Today with the yield on the 10-year Treasury down to 2.02%, a drop of 2 basis points, two Wall Street heavy weights are predicting that we haven’t seen a bottom in yield yet.
Not by a long shot.
Goldman Sachs today cut its forecast for the year-end yield on the 10-year Treasury to 1.75%. That matches the May 31 projection from JPMorgan Chase of 1.75%.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury stood at 2.4% at the end of March.
If yields continue to fall as these two companies project, investors can expect a weaker U.S. dollar and higher bond prices–which would be good for bond ETFs such as the Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) and the Vanguard Short Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) that I recently made the first two picks in my Special Report 10 Best Picks for the Rest of 2019. Both ETFs are now members of my 12-18 month Jubak Picks Portfolio. This scenario would also be good for gold and gold stocks such as Barrick Gold (GOLD) another Best 10 Picks that I also recently added to my Jubak Picks portfolio.
In most cases falling yields support higher stock prices–unless investors and trades think that yields have fallen so far that they signal a potential recession. So far that thought is buried deep in investor psychology with the consensus seeing a Goldilocks market of 2% growth, 2% yields, and less than 2% inflation.