Please watch my new YouTube video: No Powell Put…Yet
Today’s Video: No Powell Put…Yet. The market is betting on the Fed riding to the rescue with rate cuts, but I don’t see it happening anytime soon. The Fed’s job is controlling inflation and employment—not propping up stocks. Even with recent market jitters, the...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Why the Fed is almost certain to be wrong
Today’s video is Why the Fed is Almost Certain to be Wrong. Blame it in lags. Lags make economic forecasting really difficult at the best of times. How long does it take policies like tariffs and tax cuts to actually affect the economy and show up in the data?...
Bad inflation news is worse than expected
The Commerce Department reported this morning that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, that is after stripping out volatile food and energy prices, climbed 2.8% in February from a year earlier. That was a faster pace than in January. On a monthly...
Trump criticizes the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady
That didn’t take long. Wednesday afternoon the Federal Reserve decided to keep its benchmark interest rate steady–no rate cut. Wednesday night President Donald Trump renewed his call for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates as he criticized the central...Buckle those seat belts–it’s going to be a bumpy two weeks
I see the beginning of two weeks of extraordinary volatility. Look what’s on deck. On Tuesday, March 4, President Donald Trump will give his first joint address to Congress–it’s not officially a State of the Union address because newly elected presidents don’t...
Finally some good news on inflation due this week
Economists expect the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure–due Friday–to cool to the slowest pace since June. But while I think markets will cheer, it’s too soon to look for any change from the Federal Reserve on interest rate cuts. That will have...
Please watch my new YouTube video: The Fed is caught between a rock and a hard place
Today’s video: the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. Inflation has been stuck around 2.8% and the Fed would like to get it down to 2%. In January, the Fed paused on interest rates but Wall Street still hopes for two cuts in 2025. The March 19 meeting will...
Market is still looking for 2 rate cuts in 2025, CNBC survey says
We won’t get another update on the probable trajectory of Federal Reserve interest rate policy from the Fed itself until the central bank updates its Dot Plot projections at its March 19 meeting. But meanwhile, we have a survey from CNBC that shows a majority of...
Will there be any clues on the next rate cut from the Fed on Wednesday?
I expect Wednesday’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee to be the big event of the week. Not because the Fed will do anything unexpected on interest rates. It won’t change its benchmark policy rate now at 4.25% to 4.50%. But because the Fed might...
Paul Krugman puts some numbers on the effects of Trump’s tariffs
Assuming that conventional economics still has some validity and that economic history has some predictive value, Paul Krugman, who won his 2008 Nobel-prize in economics for his work on international trading patterns, has put some numbers on the likely effects of the...
Big market reaction on a tiny move in CPI inflation
As of noon New York time today, January 15, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was ahead 1.30%. The NASDAQ Composite and the small-cap Russell 2000 were both up 1.80% on the session. Today’s big moves come on relatively minor changes in inflation trends in this...
Fed signals fewer cuts, higher interest rates, higher inflation in 2025
In Wednesday’s quarterly update to its projections on economic growth, inflation, and interested rates in its Dot Plot survey of sentiment, Fed officials and governors forecast fewer rate cuts for next year than in their September projections, and they saw the fight...
It’s CPI inflation time again this week
All eyes will be on the Consumer Price Index inflation report for November due out on the morning of Wednesday, December 11. It’s the last big inflation data dump before the Federal Reserve meets on December 18. In October, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban...
It’s jobs report Friday again this week
I expect the Big Event of the week to be Friday morning’s report of the November jobs numbers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 2% last week. The Nasdaq Composite and the Standard & Poor’s 500 rose more than 1%. Both the S&P 500...
More evidence that the inflation rate is stuck
Yesterday, Wednesday, November 27, the report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, had continued the stall that began in May. In October the headline number...
Watch my new YouTube video: Fed one and done in December?
Today’s video is Fed One and Done in December? On November 13, the CPI inflation numbers showed inflation ticking up slightly, but the market still believes the Fed will cut rates again in December. On November 13, the CME FedWatch tool had it at 83% odds...
The Fed faces an impossible task in 2025
There’s no reason to believe that President-elect Donald Trump isn’t serious about pushing three of his biggest policy ideas through in the first 100 days of his administration in 2025. Susie Wiles, his pick for White House chief of staff, has said, “Get it done in...
CPI inflation creeps higher in October; market still forecasts December interest rate cut
Inflation ticked up slightly on an annual basis in October, the latest evidence that further reductions in inflation are getting hard to achieve. The Consumer Price Index climbed 2.6% from a year earlier, up from September’s 2.4% annual rate, the Bureau of Labor...
Wall Street and the bond market see fewer interest rate cuts in 2025 from the Fed
Look out for more volatility in the bond market. BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase, and TCW Group have all warned that the bumpy ride is likely far from over. But also expect that the big overall trend for 2024 of rising bond prices and falling yields on hopes for aggressive...
Fed sticks with a 25 basis point interest rate cut; but uncertainty seems to be a rising worry
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates on Thursday by a quarter of a percentage point. The cut was the second this year, following on a larger than usual 50 basis point cut in September. The size of this cut was expected by the financial markets. Wall Street is...
It’s a BIG week for BIG TECH earnings reports
Expect Big Tech earnings reports and more earnings reports this week.. All capped on Friday with the October jobs report, the last one before the November 7 meeting of the Federal Reserve on interest rates. (Which means that the Fed will be in its blackout period...
Climb in yield on 2-year Treasury says bond market is rethinking rate-cut trajectory
As of Monday, October 21, Two-year Treasury yields have climbed 34 basis points since the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates on September 18 for the first time since 2020. Rising yields “reflect the reduced probability of recession risks,” Steven Zeng, an interest...
Retail sales stronger than expected in September
U.S. retail sales strengthened in September by more than forecast. The U.S. economy continues to show solid growth. And the economic strength continues to say that there’s less need for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a larger-than-usual 50 basis points...
Wait! No soft landing! No more rate cuts! The market freaks out again!
It’s back! Fear that the economy is so strong that the Federal Reserve won’t cut interest rates as sharply or as quickly as expected. In the last few days, following on a surprisingly strong September jobs report, the market has gone from giving 50/50 odds to a second...
Strong September jobs report lowers expectations for 50 basis point cut from the Fed
Odds on a 50 basis point cut from the Federal Reserve at its November 7 meeting plunged to 0% Friday on the CME FedWatch tool after a strong jobs report for September showed a tick down in the unemployment rate. On September 27, the CME FedWatch tool, which calculates...
The Fed cuts by 50 basis points–don’t make too much of the dip in stocks today
The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points Wednesday. The vote for a 50 basis point cut was 11-1 with the only negative vote–for a 25 basis point cut rather than 50–the first dissent in the Jerome Powell era. The Fed’s Dot...
All the drama is about the size of the Fed interest rate cut
I expect the Federal Reserve to cut its benchmark interest rate at the Wednesday, September 18, meting of its Open Market Committee. It will be the first in a series of cuts that is likely to include 3 cuts in 2024 (at the September, November and December Fed...
Jobs number weak enough to raise fears for the economy but not weak enough to cement 50 basis point cut on September 18
Today’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was the worst of both worlds. The increase in jobs of just 142,000 in August, coupled with downward revisions from June and July was enough to raise fears that the economy is stalling. And that the Federal...
Big downward revision in jobs locks in September interest rate cut by the Fed, puts November cut in play
Monthly employment reports overstated the number of job created by the U.S. economy by 818,000 in the 12 months that ended in March 2024, the Labor Department reported on Wednesday, August 21. That revision, part of the annual process that reconciles job reports...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
Every post from Jubak Picks straight to your mailbox. And they're free!