May 10, 2023 @ 11:01 pm | Breaking News |
CPI inflation ticked lower in April with the all-items (headline) inflation rate nudging down to a year-over-year 4.9%. The core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, also slipped lower to a year-over-year 5.5% from a 5.6% rate in March. On a month-to-month...
May 9, 2023 @ 10:46 pm | Breaking News |
Tomorrow, May 10, brings the key CPI inflation report for April. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are projecting that headline inflation will rise at a 5% year-over-year rate. That would match the 5% headline rate for the Consumer Price Index in March. The headline...
April 20, 2023 @ 10:53 pm | Breaking News, Jubak Picks Portfolio, NEM |
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-sixty-third YouTube video: Quick Pick Newmont Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5 Years: Free download for...
April 12, 2023 @ 11:18 pm | Breaking News |
All items inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index rose by just 0.1% in March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. That is a big drop from the 0.4% increase in February. The year-over-year all-items inflation rate fell to 5.0% in March from 6% in...
April 10, 2023 @ 11:16 pm | Breaking News |
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-fifty-eighth YouTube video: Trend of the Week Houston, We Have a Trend Problem Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5...
April 10, 2023 @ 7:38 pm | Breaking News |
I expect a disconcerting CPI inflation report for March on Wednesday, April 12. The headline, all-items inflation rate is expected to drop to an annual rate of 5.2% from 6%, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would be good news for the Federal...
March 28, 2023 @ 7:41 pm | Breaking News |
Now it’s not just the Cleveland Fed’s NowCast that’s pointing at problems in Friday’s PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) index inflation report. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project that the core PCE index–that is excluding food...
March 16, 2023 @ 7:46 pm | Breaking News |
The European Central Bank raised its benchmark short-term interest rate by another 50 basis points today. The bank said that the European banking system has strong capital and liquidity positions in spite of problems at Credit Suisse that led that bank to borrow $54...
March 15, 2023 @ 11:26 pm | Breaking News |
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-forty-eighth YouTube video: The Fed’s Impending Disaster Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5 Years: Free...
February 22, 2023 @ 7:56 pm | Breaking News |
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s February 1 meeting show a central bank anticipating Federal Reserve further increases in interest rates in order to bring inflation down to the Fed’s 2% inflation target. “Participants observed that a restrictive policy...
February 22, 2023 @ 7:51 pm | Breaking News |
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-fortieth YouTube video: 6% Yes, 8% No. Today’s topic is: 6% Yes, 8% No. I’ve been saying that I think 6% is the peak for interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve this cycle. Inflation is not coming down as fast as...
February 14, 2023 @ 4:30 pm | Breaking News |
You might even think they knew what was coming. (Which of course the Federal Reserve does.) The pixels weren’t even dry on this morning’s CPI inflation report–6.4% year over year, a 10 basis point drop from December, but a 0.5% month-to-month...
February 14, 2023 @ 4:27 pm | Breaking News |
If you remember your college (or high school if you were precocious) calculus, what we’re worrying about now isn’t the rate of inflation, or even the change in the rate of inflation, but the change in the change of the rate of inflation. Or, in other...
February 13, 2023 @ 12:01 pm | Breaking News |
The consensus is that the headline all-in year-over-year inflation rate will come in at 6.2% for January when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the numbers before the New York market open tomorrow February 14. That would be down from an annual 6.5% rate in...
February 7, 2023 @ 7:04 pm | Breaking News |
On the one hand, stock markets heard Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterate his comments of last week that “disinflation” had become visible. (Disinflation is a slowing in the inflation rate.) At the close today the Standard & Poor’s 500...
January 31, 2023 @ 10:33 pm | Breaking News |
Here’s what I expect on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee will announce a 25 basis-point interest rate increase. In his post-meeting press conference Fed chair Jerome Powell will try to talk the financial markets out of their...
January 12, 2023 @ 7:52 pm | Breaking News |
Inflation, measured by the headline CPI (Consumer Price Index) fell 0.1% in December versus November. That brought the annual headline inflation rate to 6.5%. That was exactly what a consensus of economists was looking for. The core DPI, which strips out more volatile...
January 2, 2023 @ 9:53 pm | Breaking News |
It’s deja vu all over again as New York stock markets reopen for trading tomorrow. We ended 2022 waiting for the monthly jobs report from the Labor Department to tell us when slower job growth would signal the potential end to the Federal Reserve’s cycle...
December 31, 2022 @ 3:52 pm | Breaking News |
The big investing and economic question for 2023 is How hard will it be to push inflation down to something near the Federal Reserve’s 2% target? The answer will determine (at least until rising unemployment gets the Fed to blink in the second half of 2023) how...
December 2, 2022 @ 7:33 pm | Breaking News |
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 263,000 in November, the Labor Department said today. (And the October jobs total was revised upward to a gain of 284,000.) The unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%. Average hourly wages rose 0.6% in November from October. That was the...
November 30, 2022 @ 6:49 pm | Breaking News |
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-eleventh YouTube video: The Fed Is Now On Message–Ask Why Today’s topic: The Fed is Now On Message, Ask Why. Last week I spoke about how confusing the Fed’s messaging had been recently, but this week, everybody has...
November 28, 2022 @ 7:26 pm | Breaking News |
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-ninth YouTube video: Is the Fed Confusing or Just Confused? Today’s topic: Is The Fed Confusing, or Just Confused? First, Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed came out with a very mixed message about the Fed’s...
November 28, 2022 @ 7:17 pm | Breaking News |
Economists surveyed by FactSet forecast that the November jobs report, set for release Friday morning, will show that the economy added 220,000 new jobs in the month. And that the unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.8% from 3.7% in October If that forecast is...
November 9, 2022 @ 7:50 pm | Breaking News |
It’s likely to be days, weeks, months–if we have to wait from a December runoff vote in the Georgia Senate race–before we know who controls what house of Congress and by how many seats. In the meantime, tomorrow, November 10, brings the October CPI...
November 7, 2022 @ 7:31 pm | Breaking News |
Another big macroeconomic report to hang over stocks, depressing volatility. After all, who wants to get out ahead of Thursday’s Consumer Price Index inflation report for October? Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project that CPI headline inflation will slip to...
November 4, 2022 @ 7:08 pm | Breaking News |
Economists were expecting a light October jobs report this morning with projections from economists surveyed by Bloomberg at 195,000. Instead, the Labor Department reported that the economy added 261,000 jobs in October. (And revised the September report up to 315,000...
November 2, 2022 @ 10:21 pm | Breaking News |
At first investors and traders thought they heard the Federal Reserve signal that the central bank was thinking about a pivot to a policy of cutting interest rates. And stocks rallied. But then Fed chair Jerome Powell “clarified” the Fed’s thinking...
November 1, 2022 @ 7:00 pm | Breaking News |
The JOLTS survey from the Department of Labor showed a big jump in job openings in September. Which raised market worries that the Fed will raise interest rates tomorrow, November 2, by a hefty 75 basis points and signal that it is farther away from a pivot toward...
October 14, 2022 @ 7:17 pm | Breaking News |
After climbing 2.60% yesterday, the Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 2.37% today. Same story with the Dow Jones Industrial Average–up 2.83% yesterday, but down 1.34% today. And the NASDAQ Composite–up 2.23% yesterday and down 3.08% today. And the...
October 13, 2022 @ 7:52 pm | Breaking News |
Headline Consumer Price Index inflation rose at an 8.2% annual rate in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning. Month-to-month inflation rose by 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The month-to-month increase was just 0.1% in August. Core...