Today, Monday November 29, it’s a tale of two bounces from Friday’s big sell off.
Technology stocks and especially big technology stocks are up big. At the close in New York Applied Materials was up 5.53%. Adobe (ADBE) was ahead 3.83%. Nvidia (NVDA) was higher by 5.95%. Amazon (AMZN) had gained 1.63%. Apple (AAPL) and Meta Platforms (AKA FB) were 2.19% and 1.47%, respectively. Qualcomm (QCOM) had gained 4.55%. Alphabet (GOOG) was higher by 2.32%. Microsoft (MSFT) had picked up 2.11%. NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) had climbed 5.41%.
In most of these stocks today’s gains made up for Friday’s losses–or more. For example, on Friday Applied Materials had dropped 3.84% and NXP Semiconductors was down 3.88%.
On the other hand, the “re-opening stocks” that got crushed Friday on fears that the Omicron Covid-19 variant would throw sand in the gears of the global economy showed only minor gains. American Airlines (AAL) down 8.97% on Friday was down 0.06% today at the close. Carnival (CCL), off 10.96% on Friday, was up just 1.17% today. Macy’s (M), down 5.16% on Friday, was down another 2.40% today.
The logic here is pretty clear. Even though the big tech stocks are already very, very expensive, they are the best defense against any economic turmoil caused by the new variant.
History is very persuasive on this trade. According to Bloomberg, since the onset of the Delta Variant in late May, the NYFANG+ Index has risen 16%, outpacing a 9% gain for the S&P 500. The average 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio for the NYFANG+ Index now stands at about 46 times, versus 21 times for the broader benchmark.
And since we don’t know really anything about the new Omicron Variant stocks that are sensitive to any Pandemic disruption are a risky bet. Which is why Disney (DIS) is down another 0.20% today and MGM Resorts International (MGM) is off 1.72%.