It’s not just Treasuries–how about the rout from AI debt at Oracle?
On Thursday Oracle’s (ORCL) credit default swaps spiked to record highs. Investors are worried at the size of Oracle’s debt load. And wonder if profits will arrive early enough to meet the debt burden. Oracle isn’t an isolated worry–it’s just the poster child...
Adding to my long-dated Treasury short TBF
The ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBF) is up 10.22% for 2026 as of the close on September 23. The ETF, which gains as long-dated Treasury bonds fall in price, is likely be a profitable hedge–and indeed just plain profitable–into 2027 as we get...
Treasury plunge gets plungier–10-year yield hits 5.20%
Another day, another 9-basis-point jump in the yield for 10-year Treasuries. The yield hit 5.20% today and is now up 51 basis points in a month and 106 basis points, that’s a little more than a full percentage point, in a year. (Remember rising yields mean falling...
Viking Therapeutics pops on GLP-1 news, gains 36% on the day
Waiting for a catalyst on Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) has certainly been trying. But today the stock gained 36% on news of very positive Phase 2 obesity data for injectable VK2735, Viking Therapeutics’ dual GLP-1/GIP agonist. Even after today’s gain, I’d note my...
A late day rally lifts gold and silver–this looks like a technical bounce
Traders saw an explosive move in metals last part of the day with miners in the VanECK GOLD Miners ETF (GDX) up as much as 4%, the GDXJ junior gold miners ETF up over 4% and silver juniors also showing a 4% gain The late move was mainly a bullion-and-margin leverage...
There’s no room at the chip foundry–through 2026
Global wafer foundry utilization is nearing 90% as intense AI-driven demand keeps advanced and mature chip capacity tight through 2026, according to Digitimes. Overall fab utilization is approaching 90%, with no significant price relief expected before 2027. Surging...
In August China adds the most to gold reserves since 2023
China added the most gold to its reserves since 2023, accelerating purchases in August even as gold prices surged. Holdings at the People’s Bank of China, one of the world’s biggest official-sector buyers, rose by 650,000 ounces, according to data released by the...
Walmart earnings disappointment, consumer confidence drops–time to walk toward exits on more consumer stocks PEP, BUD
Last week, Walmart’s (WMT) quarterly sales fell short of expectations. Sales at U.S. stores open at least a year, excluding fuel, rose 2.6% in the second quarter, shy of the lowest analyst estimate compiled by Bloomberg. I still see Walmart as the best combination of...
There is no free lunch, Treasury Secretary Bessent: Bond yields down, dollar down, gold prices up
On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced that it would raise the maximum size of buybacks for longer-dated nominal coupon securities in the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year sectors from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The program takes effect...
Buy Alibaba on its move up to #1 global AI model
Alibaba’s (BABA) open-weight models have accumulated more than 3 billion global downloads in the past six months, eclipsing Meta Platforms Inc., Alphabet Inc. and domestic peers to become the world’s No. 1 artificial-intelligence model. Qwen, Alibaba’s family of AI...
Now that’s circular: The profit boom at tech companies like Amazon and Alphabet comes from investments in AI companies
Tech giants like Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOG) have powered the stock market to record highs. But in recent months, a big driver of those two companies’ profits came from an unusual source: The increasing value of their investment stakes in artificial intelligence...
China adds to gold reserves for a 21st consecutive month
Not only did China’s central bank expand its gold reserves for a 21st straight month in July, but it also made its largest single-month purchase of gold in nearly three years. The extended buying streak underscores a broader move by global central banks to strengthen...
Add to AbbVie on latest acquisition
I’ve owned shares of AbbVie (ABBV) in my Diividend Portfolio since January 29, 22020. The gain during that period through the close on June 30 has been 201% plus dvidends. (The stock currently pays a 2.72% forward dividend.) Besides my adding to my position in the...
The bond market says interest rates are going up
The Federal Reserve doesn’t meet on interest rates until June 17–but a week before that meeting the $31 trillion Treasury market has a message for the U.S. central bank: Interest rates aren’t high enough. Yields on two-year Treasury notes, the maturity...
Selling by India adds to the weakness in gold
India’s central bank looks to be selling a portion of its gold holdings protect the rupee, according to an analysis by Bloomberg. The Reserve Bank of India likely sold gold reserves worth roughly $12 billion in the two weeks through May 22, while buying $7.5 billion...
Now that’s a narrow market!
Artificial intelligence infrastructure spending is poised to become the dominant force behind S&P 500 earnings growth over the next two years, according to new analysis from Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs projects that beneficiaries of AI infrastructure investment...
Lilly adds new obesity drug-and revenue growth tops expectations
What do the stocks of AI chip maker Nvidia (NVDA) and weight-loss drug leader Eli Lilly (LLY) have in common? Their lofty valuations depend on years and years of fast growth. At a trailing 12-month price to earnings ratio, Nvidia isn’t especially expensive–as...
India is on the frontlines in global Iran war fallout
India’s central bank intervened to shore up the struggling rupee as high oil prices pushed the currency to a record low. The Reserve Bank of India sold small amounts of dollars in the onshore currency market on Wednesday, traders told Bloomberg. The rupee slipped to...
India roils the gold and silver markets–how long will that continue?
This week we’ll get to see if the restrictions India slapped on gold and silver imports in an effort defend the rupee seNd precious metals tumbling again in the week ahead. India tightened restrictions on gold imports again Thursday, imposing fresh limits on duty-free...
Pan American Silver meets the test in its earnings report
Pan American Silver (PAAS) reported earnings and revenue on Tuesday that met my goals for a silver miner in this market. My premise is that the silver stock to buy is one that combines expanding production with declining production costs. Which is exactly what Pan...
Adding two gold stocks on short-term weakness for long-term gains
I don’t know how long the weakness in gold might last–gold is down 8.4% from the start of the Iran war on February 28 through the close on April 20. Or how big any further decline from here might be-—my crystal ball is not doing a bang-up job of predicting the...
3-5 years to repair Qatar LNG war damage changes the story for U.S. exporters–adding more shares of LNG
The early stages of the Iran war had relatively little impact of U.S. natural gas prices and revenue projections for U.S. LNG exporters. That’s because U.S. LNG export terminals are operating at or near full capacity, so disruptions to global LNG supplies...
Will the Fed’s Wednesday Dot Plot move gold?
No secret. The big financial event of the week is the Wednesday, March 18, meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee. But the news out of that meeting will likely NOT be a decision on interest rates themselves. As of Friday, the CME FedWatch Tool was...
Buying Costco: one of the few companies to benefit from higher gasoline prices
Today I’m adding Costco Wholesale (COST) to my Jubak Picks Portfolio. I’m looking for stocks of companies that might actually benefit from the effects of the war with Iran on the U.S. economy. There aren’t many candidates. Costco is one. (Walmart is another but it’s...
If you’re looking for a highly leveraged play on the worst case scenario in the Strait of Hormuz, I think it’s natural gas and not oil
No one knows, of course, how the attack on Iran will play out in either the medium or long term. The energy and financial markets were closed for the weekend, so they’ve given us relatively subdued feedback on the events. It will be “interesting” to see on Monday how...
Why gold is a long-term winning and safe bet
The argument for owning gold for the long term comes down to simple supply and demand. Unlike the world’s supply of fiat currencies where supply will soar as the world’s indebted countries–just about everyone–print more money to pay their bills, the global...
Would you buy a 100-year AI bond even from Google?
Alphabet/Google (G00G) borrowed another $20 billion in its biggest ever U.S. dollar bond sale on Monday. And that’s just the beginning. The company is also planning debut deals in Switzerland and the UK. Including the sale of 100-year bonds. Drum role, please: That...
Will earnings this week be enough to restore tech leadership in the market?
A week of Big Tech earnings reports will confirm or reverse what sure looks like a sector rotation away from tech shares and into metal company stocks. The group known as the Magnificent Seven–Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), Microsoft...
Could memory chip shortages, price hikes put tech earnings at risk?
Prices for memory chips are forecast to soar in 2026. but what just as bad/even worse it looks like chip customers are looking at serious supply shortages during the year. Higher prices and supply shortages could be enough to put earnings at risk at some high multiple...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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