You know that Disney (DIS) is really serious about the likelihood of continued social distancing measures disrupting movie going for months when it delays the release date of Black Widow, once intended as the tentpole of its summer schedule. Black Widow has been pushed back to November 6–a compromise in my opinion that still gives the studio room for more delay before the holiday movie season.
With Black Widow delayed all other Disney/Marvel dominoes have tumbled. Eternals goes to February 12, 2021. Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings moves to May 7, 2021. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness slides to November 5, 2021. Thor: Love and Thunder goes all the way to February 18, 2022. Black Panther 2 is now set to debut May 6, 2022, and Captain Marvel 2 has been set for July 8, 2022.
The shifts mean, to my counting, a delay of about 6 months or more in movie revenue. There is also the possibility that with other studios also delaying their big movies that the industry will wind up with a glut of big titles all hitting the market at the same time and competing for revenue.
Disney shares slipped today by 0.17% to $101.07.
On the long side, I own the shares in my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio. For the short-term and on the short side I bought Put Options, a bet that a stock will fall in price, with a strike price of $100 and a September 18, 2020 expiration on March 31 in my Volatility Portfolio on my subscription JugglingWithKnives.com and JubakAM.com sites.