Today I posted my three-hundred-and-fifth YouTube Video: What About That 2.4% GDP Growth Rate Surprise?
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Today’s video is What About That 2.4% GDP Growth Rate Surprise? Economists were expecting a 1.5% annual growth in the second quarter, but the first read reported a 2.4% growth rate–up from 2% in the first quarter. Where did the growth come from? Is the economy inexplicably stronger than anyone expected? Why haven’t the Fed rate increases dampened growth? How is inflation coming down as growth continues? There are suggested answers to these questions within the GDP report itself. The main explanation is that this trend, like all economic trends, is affected by lags. You can also see a shift in where the growth is coming from. GDP growth has recently a result of increases in consumption, while growth from business investments has been more subdued. Consumer spending was up in the most recent quarter, but it was only up 1.6%, not as high as the overall 2.4% growth rate. Where did the rest of the growth come from? Investments. Business investments came in at a 4.6% annual increase. Momentum built up by the Inflation Reduction Act, the subsidies and actual funding for business investment is still kicking in and we’re seeing an investment boom at the moment. Consumer spending going up 1.5% is positive, but what’s the trend on consumer spending? My guess is somewhere in the third or fourth quarter, we’ll see business investment peak and we’ll go back to a familiar growth pattern that focuses on consumer spending, where the Fed’s interest rates are more important.
Here’s the link: