root?
One of the oddest things about yesterday’s reaction to news from the Federal Reserve of a 75 basis point increase in interest rates was that the market initially rallied. Yesterday, September 21, from 3801 at 10:25 a.m.New York time, the Standard &...
Fed raises interest rates by another 75 basis points as expected; Dot Plot signals rate increases for well into 2023
At today’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the U.S. central bank raised interest rates by 75 basis points for a third straight meeting. That took the Fed’s short-term benchmark rate to a range of 3% to 3.25%. This move was widely expected...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: The Fed’s Real Inflation Problem
My one-hundred-and-seventy-fifth YouTube video: “The Fed’s Real Inflation Problem” went up today. The CPI numbers came out and they were disappointing with inflation running at an 8.3% annual rate in August. But the inflation problem is worst than...
CPI headline inflation likely to dip in Tuesday report–market will cheer; Fed will shrug
All attention on Tuesday morning’s report of Consumer Price Index inflation for August. It is likely to drive stocks higher in a continuation of Friday’s advance. But the report will not change the Federal Reserve’s mind about increasing interest...
CME FedWatch odds of 75 basis points at September 21 meeting rise to 90%–after that the picture gets murky.
According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, which calculates the odds of a Fed move in interest rates by looking at prices in the Fed Funds Futures market, the odds of a 75 basis point interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve at its September 21 meeting have climbed to...
Why I’m looking for another Bear market rally to begin in the next few weeks
The swings today, September 8, are a good reminder of how volatile this market is. The Standard & Poor’s 500 broke to the upside with a gain of 0.80% as of 11:20 New York time. Then, with Fed chair Jerome Powell emphasizing the central bank’s...
The Fed keeps pointing at 4% interest rates–or higher
Yesterday Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin told The Financial Times that interest rates must stay high until inflation improves. 4% interest rates wouldn’t surprise him, he said. And today Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard said at the...
The Wall Street consensus is slowly shifting
The stock market still hasn’t completely accepted the likelihood of a recession forced by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases. And there’s still optimism about interest rate cuts in the second half of 2023. But I sense that the market...
Powell says Fed committed to raising interest rates, and keeping them high, until inflation is under control
Well, that was short and direct. Especially for the Federal Reserve. In a speech of less than 10 minutes Fed chair Jerome Powell warned financial markets to expect that the central bank will keep raising interest rates and will then leave them at higher levels for...
I think there’s a longer term trend (more than a day and maybe even beyond next week) in today’s big selling
The Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 1.29% at the close today, August 19. The NASDAQ Composite dropped 2.01%. The small-cap Russell 2000 lost 2.17%. The drop in the S&P was the biggest daily decline since June and it took that index to its first weekly loss...
Fed members push back on market’s inflation has peaked rally
It didn’t take long. The pixels were barely dry on yesterday’s CPI inflation report–headline inflation fell to a year-over-year rate of 8.5% in July from 9.1% in June–before members of the Federal Reserve warned that the stock market rally on...
Watch my new YouTube video: The Fed Talks but the Market’s Not Listening
My one-hundred-and-sixty-fifth YouTube video “Trend of the Week The Fed Talks but the Market’s Not Listening” went up today. The market has strongly rallied in the last month, in good part on the optimistic belief in a “soft landing” from...
Surprise! Economy added 528,000 jobs in July–what’s it all mean (especially for the Fed)?
The U.S. economy added 528,000 jobs in July. The increase crushed all estimates. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for about half that gain. The Labor Department also revised June job gains upward to 398,000. The unemployment rate dipped to 3.5%, matching...
Inflation, wage numbers today are bad news for “soft landing” believers
Inflation, measured by the Federal Reserve’s preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures index climbed 6.8% in the twelve months that ended in June. That’s the fastest rate of growth since 1982. Core PCE inflation (that is after removing food and energy...
This looks like the Bear Market rally I’ve been waiting for
After looking like it was over earlier in the week with a significant pull back on Tuesday, July 26, stocks have rallied in the last two days, gaining 3.85% by the Thursday, July 28 close from that Tuesday low. And right now all the ducks are lined up in a row for a...
A very busy week ahead–Ukraine and commodities, tech stock earnings, and, of course, the Fed on interest rates
What a week ahead. I’d expect speculation about what the Federal Reserve will say on Wednesday to dominate a very lengthy slate of market news. No real suspense about whether or not the Fed will raise rates at its July 27 meeting. The central bank has made it...
Initial claims for unemployment edge upwards ahead of surge in announced layoffs
Initial claims for unemployment totaled 251,000 for the week ended July 16, up 7,000 from the week before, the Labor Department reported today, July 21. Economists were looking for 240,000 initial claims. That was the highest weekly number since November 13, 2021 The...
A full 100-basis-point interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve on July 27 is still unlikely but it’s no longer impossible
After Wednesday’s report that CPI inflation hit an annual 9.1% rate in June, a 100-basis-point interest rate increase at the Federal Reserve’s July 27 meeting is on the table. (Which is literally what Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told reporters...
CPI headline inflation up at 9.1% annual rate in June
It’s not the kind of historical comparison you want to hear. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI rose at a 9.1% annual rate in June. That was the highest annual rate since November 1981. (Just as the Volcker Fed was raising interest rates to...
Fed’s June minutes increase odds of a 75 basis point increase at July 27 meeting
In my opinion, this was the most important statement in the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting released today: Fed officials “recognized that policy firming could slow the pace of economic growth for a time, but they saw the return of inflation to...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: “Ouch! The Fed Gets Honest About Inflation”
My one-hundred-and-forty-eighth YouTube video “Ouch! The Fed Gets Honest About Inflation” went up today. In front of the Senate Finance Committee today, Fed chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed has all the tools it needs to fight inflation–except,...
Existing home sales hit two-year low in May–as prices see record high and mortgage rates rise
U.S. existing home sales tumbled to a two-year low in May as prices jumped to a record high-topping the $400,000 mark for the first time- and mortgage rates increased further, the National Association of Realtors reported today, June 21. It was the fourth straight...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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