CPI inflation climbed at 7% year to year in December–stocks barely budge
As of the close in New York on Wednesday, January 12, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 0.28%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average had edged higher by 0.11%; and the NASDAQ Composite had climbed 0.23%. Even though, the Labor Department reported this morning...
Powell says just about nothing and market rallies
The big news out of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s told Congress appearance before the Senate today (President Joe Biden has nominated him for another term as head of the Fed) was that if inflation doesn’t come down, the Fed would more aggressively...
What’s ahead for the stock market (and investors) in 2022? Here’s what to look for to drive the year
Looking ahead at 2022, it’s not too hard to list the forces that will drive the financial markets. Putting those forces together and blocking out a schedule for their effects on the stock market? Well, that’s a lot harder. But let me try. Here’s my...
Watch my new YouTube Video: Why the Fed is bluffing on interest rates
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My eighty-first YouTube video “Why the Fed is bluffing on interest rates” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. Here’s...
CPI inflation ran at 6.8% annual rate in November–exactly what economists had projected so stocks moved higher
Stocks rose today, December 10, as a huge jump in CPI inflation exactly matched economists’ projections. As they say on the basketball court, “No surprise; no foul.” The Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed at a 6.8% annual rate in November....
Market holds reasonably steady ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report expected to show 6.8% annual inflation rate
Tomorrow’s inflation report–the Consumer Price Index (CPI) flavor–has the potential to end the recent uptick in stocks and send prices back down and volatility back up. Right now economists surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting a year over year...
A Biden vote of confidence in Powell at the Fed is a vote of no confidence in the economy
I realize this is very contrarian, but… This morning President Joe Biden announced that he will renominate Jerome Powell to another four-year term as chairman of the Federal Reserve. Wall Street sounds like it’s generally happy with the...
Consumer inflation up 6.2% year over year in October for biggest annual jump since 1991
In October the headline Consumer Price Index rose 0.9% from September and 6.2% from October 2020, according to the U.S. Labor Department. The increases exceeded all estimates from economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Higher prices for energy, shelter, food and vehicles...
Fed says it will start taper of asset purchases in November with end to buying by middle of 2022
After today’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee the U.S. central bank said it would start slowing the pace of its monthly $120 billion in asset purchases this month. The slowdown would take place at a rate of $15 billion a month, which...
Projections for Christmas spending by consumers sure make it look like inflation expectations are rising
Consumers’ holiday spending intentions are a tad lower than in 2020, according to the latest survey from the Conference Board. On average, consumers intend to spend $648 on gifts this holiday season, according to the survey. That’s down from $673 in 2020. But it...
Watch my new YouTube video: “Trend of the Week–Hidden Inflation”
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My sixtieth YouTube video “Trend of the Week: Hidden Inflation”” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. You can see it...
If P&G earnings are an accurate indication, the Main Street economy is in trouble
Today, October 19, Procter & Gamble (PG) reported fiscal year first quarter earnings of $1.61 against Wall Street projections of $1.59. (That’s down 1% from the first quarter of the prior fiscal year.) Sales grew to $20.34 billion versus Wall Street...
Price increases are “transitory”? Headline CPI soars at 5.4% rate
Inflation wasn’t so bad in September–as long as you didn’t eat or use any energy. Headline inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% from August and climbed at a 5.4% year over year rate. Core inflation, which excludes increases in the...
There’s an oat shortage–not good for OTLY or GIS; not good for food inflation in general
his year a drought hit oat farmers just in time to shape oat production nearly in half in Canada, the world’s largest oat exporter. In the United States, one of the top consumers of the grain used in everything from oat milk to Cheerios to granola bars, the...
More (verbal) news from the Fed this afternoon than the consensus expected
As expected the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee kept the central bank’s benchmark interest rate at 0% to 0.25% and left its bond buying program on a path to buy $120 billion of Treasuries and mortgage-backed assets a month. Unexpectedly, though,...
Wall Street has started to fret about third-quarter profit warnings
Profit warnings for the third quarter, which ends on September 30 for most companies, have started to worry Wall Street. So far most of the revisions have come from materials producers such as PP Industries (PPG) and Sherwin-Williams (SHW). PP Industries, for example,...
Inflation is moderating–if you want to read today’s numbers that way
This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% in August (on a seasonally adjusted basis.) That comes after a 0.5% increase in July. Year over year the headline CPI rose 5.3% in August. That’s slightly below...
Will we get “inflation volatility” from tomorrow’s CPI report?
Economists expect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to have edged lower in August in tomorrow morning’s report. Expectations are that the Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell in August to a 4.2% year over year rate. The core CPI hit 4.5%...
Click your heels together and repeat, “There is no inflation”
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), which makes chips for everybody and everything, plans to raise prices on its silicon by 10% to 20% in 2022, DigiTimes reported today. The company will raise prices on “mature-technology chips” manufactured on 16...
Stocks decide inflation is in retreat and move higher
The Consumer Price Index climbed 0.5% in July. That was in line with Wall Street expectations. And down from the 0.9% gain in the inflation index reported for June. That was enough to send stock prices higher as investors and traders decided the data supports the...
Today’s trading doesn’t answer big questions posed by Amazon and Caterpillar earnings last week
I’m looking for answers to two big questions that earnings from Amazon (AMZN) and Caterpillar (CAT) left us with last week. In the case of Amazon, where the company reported a slide in revenue growth after a big bump in sales due to everybody ordering everything...
Federal Reserve says it is staying the course, for now
No change. But change coming someday. (Not soon, though.) That was the message from today’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee. The central bank held interest rates steady at 0% to 0.25% and maintained its schedule for purchases of...
Watch my new YouTube video: Inflation is here–listen to Pepsi and Conagra
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My thirty-third YouTube video “Inflation is here–listen to Pepsi and Conagra” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. You...
If China’s growth is slowing, can the U.S. and other economies be far behind?
That’s the worry set off by the announcement last week by the People’s Bank of China that it would cut the reserve requirement for China’s big banks by 50 basis points. While economists had been expecting the move from the People’s Bank, they...
Trying to walk a fine line on sentiment over the next three months
Here’s my take on market sentiment over the next three months. First, in the very short-run, for the next four weeks of earnings season, it’s hard for me to imagine that investors and traders will sell ahead of one of the biggest surges in year over year...
Watch my new YouTube video: “OPEC and the threat to green energy stocks
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The thirty-second YouTube video “OPEC and the threat to green energy stocks” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. You can see...
No surprise: Fed’s preferred inflation measure climbs at 3.9% year over year rate in May
The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure rose 0.4% in May to an increase of 3.9% from May 2020. The core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, climbed at a 3.4% rate from May 2020. That was the highest...
Watch my new YouTube video: “Interest Rate Hikes Are Coming”
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The twenty-eighth YouTube video “Interest Rate Hikes Are Coming” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. You can see it...
Today it’s the Dot Plot and not the Fed’s story that sends prices down
The rhetoric was the same after today’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee: “Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.” The Fed kept its benchmark short-term interest rate at 0% to 0.25% But the Dot Plot...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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