Economists project that the rate at which inflation is falling will slow–does the Fed care?
The pace of improvement in the U.S. inflation rate is set to slow in the coming year. According to the economists surveyed by Bloomberg in its latest monthly outing, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index-—-the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure...
Nothing new in Fed’s November 1 minutes: Careful on rates
Federal Reserve officials at their November 1 meeting were agreed on a strategy to “proceed carefully” on future interest-rate moves and base any further tightening on progress toward their inflation goal. “All participants agreed that the committee was in a position...
Will Tuesday’s rally continue? 3 things I’m watching
One day fluke? The next step in an end of year Santa Claus rally? Huge bear market trap? The beginning of the next big Bull market? Tough questions to answer but important for figuring out an investment strategy for NOW. So here are three things that I’ll be...
Want to know where this rally is headed? Watch Tuesday’s CPI inflation report
I expect Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index report for October to be critical in determining whether the Christmas rally narrative can be sustained. Right now, short-term, stocks look like they want to move higher. That trend is built on a narrative that says, the...
Are financial markets getting interest rates wrong again?
The financial markets continue to swing from extreme to extreme in sentiment. The markets were wrong at the beginning of last week. It’s likely the markets are wrong again. Last week before a weaker jobs number for October and a slightly smaller than expected...
All it took was a weak jobs report and stocks are off to the races
The U.S. economy added “only” 150,000 jobs in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced this morning, November 3. Economists had projected that the economy would add 180,000 jobs for the month. The unemployment rate climbed slightly to 3.9% from...
Federal Reserve holds rates steady as expected, so why did 10-year yields fall 18 basis points?
Certainly, it wasn’t any surprise that at today’s meeting the Federal Reserve decided to keep its policy rate steady at 5.25% to 5.50%. Going into the meeting the CME FedWatch tool put the odds of the Fed standing pat on rates at close to 100%. So why then...
The “other” big interest rate news tomorrow: How big will the Treasury’s bond auctions be?
Yeah, yeah, yeah. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday–the market currently expects no change to policy interest rates. But I’d argue that the bigger news on internet rates for the day will come when the Treasury...
PCE, the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, comes in unexpectedly hot in September
The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, accelerated to a four-month high in September. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% in September...
At 4.9%, third quarter GDP growth is even hotter than feared
The U.S. economy grew by an annual rate of 4.9% in the third quarter, the strongest pace since 2021 and twice the pace of growth in th second quarter. Before the report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, economists surveyed by Bloomberg were expecting annual growth...
Thursday GDP report expected to show a too “hot” economy
The expected strong GDP growth report for the third quarter to be released on Thursday will send the bond market wild again. The U. S. economy, economists project, grew at the fastest rate in nearly two years in the third quarter. The actual figures from the Bureau of...
Just enough in today’s CPI inflation report to keep one more rate increase for 2023 on the table
Today’s Consumer Price Index report on inflation had just enough bad news on inflation to keep one more interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve on the table for 2023. The all items CPI inflation rate rose 0.4% in September from August. That was slightly...
Good news for inflation, interest rates, the Fed in today’s ADP jobs number if we can believe it
Private payrolls rose by just 89,000 jobs in September, according to figures published today by the ADP Research Institute. That’s the fewest jobs added in a month since the start of 2021. Private payrolls climbed 180,000 in August. The results trailed all...
The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped another 13 basis points today, October 3
Where did the slow-moving, deep and placid Treasury market go? The yield on the 10-year benchmark Treasury–you know the one used to set the interest rate on things like mortgages–moved up another 13 basis points today, October 3, to 4.80%. That’s a...
Low inflation in Fed’s favorite indicator says No interest rate increase at November 1 meeting
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index (PCE), rose at the slowest monthly pace in August since late 2020. The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out food and energy prices,...
No (2023) surprises Fed surprises on 2024
At today’s meeting the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee left the central bank’s policy interest rate at 5.25% to 5.50%. In its Dot Plot forecast the Fed signaled one more interest rate hike for 2023. In its forecast the bank said that rates...
What to watch for in Wednesday’s Dot Plot from the Fed
Here’s my cheat sheet of what to watch for in Wednesday’s Dot Plot revision of the Federal Reserve’s forecasts for the rest of 2023 and 2024. The last revisions before this came at the Fed’s June meeting so there’s reason to think that...
Here’s my preview: CPI inflation report for July due Thursday a.m.
There’s a good chance that the Thursday morning CPI inflation report for July will show a small step backwards in the Fed’s battle against inflation. Here’s the Wall Street consensus as of the end of last week according to FactSet: All-items headline...
Fed bumps interest rates up another 25 basis points, says future increase “depends on the data”
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark short-term interest rate 25 basis points to 5.25% to 5.50% on Wednesday, July 26. The central bank said that further interest rates are likely, but that the timing of any rate increases was contingent on data showing how the...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Remember the Quiet Period
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-ninety-sixth YouTube Video: Remember the Quiet Period Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5 Years: Free download for...
Yesterday’s CPI inflation report created a huge dilemma for the Federal Reserve (and your portfolio)–here’s what to watch
Yesterday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that all-items inflation rose at just a 3% annual rate in June. That was a huge drop from the 4% annual rate reported in May. The inflation numbers immediately prompted Wall Street to, again, declare that the Federal...
Huge surge in ADP jobs for June likely means a big surprise on full June jobs report tomorrow
Earlier this week economists were projecting the official government jobs report due on Friday, that is tomorrow, would show that the U.S. economy added just 200,000 jobs in June. This morning, however, the ADP Research Institute’s survey of private employers...
The July 7 jobs report will be decisive for the Fed on interest rates
I expect the Friday, July 7, jobs report for June to be decisive in the Federal Reserve’s July 26 decision to raise/not-to-raise its benchmark interest rates. The CME FedWatch Tool current calculates the odds of a 25 basis point increase at 86.2%. The Bureau of...
Did a Powell deal with the inflation hawks on a June pause guarantee a a 25 basis point increase in interest rates at the July 26 meeting?
I find that I don’t agree very often with Larry Summers, former Treasury Secretary, about the financial markets. His thinking is just too much “Big Banker” in my opinion. Which doesn’t mean he’s always wrong, however. And recently...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick 2-year Treasuries
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-eighth YouTube Video: Quick Pick 2-year Treasuries Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5 Years: Free download for...
Look for an opportunity to buy Treasuries
Look for an opportunity to buy Treasuries at a short-term peak in yields. With a debt filing extension in effect and default off the table, the U.S. Treasury can now turn to the task of rebuilding its cash buffer. That means selling lots of Treasury bills, notes, and...
It’s not over until it’s over: More Fed officials talk about more interest rate increases
Last week Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed could hold off on another interest rate increase at its June 14 meeting. That comment wz one reason that the CME FedWath tool showed the odds of no increase at the meeting jumping to 82.6% on Friday, May...
April CPI inflation report doesn’t settle anything about Fed rates or rate cuts
CPI inflation ticked lower in April with the all-items (headline) inflation rate nudging down to a year-over-year 4.9%. The core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, also slipped lower to a year-over-year 5.5% from a 5.6% rate in March. On a month-to-month...
“Smart” money begins to question the speed of Fed interest rate cuts
There’s always the question of exactly how smart the smart money is, but I find these moves from big Wall Street names interesting as I look for any signs of cracks in the current consensus looking for a quick pivot to interest rate cuts from the Federal...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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