Good news on growth from China
The last thing the global economy needs right now is an economic disappointment on growth from China. And fortunately, today China reported third quarter GDP rose by 4.9% year over year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. That’s better than...
Procter & Gamble, like PepsiCo, reports higher revenue on lower volumes
There’s a pattern here: If you’re a big enough consumer goods company with the ability to raise prices and not hurt sales, then the just-ended quarter was a pretty good quarter. Today, October 18, Proctor & Gamble reported fiscal first quarter net...
Retail sales stronger than expected; Treasury prices fall and yields surge (some more)
Retail sales in September rose by 0.7% from August, the Commerce Department reported today. That was more than twice the Wall Street projection of 0.3% growth. I would note that these retail sales numbers are not adjusted for inflation. So yes, they may be...
This week earnings bring a test of regional bank stocks
In the coming week I expect a big earnings test for regional banks and a feW clues about consumer goods, airlines, and autos. Last week ended with great earnings reports from Big Banks JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C). Big Bank earnings...
We’re looking at a global debt bomb
“Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition!” Monty Python observed back in 1970 before attempting to torture a coal-miner’s wife with a dish rack. There’s an important investing version of this core truth: The financial market usually worries...
Just enough in today’s CPI inflation report to keep one more rate increase for 2023 on the table
Today’s Consumer Price Index report on inflation had just enough bad news on inflation to keep one more interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve on the table for 2023. The all items CPI inflation rate rose 0.4% in September from August. That was slightly...
PepsiCo beats on earnings, raises guidance
Clearly, inflation isn’t bad for everyone. Not if you have pricing power, anyway. Today, PepsiCo (PEP) reported earnings and sales that a beat Wall Street estimates, and raised its guidance for the next quarter. PepsiCo reported third quarter fiscal 2023...
News with the potential to move the markets this week: CPI inflation, Fed minutes, bank earnings
In one of my recent posts I wrote that the trend for the market is very uncertain at the moment and very dependent on news. This week will bring some of the news that will determine the market trend. Here’s a list in order of my sense of importance to the...
Exxon Mobil in talks to acquire Pioneer Natural Resources for $60 billion–I’m selling my position on Monday
The Wall Street Journal has reported that Exxon Mobil (XOM) is in advanced talks to buy Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) in a deal valued at $60 billion. Pioneer currently has a market cap of $55 billion. Throw in the debt that Exxon would be buying and there’s...
Selling 2 gold positions out of my portfolios tomorrow
Gold was up 1.9% in trading on COMEX today to $1876 an ounce on war in Israel and Gaza and fears that it would become a wider conflict in the region. I’ve been looking for an exit from two of my gold positions for a while now. And tomorrow is a good exit point,...
Will we see a market trend emerge this week from Friday’s big volatility day?
I’m hoping for some clarity this week on the market trend after Friday’s wild day. Friday’s intraday moves summed up the uncertainty about the direction of this market. After the huge surprise on the September jobs number, stocks fell immediately out...
So how high will yields go? I’m hearing 6% or even 7%
Today the yield on the 10-year Treasury closed at 4.71%. That was down 2 basis points on the day but in the last year the yield is up 96 basis points. Almost a full percentage point. How high can yields go? Bond traders and investors want to know. Investors in other...
The bond plunge (and soaring yields) isn’t limited to the United States
Yesterday, October 3, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury hit 5% for the first time since 2007. The yield on the German 10-year bond hit 3% for the first time since 2011. In one financial market after another higher U.S. yields are driving global bond prices lower...
Good news for inflation, interest rates, the Fed in today’s ADP jobs number if we can believe it
Private payrolls rose by just 89,000 jobs in September, according to figures published today by the ADP Research Institute. That’s the fewest jobs added in a month since the start of 2021. Private payrolls climbed 180,000 in August. The results trailed all...
The VIX Call Options I bought on my subscription JAM.com site are up 38% since September 25–hold ’em
The VIX, the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index, climbed another 12.32% today, October 2, to 19.78. The Call Options–with a strike at 17 and an expiration on December 20–I bought on the VIX on September 25 are up 38% as of the close on October 2. (I hold...
The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped another 13 basis points today, October 3
Where did the slow-moving, deep and placid Treasury market go? The yield on the 10-year benchmark Treasury–you know the one used to set the interest rate on things like mortgages–moved up another 13 basis points today, October 3, to 4.80%. That’s a...
I’ll be selling Nvidia out of my Volatility Portfolio (on my JAM subscription site) tomorrow
I’m going to take advantage of today’s pop in Nvidia (NVDA) to sell the shares out of my very short-term Volatility Portfolio tomorrow on my subscription JAM.com site, Tuesday, October 2. The shares closed up at the close today at $447.82, a gain of 2.95%...
Could be a rocky day for Tesla shares tomorrow, Monday.
It could be a rough day ahead for Tesla (TSLA).The company has broken four quarterly car delivery records in a row, but then the results for the current quarter–which could be announced as early as Monday, Ocroer 2, are likely to show that deliveries have...
45 days to the next government funding crisis?
The odds of another government shutdown “crisis” in 45 days will rise or fall with Representative Matt Gaetz’s (R-Florida) efforts to remove House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Gaetz and a small harder core of the hard core Republican right in the House...
Consumer showing signs of stress in August
Inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose 0.1% last month. The report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed inflation-adjusted spending on services rose 0.2%, helped by a pickup in outlays on transportation and recreation. Spending on merchandise fell 0.2%, the...
Low inflation in Fed’s favorite indicator says No interest rate increase at November 1 meeting
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index (PCE), rose at the slowest monthly pace in August since late 2020. The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out food and energy prices,...
Looking for signs of weakness in consumer spending? Did we just get one?
Today’s revisions of second quarter GDP showed that U.S. consumer spending grew only half as fast as reported in earlier estimates on the quarter. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic activity, rose an annualized 0.8% in the...
Mortgage rates hit a 23-year high–is this the peak? (Probably not)
Mortgage rates surged to a 23-year high this week. The rate on the average 30-year fixed mortgage increased to 7.31% from 7.19% the week prior, according to Freddie Mac. That’s the highest rate since mid-December 2000, when it averaged 7.42%. TThe higher rates have...
Have you missed it? Some stocks are on the brink of a correction
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index (closing price) peaked on July 31 at 4588.96. The index is down 5.9% since then (as of the September 22 close.) That’s not correction territory (a drop of 10% ore more) but I’d say stocks can feel the hot breath...
A tough day for tech–Part 2, Bad news from Adobe (and selling Adobe out of my Volatility Portfolio on JAM)
Now that Fed day is done and behind us, we return to our regularly scheduled programming. Back on September 15, I posted “A tough day for tech–Part 1” after news on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) reporting that the company was slowing...
No (2023) surprises Fed surprises on 2024
At today’s meeting the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee left the central bank’s policy interest rate at 5.25% to 5.50%. In its Dot Plot forecast the Fed signaled one more interest rate hike for 2023. In its forecast the bank said that rates...
What to watch for in Wednesday’s Dot Plot from the Fed
Here’s my cheat sheet of what to watch for in Wednesday’s Dot Plot revision of the Federal Reserve’s forecasts for the rest of 2023 and 2024. The last revisions before this came at the Fed’s June meeting so there’s reason to think that...
Moderna shares popped 3.2% yesterday–here’s why
Shares of Moderna (MRNA) closed up 3.18% yesterday, September 13, on news that 1. The Food & Drug Administration has approved updated Covid-19 vaccine boosters (including one from Moderna) and that the Centers for Disease Control was recommending the boosters for...
Will it work? People’s Bank tries to boost growth without tanking the yuan
The People’s Bank of China cut the amount of cash banks must hold in reserve for the second time this year. The move is an effort to boost flagging economic growth in China. The bank could have cut its benchmark interest rate in pursuit of the same goal. But...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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