Fed’s Bullard says two 50 basis point increases and a move to 3.5% by end of year are a “good benchmark”
But did he have to say it? The financial market would prefer not to think about inflation all the time. The markets are indeed pretty good at ignoring the inconvenient. But this morning Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said out loud what Wall...
Inflation fell in April but not by as much as Wall Street had hoped
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, fell in April to a year over year rate of 8.3%. That was down from an 8.5% rate in March, raising hopes that the economy had seen the inflation peak. But economists had been projecting a drop to 8.0% in April. Which...
Will Wednesday’s CPI show April peak for inflation?
Normally, a report of 8% year over year inflation wouldn’t be considered good news for the financial markets. But in case you haven’t noticed, these aren’t normal times. Which means a report of 8% year over year inflation in April in the Consumer...
U.S. economy adds 428,000 jobs in April; stock market says, Oh! No!
The U.S. economy aded 428,000 jobs in April, the Labor Department reported today, May 6. That matched the jobs gains in M arch and was above e the 380,000 jobs expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The official unemployment rate remained at 3.6%. Economists...
Headed your way–a flood of numbers on the economy; here’s my preview
Data, data everywhere in the next two days. From inflation to GDP. To begin with the Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to report first quarter U.S. GDP growth on April 28. Economists expect to see that the economy has grown at an annualized rate of just 1.1% in...
Headed your way–a flood of numbers on the economy; here’s my preview
Data, data everywhere in the next two days. From inflation to GDP. To begin with the Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to report first quarter U.S. GDP growth tomorrow, April 28. Economists expect to see that the economy has grown at an annualized rate of just...
Projections of more aggressive Federal Reserve continue to hammer stocks
The financial markets have moved from pricing in 50 basis point increases in the Federal Reserve’s target interest rate at the May 4 and June 15 meetings to considering the possibility that the Fed will increase rates by 75 basis points in June and July. A 25...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Netflix, Inflation, and Demand Destruction”
My one-hundredth-and-twenty-third YouTube video “Netflix, Inflation, and Demand Destruction” went up today. Today I’m covering Netflix’s (NFLX) crash after releasing subscriber numbers showing the loss of 200K subscribers for the quarter and...Even worse inflation news in today’s Producer Price Index–especially on food
The Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks prices at the wholesale level, showed a 2.4% month to month increase in food costs for March from February. the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning. That was the biggest month to month increase in 10 months....
Stocks rally on bad inflation news in the morning and then give it all back (on second thoughts) in the afternoon
As of noon New York time today, April 12, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 0.47% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average had gained 0.34%. The NASDAQ Composite was higher by 0.73% and the NASDAQ 100 had moved up by 0.67%. The small cap Russell 2000 had tacked...
This drought on the Great Plains couldn’t be coming at a worse time for food prices and grain supplies
The Great Plains could see its most significant drought in a decade, Becky Bolinger, assistant state climatologist for Colorado and a research scientist at Colorado State University, wrote in the Washington Post on April 11. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 70%...
The Fed looks to have lost the battle on inflation expectations
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg now say that consumer price index (CPI) inflation will average 5.7% in the final three months of 2022. That’s up from a forecast of 4.5% a month ago. (The March CPI report is due on Tuesday, April 12.) These economists also upped...
Fed March minutes show central bank as hawkish on interest rates as expected/feared
Minutes from the March meeting of the Federal Reserve released Wednesday, April 6, showed that only Russia’s invasion of Ukraine kept the central bank from raising benchmark interest rates by 50 basis points instead the 25 basis-point increase the Fed actually...
Ooof! Yield on 10-year Treasury hits 2.38% at the close today
As of the close today, Tuesday, March 22, Treasuries had sold off steeply raising the yield on the 10-year Treasury to 2.38%, a huge (for the Treasury bond market) 9 basis points. The rout took the yield on the 2-year Treasury to 2.16%. On Friday,March 18, the 2-year...
Airlines climb on oil drop, traffic pickup–now it gets tricky
Oil prices collapsed. And airlines reported a better than expected pick up in traffic. So airline stocks soared with the most stressed operators showing the biggest gains in their shares. Delta Air Lines (DAL) closed up 8.70% on the day. United Airlines (ULA) picked...
Extreme day to day volatility is hiding the stock market’s trends–and 4 ways to put this volatility to use
Consternation isn’t an investment strategy. Although I certainly understand that reaction to current stock market moves. The day to day volatility is that extreme. But if we focus on that volatility and on how confusing this market is, I think we’re in...
Powell tells markets to expect 25 basis point interest rate increase on March 16
Not 0%. But then almost no one expects the Federal Reserve to stand pat on interest rates at its March 16 meeting–even after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Not 50 basis points. Although many on Wall Street project that the Fed will throw its customary caution...
PCE inflation accelerates in January but not enough to spook markets
The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, rose at a year over year 6.1% rate in January. That tops the 5.8% annual rate in December. Economists had been projecting a 6% increase for January. The core PCE...
Hey, remember the Fed! New inflation numbers tomorrow, Friday, morning
I know it’s easy to forget that there’s other market moving news on the horizon (besides what the next day will bring in the Russian invasion of Ukraine) but tomorrow, Friday, February 25, the government will report the Personal Consumption Expenditures...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Russia sanctions and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and-fifth YouTube video “Russia sanctions and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases” went up today. So how will the seemingly imminent...
Next inflation report due Friday and it’s not looking good
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the inflation index that the Federal Reserve uses, is projected at an annual rate of 6% in January, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The core rate, which excludes food and fuels, is forecast to...
Federal Reserve’s January 26 minutes already outdated by inflation, jobs news
Back on January 26–a date so far in the past as to be positively neolithic if judged by changes in financial data–according to minutes of that central bank meeting related today, February 16, Federal Reserve officials concluded that they would start...
CPI inflation comes in hotter than expected at 7.5%
CPI inflation climbed at a 7.5% annual rate in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning. That was above the 7.3% expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg and a big jump from the 7.0% annual rate reported in December. The inflation number just...
Tomorrow’s a big day for inflation and interest rate increases from the Fed
Tomorrow, January 10, before the market open, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce the Consumer Price Index inflation for January. Right now economists surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting an annualized increase of 7.2% in inflation. That would be a significant...
U.S. economy adds 467,000 jobs in January–more than economists had expected and cementing the Fed’s plan to raise interest rates in March
The U.S. economy added 467,000 jobs in January. The official unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4% from 3.9% in December, as more people moved off the sidelines to enter the labor market. Over the past 12 months, the United States has added nearly 7 million jobs....
PCE inflation measure confirms CPI–inflation is hot, hot, hot
Nothing new here in a way. The Personal Consumption Expenditure index, the inflation measure preferred by the Federal Reserve, jumped to an annualized 5.8% rate in December. That confirms the message from the 7% annualized increase in the Consumer Price Index reported...
Even good earnings and guidance, and decent inflation news from P&G can’t push stocks higher today
Procter & Gamble (PG) reported adjusted earnings of $1.66 a share for its fiscal second quarter. Analysts had expected the company to report earnings $1.65 a share. Revenue of $21 billion also came in ahead of Wall Street projections $20.34 billion. Organic sales...
CPI inflation climbed at 7% year to year in December–stocks barely budge
As of the close in New York on Wednesday, January 12, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 0.28%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average had edged higher by 0.11%; and the NASDAQ Composite had climbed 0.23%. Even though, the Labor Department reported this morning...
Powell says just about nothing and market rallies
The big news out of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s told Congress appearance before the Senate today (President Joe Biden has nominated him for another term as head of the Fed) was that if inflation doesn’t come down, the Fed would more aggressively...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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