At the close today, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up another 1.54%.
Putting this question at the top of many investors’ and traders’ minds: Is there any way to participate in this blow out rally without real adding an unacceptable amount of risk?
The 5.83% drop in Tesla (TSLA) shares today on news that a big investor had sold part of his position is a reminder of the kind of risk we’re looking at in current prices.
At the close shares of Apple (AAPL) were down 2.07%. Amazon (AMZN) was ahead but only by 0.92% The Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) was up 0.89% while the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) had gained 1.45%.
So where’s the money going today?
I see two destinations.
First, cash is flowing into technology names outside the usual suspects–especially if they’ve been weak lately. So genome testing equipment maker Illumina (ILMN) had gained 4.80% as of the close. Chip equipment maker ASML (ASML) was higher by 3.00%. European chip makers NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) and Infineon Technologies (IFNNY) gained 3.04% and 2.90%, respectively. Skyworks Systems (SWKS) and Cirrus Logic (CRUS), suppliers to Apple, gained 4.66% and 2.90%, respectively.
Second, cash moved into stocks outside technology that have gone nowhere in the technology-based rally but that would move up in a strengthening economy. So, for example, Caterpillar (CAT) gained 2.20% today and Cummins (CMI) was up 0.84% as of the close
This rotation will need to overcome the challenge tomorrow of a new report on initial claims for unemployment and Friday’s report on the job market in August. Any greater than expected weakness in those numbers is likely to send money right back into the technology stocks that seem able to grow even during a coronavirus downturn.
Today’s ADP report on jobs in the private sector was a disappointment. The report, which doesn’t track the official Labor Department report very well showed, an increase of 428,000 jobs in August. Great–except that economists were looking for an increase of 1.17 million.