The dollar isn’t behaving like it’s supposed to–selling dollar ETF and buying yen ETF
The U.S. dollar has traditionally been seen as a safe haven asset. When turmoil grips the financial markets, money usually flows into dollar-denominated assets. Even when the United States is the source of that turmoil–as it is now thanks to the global trade war...
Could the stock correction be all about Japan? And close to an end?
Okay, the correction in the NASDAQ and the near correction in the Standard & Poor’s 500 isn’t all about Japan. U.S. stock valuations are stretched. Air is coming out of the AI bubble. The U.S. economy is slowing But to me those factors don’t explain the stunning...
China cuts interest rates in a new attempt to jump start economy
On Monday, July 22, the People’s Bank of China lowered its benchmark lending rates and an important short-term policy rate. The precise timing was a surprise although leaders at the recently concluded third plenum had flagged continuing problems in the real estate...
Buy the dollar! After Italy’s triumph leading this week’s G7, the country will cause another euro crisis
This is Giorgia Meloni’s time in the sun. I hope she enjoys it. The pasta is about to hit the fan. Which will lead the dollar to rally against the euro. Some more. And which gives me Step #6 in my Special Report: 7 Steps to Take Now to Protect Your Portfolio While You...
And now what in the Middle East? And for global financial markets?
After Israel and its allies (with the help of some Arab states that don’t want to see a wider Middle East war and who aren’t thrilled with the growing power of Iran and its proxies) succeeded in shooting down almost all of the drones (170), ballistic missiles (120),...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week Watch the Yuan
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-thirtieth YouTube video: Trend of the Week Watch the Yuan This week’s Trend of the Week: Watch the Yuan. China controls one of the two largest treasury portfolios in the world, and the strength of the yuan affects treasuries...
Gold is back and I like the shiny metal as risk of a debt ceiling crisis increases–here’s how I’d play gold now
With the Federal Reserve seemingly winding down its cycle of interest rate increases, a stronger dollar is no longer the big currency market story. Gold is. Gold is back. And for at least the next 3 to 6 months. The likely political chaos in Washington over raising...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick Sell UUP
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-twenty-sixth YouTube video: Quick Pick Sell UUP This week’s Quick Pick: Sell UUP–the dollar ETF. I had the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSEARCA: UUP) in my portfolio through 2022 while the dollar was doing...
Trying to walk a fine line on sentiment over the next three months
Here’s my take on market sentiment over the next three months. First, in the very short-run, for the next four weeks of earnings season, it’s hard for me to imagine that investors and traders will sell ahead of one of the biggest surges in year over year...
Watch my new YouTube video: “OPEC and the threat to green energy stocks
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The thirty-second YouTube video “OPEC and the threat to green energy stocks” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. You can see...
Dollar sinks to lowest level in 2 years; gold (finally) bounces
The Dollar Spot Index (DXY) fell by 0.7% today to the lowest level in more than two years on the biggest drop in almost four weeks. The Dollar Index is now down 5.28% for the year and down 12% from its March peak The euro surged 1.2% to $1.2075, the highest level...
Downward momentum in stocks looks stalled–trend depends on news flow and the dollar
Today, Monday, September 28, as of 1:15 p.m. New York time the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 1.60% to trade at 3352.78. Along with Friday’s 1.60% gain in the index, I think that shows the market’s downward momentum stalled for the moment. Only...
Gold hits a record: Now what?
Spot gold hit an all-time high today to close at $1991.40 an ounce. In July gold rose 11%, the most since 2012. And now even investors and traders who never own gold are looking at the metal and say, “Should I buy? Will it rally some more?” In my opinion...
Fed move leaves yen as last safe haven standing
The Japanese yen soared 2% Monday after the Federal Reserve announced that it would cut interest rates and add $700 billion to its balance sheet by buying Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. The dollar was down 0.66% Monday against the DXY Spot Index, a basket...
The market wants to believe today–rallying ahead of the Fed?
As of 2 p.m. New York time U.S. stocks were higher on just about no meaningful news. To me it looks like the market wants to climb in the very near term–testing technical momentum to move to 2950 on the Standard & Poor’s 500 and maybe beyond. The...
Boris Johnson loses working majority mid-speech to Parliament
It was the kind of session that only Parliament can produce: jeering, catcalls, and mid-speech by Prime Minister Boris Johnson the dramatic resignation of a Conservative member of Parliament who got up from his seat and walked over to join his new party the Liberal...Other signs of global economic stress keep coming in
The U.S.-China trade war continues to erode business confidence in Germany. Business confidence in the country, home to Europe’s largest economy, fell to its weakest level in almost seven years as a deepening manufacturing slump put the German economy on the...Market goes to pessimism on trivial Pompeo comments–tells ya something, though
It didn’t take much to end the optimism of the past few days and turn the market at least mildly pessimistic today. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told CNBC this morning that Huawei Technologies isn’t the only Chinese company that poses security risks...
Add Brazil to a growing list of economies in recession or near recession
Brazil’s central bank released a key gauge of economic activity today that signaled that it’s likely Brazil fell into recession in the second quarter. The country’s economy activity index, which is a proxy for gross domestic product, fell 0.13% in the...
People’s Bank signals that yuan devaluation will be orderly
U.S. stocks rallied strongly today, Thursday, August 8, after the People’s Bank of China set its daily reference rate for its currency at 7.0039 to the dollar. That was stronger than the 7.0156 yuan to the dollar overnight estimate of 21 analysts and trader...
No let up in President Trump’s pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates faster
More tweets today from President Donald Trump in his campaign to pressure the Federal Reserve into more aggressive cuts to interest rates. “Incompetence is a terrible thing to watch, especially when things could be taken care of sooo easily. We will WIN anyway,” the...
People’s Bank signals its goal of an orderly retreat in China’s yuan, and markets recover–somewhat
Stocks rallied today on signs that the People’s Bank intends to deliver an orderly drop in China’s currency. This morning the yuan traded slightly above the critical 7 yuan to the dollar currency band. And the bank said it will sell $4.2 billion in yuan...
Portfolio strategies for a changing market: What went up today when everything went down
For the last few weeks I’ve been working to shift gears in my online portfolios in anticipation of a tougher market after the Federal Reserve meeting (and a likely additional interest rate cut) on September 18. I’ve added Treasury ETFs–the Vanguard...
Financial markets fear what comes next in U.S.-China trade war
It would be unwise to assume that today’s retaliation by China is the last tit for tat in the U.S.-China war. What “reasonable” fears are making rounds today? That the Chinese decision to let the yuan break the 7-yuan-to-the-dollar barrier...
China strikes back
We suspend our usual programming to cover the developing financial market and likely economic reaction to China’s decision to let the yuan tumble in retaliation to President Donald Trump’s decision last week to place a 10% tariff on an additional $300...
Materials stocks up today even as U.S.-China trade fears linger
I think the strong move in commodities stocks today has more to do with continued weakness in the U.S. dollar than it does with any renewed faith in growth in the global economy. After all the U.S.-China trade war doesn’t look any more settled today than it did...
Buying this yen ETF for Jubak Picks to hedge market risk–and maybe gain 5% or so
Earlier today in a post “One consequence of change in Fed policy likely to be a weaker dollar” I noted that a number of Wall Street and big international banks have forecast a drop in the dollar as a result of the Fed’s decision to back off on...
One consequence of the change in Fed policy likely to be a weaker dollar
A number of Wall Street and big international banks are forecasting a drop in the dollar as a result of the Fed’s decision to back off on raising interest rates in 2019. Morgan Stanley, for example, says that the dollar has peaked and has forecast the yen...
Even as deal is struck to end shutdown, gold soars
Gold hit a seven month high on Friday, gaining more than 1%. Spot gold briefly broke above $1300 an ounce. Gold futures climbed 1.5% to $1,298.30 an ounce. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) climbed 1.46% to $122.86 on volume 10% above the daily average. The 52-week high...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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