Friday’’s jobs report expected to show pick up in hiring
It’s jobs week. On Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its labor market report for May. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect that the unemployment rate will hold steady at 4.3% and that the economy generated 89,000. That figure would be higher than...
The Fed looks to be planning for slowly growing inflation–as the only way out of a fiscal disaster
Watch what they do and not what the say is always good advice for investors trying to figure out what’s going on in the financial markets. Sure, the Federal Reserve has said that it has a target of no more than 2% inflation. And Jerome Powell & Co. have professed...
And now bad news is good news? For a day
The U.S. bond market rallied from its deepest selloff in 17 months as traders moved away from a belief that the Federal Reserve would seek to head off an increase in inflation by raising interest rates. Today’s thinking is that the Iran war will produce an economic...
No interest rate move from the Fed today, but there was news
As expected, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee left its benchmark short-term interest rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. But that doesn’t mean there wasn’t news from its Dot Plot projections for future GDP growth inflation, and interest rates. First, the Fed...
U.S. economy weaker than initially reported in fourth quarter of 2025
The U.S. economy was in worse shape in the weeks before the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran than earlier government estimates had suggested, according to two closely watched economic benchmarks released Friday. Growth was slower than initially...
Court rules for Federal Reserve in subpoena case
U.S. District Judge James E. Boasberg blocked the Justice Department’s move to subpoena Federal Reserve records in its inquiry into central bank chief Jerome H. Powell and his testimony regarding the Fed’s renovations of its headquarters. The judge quashed a pair of...
The financial markets shrug at the newest attack on the Federal Reserve
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond soared 2 basis points to 4.18% Monday in response to news that Justice Department is conducting a criminal investigation into Fed chair Jerome Powell over his Congressional testimony on the Fed’s building project. Yep,...
Fed cuts interest rates again at Wednesday’s meeting but reveals no consensus on 2026
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point Wednesday. But revealed a huge disagreement on the course for 2026. The decision cut interest rates for a third meeting in a row, moving rates to a new range of 3.5% to 3.75%. It marked the...
The interest rate cut on Wednesday is actually the least important news from the Federal Reserve in the coming week
In the coming week I expect that speculation about future rate cuts and who will replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair rather than the actual rate cut itself will generate the most interest among investors and traders. The financial markets have moved back to...
Back to normal? (Whatever that is.) And on to the end of year rally
Today the mood on Wall Street is, to me, astonishingly positive. TheSenate has voted to end the shutdown. The House will follow within days. (Not as much a certainty as the general opinion holds.) And then we’ll ge back to business as usual with the Federal Reserve,...
Here are the stock market movers for the week ahead
Expect something macro and something micro. The macro? The September Jobs Report will be released on Friday morning before the financial markets open. . Economists expect a weak tally of 50,000 job additions and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.3%. With...
I expect BIG DRAMA behind the scenes at today’s Fed meeting
I expect big drama and suspense from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, September 17. Oh, not from the Fed’s decision on interest rates. The Fed Funds Futures market is pricing in a 96% chance that the Fed’s Open Market Committee will cut the benchmark interest rate by...
Powell in Jackson Hole tells the financial markets what they wanted to hear
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell carefully opened the door to an interest-rate cut in September, pointing to rising risks for the labor market even as worries over inflation remain. “The stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows us...
Wait, you mean there might not be a September interest rate cut?
Ahead of Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s Friday speech at the central bankers’ conclave in Jackson Hole, four (and counting) Fed governors spoke up to cast doubt on the inevitability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the Fed’s September 17 meeting. Odds...
Rate cut hopes return to the market
Hope of multiple unrest rate cuts in 2025 is back. Today, June 24, money markets were again pricing in two Fed reductions by the end of the year and giving a 25% chance to a third cut. The reason for the return of rate cut optimism? A second Federal Reserve official,...
Good PCE inflation report; but tariff, spending uncertainty postpones any Fed rate cut
The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the inflation measure favored by the Federal Reserve, posted a lower-than-expected increase in April, rising 2.1% from year-ago levels. Economists had forecast that the PCE index would rise 2.2%. The core PCE, the...
Traders cut their bets on 2025 interest rate cuts to 3 from 4 ahead of Wednesday Fed meeting
Traders are betting on a slower pace of interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2025. But they are raising their bets on more aggressive cuts in 2026. Just a day ahead of the central bank’s interest rate decision, money markets have moved to price in three...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Where’s the systemic risk this time?
Today’s Hot Money Move is Where’s the Systemic Risk This Time? I’m watching the banking sector for signs of a liquidity crunch-—specifically, the growing pile of “stranded loans” from private equity buyouts. Banks lent billions for these deals but...
Please watch my new YouTube video: No Powell Put…Yet
Today’s Video: No Powell Put…Yet. The market is betting on the Fed riding to the rescue with rate cuts, but I don’t see it happening anytime soon. The Fed’s job is controlling inflation and employment—not propping up stocks. Even with recent market jitters, the...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Why the Fed is almost certain to be wrong
Today’s video is Why the Fed is Almost Certain to be Wrong. Blame it in lags. Lags make economic forecasting really difficult at the best of times. How long does it take policies like tariffs and tax cuts to actually affect the economy and show up in the data?...
Bad inflation news is worse than expected
The Commerce Department reported this morning that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, that is after stripping out volatile food and energy prices, climbed 2.8% in February from a year earlier. That was a faster pace than in January. On a monthly...
Trump criticizes the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady
That didn’t take long. Wednesday afternoon the Federal Reserve decided to keep its benchmark interest rate steady–no rate cut. Wednesday night President Donald Trump renewed his call for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates as he criticized the central...Buckle those seat belts–it’s going to be a bumpy two weeks
I see the beginning of two weeks of extraordinary volatility. Look what’s on deck. On Tuesday, March 4, President Donald Trump will give his first joint address to Congress–it’s not officially a State of the Union address because newly elected presidents don’t...
Finally some good news on inflation due this week
Economists expect the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure–due Friday–to cool to the slowest pace since June. But while I think markets will cheer, it’s too soon to look for any change from the Federal Reserve on interest rate cuts. That will have...
Please watch my new YouTube video: The Fed is caught between a rock and a hard place
Today’s video: the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. Inflation has been stuck around 2.8% and the Fed would like to get it down to 2%. In January, the Fed paused on interest rates but Wall Street still hopes for two cuts in 2025. The March 19 meeting will...
Market is still looking for 2 rate cuts in 2025, CNBC survey says
We won’t get another update on the probable trajectory of Federal Reserve interest rate policy from the Fed itself until the central bank updates its Dot Plot projections at its March 19 meeting. But meanwhile, we have a survey from CNBC that shows a majority of...
Will there be any clues on the next rate cut from the Fed on Wednesday?
I expect Wednesday’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee to be the big event of the week. Not because the Fed will do anything unexpected on interest rates. It won’t change its benchmark policy rate now at 4.25% to 4.50%. But because the Fed might...
Paul Krugman puts some numbers on the effects of Trump’s tariffs
Assuming that conventional economics still has some validity and that economic history has some predictive value, Paul Krugman, who won his 2008 Nobel-prize in economics for his work on international trading patterns, has put some numbers on the likely effects of the...
Big market reaction on a tiny move in CPI inflation
As of noon New York time today, January 15, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was ahead 1.30%. The NASDAQ Composite and the small-cap Russell 2000 were both up 1.80% on the session. Today’s big moves come on relatively minor changes in inflation trends in this...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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