This week I expect surface quiet but important movement in the lower depths of the financial markets.
The week ahead lacks in obvious market-moving events and reports. There’s a smattering of earnings with Disney (DIS) on May 7 and Toyota Motor (TM) on May 8. But nothing from the likes of Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT).
A few speeches from Federal Reserve officials–Fed governors Lisa Cook on May 8 and Michelle Bowman on May 10. But no Fed meeting. No testimony from Fed chair Jerome Powell.
But deep in the workings of the bond market, this will be a big week.
The Treasury will auction $112 billion in Treasury paper to refund $102 billion in notes set to mature on November 15. (Plus an additional $9 billion in new funding.)
The auctions include Tuesday, November 7, $48 billion in 3-year notes; on Wednesday, November 8, $40 billion in 10-year notes, and on Thursday, November 9, $24 billion in 30-year bonds.
Will the bond market be willing to buy all that paper from the Treasury without demanding higher yields? Bond prices rose and yields fell in the last two days of the past week. Which helped stocks to rally.
The auction of $112 billion in Treasuries this week will be a challenge to that trend. The 10-year Treasury climbed in price and the yield fell 8 basis points on Friday, May 3, to 4.51%.
