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Maybe you can’t remember when the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury fell through 4% and looked headed to 3.5%.

It might be hard to remember because it was so long ago. Like two weeks.

Monday, February 5, the yield on the 10-year Treasury completed a round trip, rising 14 basis points in the morning to 4.16%. (Today, the 10-year yield fell back to 4.08%)

The causes were the usual: economic reports that signaled the economy was running hotter than expected, and comments from the Federal Reserve pushing back the likely date of the first interest rate cut.

The Institute for Supply Management’s surfy for the service sector rose to 53.4. (In this survey anything above 50 signals an economic expansion.) The strong report on the service sector echoes last week’s news on solid growth in the manufacturing sector survey. The pick up in the services survey was the largest in four months.

And Fed chair Jerome Powell said in an interview that aired on CBS’s 60 Minutes last night that policymakers will likely wait beyond March to cut rates. Today Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said that officials have time to gauge incoming data before cutting borrowing costs.

The odds of the Fed cutting rates for the first time at its March 20 meeting are down to 14.5% today, according go the CME FedWatch Tool. (Let me help you with the math–that means the odds of no cut rose to 85.5%.) On January 2, the FedFunds Futures market was pricing in an 80% chance of an interest rate cut at the March meeting.

The market still favors an initial cut on May 1. The CME FedWatch Tool put the odds of a May 1 initial cut of 25 basis points or more at 627% this morning.

My opinion is that May 1 is going to turn out to be too soon for the Fed too, given continued reports of economic strength. (Which let me remind us all is good news in the real world where people need jobs with higher wages if here going to keep on spending and saving.)

Watch for the CME odds on a May 1 cut to come down. That would imply a continued increase in Treasury yields. How high can they go? Depends on how strong the economic reports on this amazing and surprising economy are over the next few weeks.

That said, a cut in interest rates is still in the cards. Look for it in June or so.