May 22, 2023 @ 7:08 pm | Breaking News |
Last week Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed could hold off on another interest rate increase at its June 14 meeting. That comment wz one reason that the CME FedWath tool showed the odds of no increase at the meeting jumping to 82.6% on Friday, May...
May 10, 2023 @ 11:01 pm | Breaking News |
CPI inflation ticked lower in April with the all-items (headline) inflation rate nudging down to a year-over-year 4.9%. The core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, also slipped lower to a year-over-year 5.5% from a 5.6% rate in March. On a month-to-month...
May 9, 2023 @ 10:50 pm | Breaking News |
There’s always the question of exactly how smart the smart money is, but I find these moves from big Wall Street names interesting as I look for any signs of cracks in the current consensus looking for a quick pivot to interest rate cuts from the Federal...
April 10, 2023 @ 11:16 pm | Breaking News |
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-fifty-eighth YouTube video: Trend of the Week Houston, We Have a Trend Problem Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5...
April 10, 2023 @ 7:38 pm | Breaking News |
I expect a disconcerting CPI inflation report for March on Wednesday, April 12. The headline, all-items inflation rate is expected to drop to an annual rate of 5.2% from 6%, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would be good news for the Federal...
March 21, 2023 @ 7:03 pm | Breaking News |
The CME FedWatch Tool, which calculates the odds of a Fed move on interest rates by looking at prices in the Fed Funds Futures market, puts the odds of a 25 basis point interest rate increase from the U.S. central bank tomorrow at 86.4%. That’s up from 73.8% on...
March 19, 2023 @ 11:29 pm | Breaking News |
The Federal Reserve will meet on Wednesday, March 22, to set interest rates. There are three things to watch from that meeting. First, whether the Fed will raise interest rates or not and by 25 basis points, 50 basis points, or not at all. Second, we will get the...
March 16, 2023 @ 7:46 pm | Breaking News |
The European Central Bank raised its benchmark short-term interest rate by another 50 basis points today. The bank said that the European banking system has strong capital and liquidity positions in spite of problems at Credit Suisse that led that bank to borrow $54...
March 15, 2023 @ 11:26 pm | Breaking News |
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-forty-eighth YouTube video: The Fed’s Impending Disaster Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5 Years: Free...
March 14, 2023 @ 7:08 pm | Breaking News |
February core inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index, climbed from January at a faster month-to-month pace, according to this morning’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core inflation, which excludes theoretically more volatile food and...
March 13, 2023 @ 7:26 pm | Breaking News |
Tomorrow’s CPI inflation report for February will show whether the Federal Reserve faces a very difficult task in bringing down inflation without crashing the economy (and/or the banking system) or whether the job is simply impossible. Right now economists are...
March 13, 2023 @ 11:29 am | Breaking News |
The answer is very little and a whole lot. It depends. I’ll explain. Here’s what we know about the sequence of events that led to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, a bank with $209 billion in assets as of the end of December. (As of 2022 year-end,...
March 12, 2023 @ 10:39 pm | Breaking News |
Truthfully no one knows what’s going to happen as a result of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Expect a lot of volatility, though, as the “smart money” tries to talk specific scenarios (watch out for shorts bearing expert commentary) and as the...
March 8, 2023 @ 10:49 pm | Breaking News |
Private payrolls increased by 242,000 in February, according to the ADP National Employment Report. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal had been looking for the economy to add 205,000 jobs in the month. The February increase was well above the revised...
March 8, 2023 @ 10:41 pm | Breaking News |
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-forty-fifth YouTube video: How Long Before Climate Change Forces the Fed to Rethink Inflation? Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy...
March 7, 2023 @ 7:39 pm | Breaking News |
As the day wore on, the stock market decided that it liked Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Senate testimony less and less. The Standard & Poor’s 500 was down just 0.72% at 11 a.m. New York time. The index closed down 1.53% for the day. The Dow...
March 1, 2023 @ 10:33 pm | Breaking News |
It’s not like we don’t know that these two Federal Reserve presidents favor higher interest rates for longer. But still hearing them say it did put a crinkle in stock prices today. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic called for...
February 22, 2023 @ 7:56 pm | Breaking News |
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s February 1 meeting show a central bank anticipating Federal Reserve further increases in interest rates in order to bring inflation down to the Fed’s 2% inflation target. “Participants observed that a restrictive policy...
February 22, 2023 @ 7:51 pm | Breaking News |
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-fortieth YouTube video: 6% Yes, 8% No. Today’s topic is: 6% Yes, 8% No. I’ve been saying that I think 6% is the peak for interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve this cycle. Inflation is not coming down as fast as...
February 15, 2023 @ 11:31 pm | Breaking News |
U.S. retail sales in January jumped by 3% in January from December, the Commerce Department reported today, February 15. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a 2% increase. Retail sales had dropped in December and November. Together with the strong job gains...
February 14, 2023 @ 4:34 pm | Breaking News |
Stocks didn’t move much today after the Consumer Price Index for January showed enough inflation strength to bring Federal Reserve officials out in force to talk about a potential need to raise interest rates above current financial market expectations. But...
February 14, 2023 @ 4:30 pm | Breaking News |
You might even think they knew what was coming. (Which of course the Federal Reserve does.) The pixels weren’t even dry on this morning’s CPI inflation report–6.4% year over year, a 10 basis point drop from December, but a 0.5% month-to-month...
February 14, 2023 @ 4:27 pm | Breaking News |
If you remember your college (or high school if you were precocious) calculus, what we’re worrying about now isn’t the rate of inflation, or even the change in the rate of inflation, but the change in the change of the rate of inflation. Or, in other...
February 13, 2023 @ 12:47 pm | Breaking News |
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-thirty-sixth YouTube video: 6% Is Coming This week’s Trend of the Week is: 6% is Coming. This song lyric keeps playing in my head: “They laughed at Christopher Columbus when he said the world was round.” I’ve...
February 8, 2023 @ 10:15 pm | Breaking News |
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-thirty-fourth YouTube video: Why March 22 Is the Next Big Date Today’s topic is: Why March 22 Is the Next Big Date. March 22 is the date of the Fed’s next meeting. And it’s the first time we’ll get projections...
February 7, 2023 @ 7:04 pm | Breaking News |
On the one hand, stock markets heard Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterate his comments of last week that “disinflation” had become visible. (Disinflation is a slowing in the inflation rate.) At the close today the Standard & Poor’s 500...
February 6, 2023 @ 7:25 pm | Breaking News |
Do the huge January job gains mean that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to a higher peak? That was the worry today and it was enough to send the Standard & Poor’s 500 0.61% lower at the close and to knock a solid 1% off the NASDAQ Composite....
February 1, 2023 @ 10:44 pm | Breaking News |
The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates Wednesday by 25 basis points, as expected. That brings the Fed’s benchmark interest rate to a range of 4.50% to 4.75%, the highest level since October 2007. After a pullback on the news and the Fed’s...
February 1, 2023 @ 10:40 pm | Breaking News |
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-thirty-first YouTube video: Now It’s May for the Fed’s Pause Today’s topic is: Now It’s May for the Fed’s Pause. There wasn’t a lot of suspense about today’s Fed meeting. The CME FedWatch...
January 31, 2023 @ 10:33 pm | Breaking News |
Here’s what I expect on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee will announce a 25 basis-point interest rate increase. In his post-meeting press conference Fed chair Jerome Powell will try to talk the financial markets out of their...