Non-tariff barriers start to hit U.S. companies in China
A survey by investment companies AmCham China and AmCham Shanghai found that 52.1% of U.S. companies operating in China have seen an increase in non-tariff barriers to their business operations. The biggest problems reported were increased inspections (27.1%), slower...
Now who’s worried about a trade war? Certainly not buyers of U.S. stocks today
Today the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both hit record highs. The NASDAQ Composite was up 0.99% as of 2 p.m. New York time. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) advanced 0.95%. West Texas Intermediate crude...
Battle over bond yields, interest rates shifts to 2019
Remember back at the beginning of 2018 when bond investors and traders couldn’t agree on whether the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates two times, or three times or four times in the year? (It wound up being four.) Well, we’re looking at a replay...
Oil price volatility increases as we get closer to OPEC’s November 30 deadline
Oil prices were all over the chart on Wednesday, November 17, as negative data battled optimistic words. Look out for more days of this war as we get closer to the November 30 meeting of OPEC that is supposed to result (but might not) in an agreement to significantly...
Global bond markets decide Trump means more government spending, a big tax cut, bigger deficits, and higher inflation–and increased odds that the Fed will raise interest rates faster than expected just last week
Global bond markets fell to the tune of a more than $1 trillion loss this week after Donald Trump’s win in the U.S. presidential election. The market value of the Bank of America’s Global Broad Market Index, which tracks 24,000 bonds around the world, fell...
6 more points for my A-W investor’s guide to the post-Trump victory financial landscape
The problem with trying to put together a comprehensive guide to the likely investment impacts of a Trump administration on the fly in the day after the election is that you inevitably leave stuff out. This being the Internet, however, it’s easy to add on to...
A new landscape for investors after a Trump victory–my guide from A-W (I can’t find an X,Y, or Z)
And to think that just yesterday I was scouting for an investment that would let me go long the Mexican peso and thinking of cutting back my exposure to biotechs. Not today. My thinking on both those potential investments has been turned upside down by Donald’s...Three strikes today against oil
Crude oil prices moved lower again today, Friday, November 4. And there were plenty of reasons for the continued downward trend. Which suggests that the market is likely to continue to move lower on Monday. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell another 1.07%...
Economy adds 161,000 jobs in October; September revised up to 191,000; Fed on track to December rate increase
The U.S. economy added 161,000 jobs in October and the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the September job total upwards to 191,000. The original September report put the month’s job gains at 156,000. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were expecting the economy...
Just what a downward trend in oil prices needs–higher than expected U.S. oil inventories
This isn’t what oil markets needed after OPEC talks last weekend revealed the deep fissures among OPEC members that stand in the way of an agreement to reduce production emerging from the organization’s November 30 meeting. This morning the U.S. Energy...
Fed holds rates steady but says case for December move stronger
Odds for a December interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve climbed to 78% today after the U.S. central bank held short-term rates steady at 0.25%-0.50% at its Wednesday meeting, but said that “the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to...
Chickens come home to roost? After an earnings beat McDonald’s faces tough comparisons just as all-day breakfast becomes old hat
So now McDonald’s (MCD) comes to the hard part. On Friday October 21, McDonald’s reported third quarter earnings of $1.62 a share, 14 cents a share better than Wall Street projections. Revenue dropped 2.9% year over year, but at $6.42 billion still beat...
Apple earnings, revenue, and iPhone sales disappoint almost exactly as Wall Street had projected
Unfortunately for the price of Apple (AAPL) shares and for Apple shareholders, Wall Street estimates for the September quarter that Apple reported last night, October 25, were almost precisely on track. Apple beat earnings estimates by a penny, reporting $1.67 a...
Caterpillar and 3M beat on third quarter earnings, but lower fourth quarter guidance
This isn’t the pattern I want to see–although it is the one I’m worried about. Caterpillar (CAT) beat Wall Street earnings estimates for the third quarter by 9 cents; 3M (MMM), for its part, beat by a penny. But both companies also lowered guidance...
3 moves for a vulnerable market
If this market is vulnerable, what should I do? I’ve been asked that question repeatedly since I first called this market vulnerable back in my October 11 post “Suddenly U.S. stocks seem vulnerable.” To answer that–the what should I do...
Oil gains on a surprise drop in U.S. inventories
Oil prices jumped on a surprise draw down of U.S. crude inventories of 5.25 million barrels in today’s report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Analysts had been looking for an increase of 2.1 million barrels in U.S. inventories. U.S. benchmark...
Mild inflation numbers lead to mild market gains
The headline consumer price index, the government announced this morning, rose 0.3% in September. That follows on a 0.2% increase in August. The headline rate of inflation is now 1.5% year over year. That’s the highest rate of inflation for this number since...
Another indicator: Will the market reward Netflix blowout earnings tomorrow?
Netflix reported third quarter earnings of 12 cents a share, beating the Wall Street consensus by 7 cents a share. Revenue climbed 31.7% to meet Wall Street expectations. And the company raised guidance for the fourth quarter of earnings of 13 cents a share versus the...
Today’s IBM earnings will provide an indicator of market direction tomorrow
The market reaction tomorrow to IBM’s third quarter earnings, announced after the close today, will tell investors and traders a lot about what this market regards as a disappointment and how vulnerable U.S. stocks are to less than exciting earnings results. IBM...
Suddenly U.S. stocks seem vulnerable
It’s not like U.S. stocks didn’t have enough to worry about today. The bond market priced in the highest level of inflation expectations since May. Oil fell as Russia’s biggest producer Rosneft said it won’t cut output. Alcoa (AA), the company...
A week of oil talk–with volatility and (probably) higher oil prices
Lots of talk with the potential to move oil markets on tap this week. And already today we’re got the first installment of that talk from Russian President Vladimir Putin at the World Energy Congress in Istanbul. (The congress brings together OPEC and non-OPEC...
Jobs number comes in light but in an OK kind of way
The U.S. economy added 156,000 jobs in September after an upwardly revised August report of 167,000 net new jobs. The September number was less than the 172,000 jobs forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The official unemployment rate ticked up to 5% in the...
U.S.oil and gas rig count inches up again–it’s not enough to lift the drilling sector–yet
The total number of oil and natural gas rigs operating in the United States rose by 11 to 522 in the week ended September 30, according to Baker Hughes. That follows on last week’s increase of 5 rigs in operation. The bulk of the pick up came in oil rigs where...
You can read today’s inflation data two ways–which will the Fed pick?
Hope you weren’t expecting this morning’s inflation data to tell you whether or not the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its December 14 meeting. (I believe that an interest rate increase at the Fed’s November 2 meeting is just about a...
Good economic news from Census shows tale of two U.S. economies
Released yesterday, the Census Bureau’s annual report painted an extremely positive view of the economy as a whole. So positive, in fact, that I’ve actually got some hope now that the fundamentals of the economy might even justify record stock prices (at...
Worrying manufacturing news today is anxious set up for tomorrow’s August jobs report
Manufacturing activity in the United States contracted, unexpectedly, in August, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index released today, September 1. The index fell to 49.4 in August from 52.6 in July. That was the biggest drop in the...
So far the markets believe the Fed was bluffing in Jackson Hole speeches on September interest rate increase
Last week Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen tried to convince financial markets in her speech at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole get-together that an interest rate increase at the central bank’s September 21 meeting was still a possibility. But just as the...
What the Fed’s do nothing Wednesday said about an interest rate increase in September
My family and I move every 20 years or so whether we need to or not, so on Wednesday when the Fed was making its decision to keep interest rates right where they are, I was busy unpacking all the boxes that we’d packed on Tuesday. (I’m sooo looking forward to the day...
Looking at the Microsoft earnings beat that wasn’t
Shares of Microsoft (MSFT) closed up 5.31% today after the company announced earnings that beat Wall Street projections. It’s always worth taking a look at what “beating Wall Street projections” actually means in any specific case. Lowering...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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