 Disappointing numbers from the payroll survey by ADP Employer Services will keep the market on edge today as Wall Street waits for official government data on initial claims for unemployment tomorrow and then on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate on Friday.
Normally the ADP report doesn’t move the market very much since the survey doesn’t correlate very well with the official government numbers on the job market. But with worries high about the state of the U.S. economy and the potential for a big negative jobs number on Friday the negative surprise in the ADP data won’t do anything to lighten the dark mood on Wall Street.
 According to the ADP numbers, employers expanded payrolls by just 13,000 in June. The consensus among economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a gain of 60,000 jobs.
 The consensus among economists, according to Briefing.com, is that Friday’s payroll numbers will show that the U.S. economy lost a net 100,000 jobs in June and that the official unemployment rate climbed to 9.8% from 9.7%.
 Today’s data from ADP will raise fears that the consensus of a net 100,000 jobs lost is too low.
 Not a good way to begin the day after the beating stocks took yesterday.
Is anyone like me and wonder what good the “economists” are when they miss the mark by 460%?
georic:
But I am surprised that you have “sufficient” time to read my postings!
Jim or Ed,
Link to a very interesting and depressing article.http://www.cnbc.com/id/37997579
After reading this article do you think that the Fed/OCC is trying to squeeze out small/mid size banks so that they have fewer to oversee and more control over the financial system?
yx, as far as I know, Hoover’s words were “around the corner” not end of the tunnel.
Apart from that, I feel sorry that “they” don’t pay sufficient attention to what you post.
Foreclosed homes sold at 27% discount as SUPPLY grows. I posted several times here that US is overbuilt and (residential) real estate is at least 20% over priced.
But despite all I have said, I don’t think real estate is the hardest part of our economy. There will be light at the end of tunnel for real estate. However, the dark tunnel of job creation will be much LONGER. Because (I wrote some yesterday) the odds are stacked against job creation in this country.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-30/foreclosed-homes-in-u-s-sell-at-27-discount-as-distressed-supply-grows.html
I tend to weight the ADP data more than the labor dept.’s. Because ADP’s data is private job loss or creation which I consider a real thing. Labor’s data is mixed with, well who knows what. At least we know the short-term census hiring was mixed in.
China’s wage inflation.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-29/chinese-yuan-is-sideshow-to-looming-wage-inflation-commentary-by-andy-xie.html