I ran the prices and the performance of the 15 Dip-o-Meter stocks last night to see if any were yet in Buy-on-the-dip category.
Of course all those numbers have been left needing big revisions after today’s rally. (I’ll wait a day on that revision to see what surprises tomorrow might bring.)
But the Dip-o-Meter calculations from last night, outdated as they are, do raise an important buy-on-the-dip question: How big a drop is big enough in this coronavirus crisis?
A 20% drop is often and conventionally considered to be enough to create a buying opportunity in an attractive stock.
And by that rule, 12 stocks in the Buy-o-meter list make the cut off since they’ve fallen 20 or so from their January or February highs.
As of last night Twilio (TWLO) was down 20.1%. UPS (UPS) was down 23.0%, Starbucks (SBUX) was down 19.6%. Carnival (CCL) was down 38.7%. Cheniere Energy (LNG) was down 23.47%. China Southern Airlines (ZNH) was down 21.7%. Cirrus Logic (CRUS) was down 20.0%. First Quantum Minerals (FQVLF) was down 28.8%. Freeport McMoRan (FCX) was down 25.6%. Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) was down 24.1%. Royal Caribbean (RCL) was down 42.1%. Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) was down 22.3%. And Xilinx (XLNX) was down 20.5%.
Those are huge retreats but are these stocks bargains no?
I have trouble believing that cruise stocks such as Carnival and Royal Caribbean have put the worst behind them. Same with energy stocks such as Cheniere Energy and Pioneer Natural Resources and commodity stocks such as copper miners First Quantum and Freeport McMoRan. The case for and against Starbucks and China Southern Airlines depends on whether the numbers showing the number of new cases in China falling rapidly can be believed. Technology stocks like Skyworks and Cirrus? The news even out of Apple is confusing at best. And what about the rising odds of a U.S. recession?
So I’m still looking for clarity–and further declines–before pulling the trigger on any of these.