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Stocks start 2020 in melt-up mood

Stocks start 2020 in melt-up mood

We’ve seen this before. And investors and traders seem determined to keep a good thing going–until it doesn’t work anymore. Today, January 2, the first trading day in the new year for U.S. markets, stocks were off to the rally races again. The...
Happy New Year!

Happy New Year!

3,2,1. The ball drops and we’ve all moved from 2019 to 2020. May the new year bring all the best to you and yours. Thanks for reading in 2019 and I’ll see you in 2020. Jim Jubak
2019 goes out with a hurrah!

2019 goes out with a hurrah!

Yesterday, December 31, all 11 of the sectors that make up the Standard & Poor’s 500 closed higher for the year. That’s the first time that’s happened since 2010. For the year the S&P 500 itself gained 29%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average...
A lot of data for a short holiday week

A lot of data for a short holiday week

Trading volumes will be low and investors attentions will be focused elsewhere than the financial markets, but this is a week with a surprising amount of market news. Tomorrow, Tuesday December 31, China announces the official Purchasing Managers Index for...
More stimulus on the way in China

More stimulus on the way in China

It looks like looser monetary policy is on the way in China for 2020. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said Monday the government will study further cutting bank reserve requirements in 2020. It’s a good bet that the Premier would have raised the possible policy...
2019 goes out with a hurrah!

The markets say “Happy Holidays!”

This morning it doesn’t matter that the Part 1 U.S.-China trade agreement isn’t signed and that we don’t have more than the bare, vague outlines of the deal. This morning it doesn’t matter that the smashing Conservative Party victory in the...
Do you believe Trump when he says a big China deal is near?

Do you believe Trump when he says a big China deal is near?

Today, Thursday December 12, just five minutes after stocks opened for trading in New York, President Donald Trump, tweeted that the U.S. and China are very close to signing a “big” trade deal. “They want it, and so do we!” he tweeted. Of course, last week President...
Inflation isn’t exactly dead

Inflation isn’t exactly dead

Wall Street is counting on the Federal Reserve to stay on the sidelines until September and then resume cutting interest rates. Some big money advisors are even counting on the Fed to cut interest rates again before September. Bloomberg ran an interview this morning...
China exports drop again in November

China exports drop again in November

China’s total exports dropped 1.1% year over year in November, the country’s customs administration said on Sunday. Total exports to the United States fell 23% year over year. That was the worst result for exports to the United States since February and a...
China bond defaults head for another record year

China bond defaults head for another record year

With 15 defaults in November, total onshore bond defaults have hit $120.4 billion yuan ($17.1 billion)in 2019, according to Bloomberg. That’s close to the 121.9 billion yuan record set in 2018. While the $17.1 billion in onshore defaults seems insignificant...
OPEC does nothing and markets seem to be ok with that

OPEC does nothing and markets seem to be ok with that

OPEC reached an agreement today to cut an additional 500,000 barrels a day from production. In reality that action is close to “no action” since OPEC has been informally making those supply reductions for most of the year thanks to voluntary cuts by Saudi...
Oil climbs ahead of December 5 OPEC meeting

Oil climbs ahead of December 5 OPEC meeting

Call it very, very cautious optimism. Maybe. Oil prices climbed ahead of the December 5 meeting of OPEC in Vienna. The oil market got a boost from a report today, December 4, from the U.S. Energy Information Administration that showed U.S. crude inventories fell by...
Earnings retreat for the fourth quarter?

Earnings retreat for the fourth quarter?

Wall Street analysts always cut their earnings estimates as a quarter progresses. (Which then lets lots of companies beat forecasts when they actually report.) But for the fourth quarter of 2019, the cuts to earnings estimates for the companies in the Standard &...