IMF slashes global economic growth projections again
The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for global economic growth in today’s regular update of its World Economic Outlook. The IMF is now projecting global economic growth of 3.6% in 2022. That’s down from a forecast of 4.4% growth in January...
After news of acquisition Pfizer pops 4.33% on day
Pfizer (PFE) will buy privately held respiratory syncytial virus drug maker ReViral for up to $525 million. Wall Street liked the deal–the stock was up 4.33% today, April 7–because it fits with Pfizer’s RNA virus program–which produced a...
Oil tumbles again–I think the selling is an over-reaction
Today, April 6, oil fell to the lowest since mid-March today. U.S.benchmark West Texas Intermediate closed below $97 a barrel at $96.23 (down 4.98%) for May delivery. International benchmark Brent lost 4.63% to close at $101.07 a barrel. The news driving the selloff:...
Is this stock market too directionless to be tradable in the short-term?
On Monday consumer discretionary stocks gained as investors decided risk was again “buyable.” The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) gained 2.25% on the day while the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETFdipped 0.31%. Tuesday,April 5...
China puts Shanghai into Omicron lockdown
The city of 25 million and China’s financial hub began a phased lockdown today. A wave of Omicron infections in Shanghai hit a record of 3,450 daily asymptomatic cases on Sunday. That’s nearly 70% of China’s total. The lock down on eastern side of...
Oil is up, stocks (outside energy) are down–how long will this anti-correlation last?
Oil rallied again today with U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate up 4.79% on the day to $114.79 a barrel and international benchmark Brent up 5.12% to $121.39 a barrel. So, naturally, oil and gas equities stocks are up today. And the broader market is down. What...
Beijing steps in and China stocks soar
Yesterday, March 15, I was thinking that I wished I didn’t own any China stocks at all. Today, March 16, I wished I owned more. Lot’s more. First, China’s top financial policy group vowed to ensure stability in capital markets, support overseas stock...
Airlines climb on oil drop, traffic pickup–now it gets tricky
Oil prices collapsed. And airlines reported a better than expected pick up in traffic. So airline stocks soared with the most stressed operators showing the biggest gains in their shares. Delta Air Lines (DAL) closed up 8.70% on the day. United Airlines (ULA) picked...
Perfect storm of bad news on oil supply sends WTI crude over $120 a barrel
I suppose there is something else that could add to the supply of bad news today on oil supply, but we’ve already got a full dance card At 2 P.m. in New York U.S. crude benchmark West Texas Intermediate traded up 5.07% to $121.55 a barrel; international...
Powell tells markets to expect 25 basis point interest rate increase on March 16
Not 0%. But then almost no one expects the Federal Reserve to stand pat on interest rates at its March 16 meeting–even after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Not 50 basis points. Although many on Wall Street project that the Fed will throw its customary caution...
PCE inflation accelerates in January but not enough to spook markets
The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, rose at a year over year 6.1% rate in January. That tops the 5.8% annual rate in December. Economists had been projecting a 6% increase for January. The core PCE...
Federal Reserve’s January 26 minutes already outdated by inflation, jobs news
Back on January 26–a date so far in the past as to be positively neolithic if judged by changes in financial data–according to minutes of that central bank meeting related today, February 16, Federal Reserve officials concluded that they would start...
Oil moves toward $95 a barrel on rising Ukraine war fears
International benchmark Brent crude jumped as much as 4.7% to $95 a barrel for the first time since 2014. Brent was up 23.68% and trading at $94.77 at 3 p.m. New York time Friday. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate, which normally trades below Brent in price, was...
Disney beats on revenue, earnings–and new streaming subscribers
So much for fears the Disney (DIS) would follow the disappointing course plotted by Netflix (NFLX) and report disappointing numbers for new subscriptions to its Disney Plus streaming service. For the December quarter, the company’s first quarter of fiscal 2022,...
Selling Amazon tomorrow–worrying signs in core e-commerce business
Investors have been really impressed by Amazon’s fourth quarter earnings report. And there were some impressive numbers in the report for the quarter. Amazon’s cloud services unit, AWS, saw revenue growth accelerate again to a 40% growth rate. Revenue...
U.S. economy adds 467,000 jobs in January–more than economists had expected and cementing the Fed’s plan to raise interest rates in March
The U.S. economy added 467,000 jobs in January. The official unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4% from 3.9% in December, as more people moved off the sidelines to enter the labor market. Over the past 12 months, the United States has added nearly 7 million jobs....
The limits of stock market history: it’s not a great guide right now
I’m a big fan of history. I study it. I love reading it. I find the patterns of the past fascinating. Both in themselves and for what they tell us about our own time and the likely future. But…I just don’t think stock market history is a very...
On second look market decides Microsoft earnings were good news
The reaction to Microsoft’s (MSFT) earnings report yesterday after the market close tells you that this market is poised at an earnings inflection point. Earnings, especially technology company earnings, are going to be strong this quarter, but the earnings...
More hedges against Russia/Ukraine conflict and higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve
I only recommend options on my subscription sites JubakAM.Com and JugglingWithKnives.com. Over the weekend I recommended using natural gas stocks as a way to hedge the risk of a Russia/Ukraine conflict and ensuing sanctions against Russia. I recommended shares of...
Putting on hedges for a Russia-Ukraine conflict today (as in NOW)
I only recommend options on my subscription sites JubakAm.Com and JugglingWithknives.com. And this week on those sites I’ve closed the two VIX CALL Options I bought back on December 31 as protection (and potential profits) from an increase in market volatility...
It’s a bull market on inflation fears and scary Fed forecasts–which is actually a good thing
Once upon a time there was a stock market with what the central bank called “transitory” inflation. Wall Street money managers worried that the central bank was behind the curve on fighting inflation and projected that interest rates would go up in...
It’s official: NASDAQ Composite is in a correction (thanks to the continued rout in tech stocks)
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed down 1.15% on Wednesday, January 19. That marked the first close for the index in correction territory since March. (The common definition of a correction is a drop of 10% or more.) The technology-heavy index is down 8.3% so far in...
People’s Bank moves to juice China’s economy earlier than I expected
Today, the People’s Bank of China cut its key interest rate for the first time in almost two years to help support China’s economy. The People’s Bank of China lowered the rate at which it provides one-year loans to banks by 10 basis points. Not a huge...Big banks deliver mixed start to Q4 earnings season with JPMorgan down and Wells Fargo up
Sing along: One of these banks is not like the others. One of these banks doesn’t belong. This morning big money center banks JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Citigroup (C) delivered disappointing reports on fourth quarter revenue and earnings. Shares of JPMorgan Chase...
Buying Wells Fargo in Jubak Picks ahead of earnings
Wells Fargo (WFC) is scheduled to report fourth quarter 2021 earnings on Friday, January 14. The bank is expected to be one of the few big money center banks to show a significant increase in earnings for the lat quarter of 2021 from the fourth quarter of 2020 (when...
Performance report for Dividend Portfolio for 2021–total return for 2021 was 18.59% and dividend yield was 3.13%
One of my many New Year’s resolutions (I get pretty granular. Poor Richard has nothing on me when it comes to goal setting for self-improvement) was to do a better job of keeping the performance reports of my portfolios up to date. I’ve fallen two years...
Markets don’t like what they hear in Fed minutes from December
Today, the Federal Reserve released its minutes from its December 15 meeting of its interest-rate setting body the Federal Open Market Committee. Investors and traders didn’t like what they thought they heard–a growing consensus on a first interest rate...
Should you invest in China now? Attacking the puzzle with buys on Monday of TCEHY and FXI
In other years, this would be a no-brainer Yes! What we have right now is a classic, tried-and-true set up for big gains from buying China stocks. China is near the end, probably, of a big sell off. We’re talking drops of 20% or more. Much more. Market leaders...
There looks to be enough fuel for the Santa Claus rally
Judging from the close of Monday’s trading session, there looks to be enough fuel for a Santa Claus rally to end 2021. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed up 1.38% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.98%. The NASDAQ Composite was ahead by 1.39%...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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