When elephants fly–dividends from emerging market stocks
When emerging stock markets hand you lemons, make lemonade. Specifically dividend-paying lemonade. So far 2010 hasn’t exactly been kind to emerging market stocks. The ETF (exchange traded fund) that tracks the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM) was down 6.4%...Lower than expected inflation in China puts off currency, interest rate changes
 Consumer prices in China rose for the third month in a row in January. But the 1.5% year-over-year increase was less than the 2.1% increase economists had expected.  That has led stocks in China to rally for a third day on speculation that lower-than-expected...China's imports surge 86% in January
No signs that China’s economy is slowing down in these numbers. China’s imports jumped a record 86% in January from the same month in 2009. This increase, the third straight monthly climb, far outstripped a 21% increase in exports. The growth in exports, however, was...Forget the January effect–this year watch the Lunar New Year effect
When thinking about when to buy Chinese stocks, don’t forget the Lunar New Year effect. China’s New Year holiday stretches from February 13 to February 21 this year. And Shanghai and other Chinese stock markets will be closed for five days from Monday February 15...The euro crisis isn't a global crisis–yet
One crisis or two? How you answer that question goes a long way to determining your investment strategy right now. If the euro crisis and the bank lending crisis in China are all part of the same crisis, you should stay out of all equity markets until the world works...How to build a global portfolio: What countries do you want to own?
If you were building a global stock portfolio for the long run—let’s say 2020 and beyond—how would you weight the world’s stock markets? Personally, over that time period I’d pick India over China, Poland over India, and Brazil over them all. And I’d give U.S. stocks...China's imports may have soared in January: Does that mean anything?
 Numbers like that would sure make the rest of the world feel better about China. They might even put to rest some of the worries about a slowdown in China’s growth as the government tightens standards for bank lending.  China’s imports climbed 100% in January,...Can the Chinese consumer save the global economy?
If, as I argued in my January 29 post https://jubakpicks.com/2010/01/29/maybe-the-u-s-consumer-is-never-coming-back-and-the-global-economy-will-stay-awash-in-excess-capacity/ , the free-spending, never met a credit card they didn’t like U.S. consumer of 2006 and...Are traders trying to talk down China's stock market?
Just something to keep in mind when you listen to yet another big money guy tell you how dangerous China’s stock markets are now: they’re probably buying. Or will soon do so. I had this thought as I listened Friday to a Bloomberg interview with George Soros from the...China's stocks are still falling but other emerging markets aren't following so closely
For China’s stock markets, right now all news is bad news. Take new data from a survey of purchasing managers for January released by HSBC and Markit Economics released on Monday, February 1. The index, roughly equivalent to the survey of purchasing managers conducted...The rout in global stocks is a tempest in the teapot of China's command economy
We’re getting a lesson in exactly how messy a command economy can be in China right now. And it’s roiling stock markets around the globe. I’m sure that voters from Homer, Alaska, to Lubec, Maine, (and from Tokyo to Athens for that matter) have watched in envy over the...Stocks in China, Brazil climb but is this the end of the emerging markets correction?
Stocks in China closed up today, January 28, in Shanghai and Hong Kong, breaking a six day losing streak. Shares of other emerging markets were ahead at noon in London. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index was up 1.3%. Six straight declines have taken the index down 9.7%...More pain in emerging markets but isn't that a good thing in the long run?
The correction in the world’s emerging stock markets continues. At noon in London today, January 27, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index was down 0.5%. That brings the index’s six day retreat, the longest slide in a year, to 7.8%. There’s just enough news of tighter...When to buy
If this is a correction and if this is therefore a buying opportunity, how long do you wait? That’s the most asked question I’m seeing in the comment sections of the Jubak Picks today. My opinion? I think we’ve got more downside next week. And I’m going to explain why...Sentiment shifting on China: Is a buying opportunity ahead?
Investors have turned bullish on the United States and are less bullish—if not actually bearish so far– on China, according to a Bloomberg survey of subscribers. Investors who have been waiting for a buying opportunity in China and other emerging markets may be...10.5% GDP growth from China tomorrow will move global markets–but in which direction?
 China is scheduled to release statistics on fourth quarter 2009 GDP growth tomorrow, January 21. And the consensus among forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg is that China’s GDP grew by 10.5% from the fourth quarter of 2008. 10.5% could just be too much of a good...Google's China troubles not so great for Baidu?
Troubles at Baidu (BIDU)? Traders jumped into shares of Baidu last week on the theory that Google’s (GOOG) troubles in China—and the likely shutdown of the company’s Chinese search engine—would be good news for the biggest domestic search company. Today they seem to...Time to stop believing that capitalism will liberalize China's society
The last few months haven’t been kind to those who think that if we just bring China into the world economy Western-style political democracy and legal rights will follow. I think you have to be in deep, deep denial to continue to believe that political liberalization...China isn't an asset bubble waiting to burst–it's worse
I think investors are worried about the wrong kind of crisis in China. Worry seems to focus on the possibility of an asset bubble and the change that it will burst sometime in the next two to three months. I’m more concerned about a slide into a crisis that will be an...Iron ore wars get nasty: Higher ore prices–and more acquisitions by China–ahead
The war of words—and sometimes deeds—continues between China and the world’s biggest iron ore producers, BHP Billiton (BHP), Rio Tinto (RTP), Vale (VALE). The producers seem intent on freezing China out of the annual negotiations that set iron ore prices for the year...China's exports up, currency to follow by mid-2010
A month later than the optimists hoped for but a quarter ahead of what pessimists feared in December  China’s exports recorded their first year-to-year increase in 14 months. The 17.7% growth in exports from December 2008 puts China on track to allowing its currency...How to buy into emerging market stocks now
Here’s the dilemma. Long-term emerging market stocks are going to beat stocks from the world’s developed economies like a drum. Everything right now points in that direction. Growth rates: For example, the United States looks likely to grow by 2% to 3% annually over...What happens when China cuts its stimulus?
 China too. It’s not just the United Kingdom and the United States where turning off the stimulus cash faucet has the potential to take a bite out of the economy and financial markets in 2010.  In China the big question is What will happen to consumer spending on...Could this mean less volatility for China's financial markets?
Holy Karl Marx, Batman. China is set to introduce futures contracts on its stock market indexes. Perhaps in March right after the Communist Party’s annual congress, Bloomberg reports. China’s Financial Futures Exchange has been running mock trading in the contracts...It's getting close to buy on the dip time in China
China’s stock market correction has spread from financials and real estate to the rest of the market. For almost two months now China’s banking regulators have stuck to their message: China’s big banks may need to raise more capital and put aside more money for...China's banks copy Citigroup in hiding bad loans off their balance sheets
Banks are moving loans off their balance sheets in order to dress up their accounts for worried regulators. Only this time it isn’t Citigroup (C) or State Street (SST) that’s involved but China’s big banks. In November China’s banks packaged and then sold $18.6...China's economy takes another step toward business as usual–and that's good news for the rest of the world
China moved another step toward normal, according to economic data for November released on December 11. Not close enough to normal, yet, for China to remove the dollar peg that has kept the renminbi at 6.8 to the dollar since July 2008. But the statistics show that...When will China's currency start to climb against the dollar?
When will China stop pegging its currency to the U.S. dollar and let the renminbi appreciate? Â The futures market now projects a 2.6% gain for the renminbi within the next twelve months. Some economists think that figure is low. Deutsche Bank chief China economist Ma...So how many bad loans have China's banks made? And when will the bill come due?
There’s no free lunch. Not even for China. The Beijing government has used its state-controlled banking system to provide much of the financial stimulus that has powered China to 8.9% economic growth in the third quarter of 2009. And now the bill is coming due....Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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