As of the close on March 1, the Shanghai Composite was up 14.35% for the last month. That’s super for an economy that’s swimming in bad debt and facing a slowing global economy and lagging export demand.I think it’s fair to say that the rally in Chinese stocks has been built on anticipation of a U.S.-China trade deal and more stimulus cash from the People’s Bank and the central government.

In other words we’re looking at a very standard “Buy on the rumor and sell on the news” rally. It’s too late to buy now, in my opinion, since the anticipation has already raised share prices. So the important question becomes when to sell?My answer is not quite yet because anticipation has a little more room to play out. But we’re talking a week or two.

Here’s my take on way this anticipatory period is set to play out.Next week an extremely important gathering of China’s leaders kicks off on Tuesday with a work report from Premier Li Kequiang on the party’s 2019 goals for economic expansion, inflation, money supply, credit growth and other areas. The meeting wraps up on March 15 with a press briefing from Li that sums up the decisions on economic policy.What everyone wants to know is how much stimulus the government plans for 2019 and how it will balance that stimulus with the need to restrain credit growth and especially the rise in bad debt in the country’s financial system. The key number here is the target rate for economic growth in 2019. For the past two years party leaders have set the growth rate at 6.5%. This year the growth rate could be anywhere, rumors in advance of the meeting say, from 6% to 6.5%.

The other big news of the meeting will be any plans to open the Chinese economy to overseas investors and businesses and to reform the Chinese economy. Decisions on these items will set the context for the talks now scheduled for right after this meeting adjourns between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Right now the rallying Shanghai market is anticipating that the two leaders will sign an agreement ending the threat of a trade war between the United States and China.My expectations now are that the leadership meeting in China will result in rhetoric that provides a significant boost to hopes for a strengthening of the Chinese economy and to the prospects of a significant agreement with the United States on trade. I also expect that the meeting between Trump and Xi will result in the two leaders putting their signatures on something that can be portrayed as a successful end to the negotiations and as likely to lead to an improvement in the growth of Chinese exports.

None of that is guaranteed, of course. But that kind of rhetorical “solution” seems, to me the most likely outcome.

And then will come the second guessing and the analysis that argues that nothing said in either venue will do much to increase growth in the Chinese and global economy. And that, in fact, the agreement between the United States and China is a long way from the “historic” agreement that White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow keeps touting.And that’s when I’d like to sell–when the dew is still on the pumpkin and before everybody starts to point out all the ways that the deal is less than what was hoped for.

The timing here and the market reaction bears very close watching, but this is currently my thinking about when I’d look to “thin” China exposure in my portfolios.