The last thing the global economy needs right now is an economic disappointment on growth from China.
And fortunately, today China reported third quarter GDP rose by 4.9% year over year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. That’s better than economics had expected and it’s within striking distance of Beijing’s goal of 5% growth for the year. Economists are still expecting growth to slow to 4.5% in 2024.
The positive growth story was built on strength in consumer spending. The worry here is that some part of the positive growth surprise on consumer spending is based on year to year comparisons with 2022 when Covid-19 lockdowns were still in pace min major Chinese cities.Still unemployment fell to 5%, which suggests that more workers will have something in their pockets to spend.
Not that there wasn’t bad news in today’s report. The government is still looking to stabilize the plunging property development sector. And the fight against inflation is far from won.
But now at least the global economy, whatever its major problems at this point in the credit cycle, has solid growth from both China and the United States, the world’s two economic engines.