The oil at sea price buffer is about to end
Paul Krugman points out that oil at sea at the start of the Iran war provided a price buffer. But that buffer is about to run out. Deliveries to Asian markets will end this week; deliveries to Europe will end next week. For his full post go to...
When does the Strait of Hormuz reopen? It’s becoming a critical question for Europe
Europe could face a shortage of energy and fuel as soon as next month without a reopening of the strait of Hormuz, Shell CEO Wael Sawan, said at an energy conference in Houston. Without a return of crude deliveries from the Gulf to global buyers via the crucial...
How tightly is the Strait of Hormuz closed?
Pretty tightly seems to be the answer. Only two vessels not linked to Iran or Russia have made the tun through the strait of Hormuz, according to maritime records, since President Donald Trump said he would “ensure the free flow of energy to the world.” One of those...
What?!–Saturday’s unconditional surrender becomes today’s Iran war is very complete–and then…
The Standard & Poor’s 500 began the day with a 1.5% loss. Brent crude soared to $120 a barrel. The moves were totally reasonable. Investors and traders had feared that the war with Iran would spiral into a more destructive and wider regional war. And recent...
Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to oil traffic
Strait of Hormuz summary from the Washington Post Monday A.M.: “Ships have largely stopped moving through the strait following bombing attacks by Iran and its threats against vessels that defy its directive to stay away. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps...
Now it’s all about the Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s supreme leader warned on February 1 that if his country was attacked by the United States, a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz is within its power. And now that the attack has come? It would be an extreme step that Iran has never taken, but it remains a...
U.S. oil production hits a record, destroying OPEC’s supply cut strategy
The world’s No. 2 oil producer, Saudi Arabia, wants to cut oil production to raise oil prices. And has even actually curtailed production to meet that goal. The world’s No. 3 oil producer, Russia, wants (others mostly) to cut oil production to raise prices. And has...
Will we see a market trend emerge this week from Friday’s big volatility day?
I’m hoping for some clarity this week on the market trend after Friday’s wild day. Friday’s intraday moves summed up the uncertainty about the direction of this market. After the huge surprise on the September jobs number, stocks fell immediately out...
Exxon Mobil guides to huge drop in earnings; just one example of revenue and earnings problems across the sector
On Wednesday, July 5, Exxon Mobil (XOM) told investors that second quarter earnings could drop by nearly 50% from earnings in the second quarter of 2022. On Thursday, July 6, shares of Exxon Mobil closed down 3.73%. Remember, we’re talking about Exxon Mobil...
Russia looks to be cheating on its oil production cuts
The Russian government insists that the country has cut oil output as promised. But all the available numbers day that Russian crude oil is flowing at above levels agreed with OPEC. Of course, it’s hard to tell because Russia has stopped reporting key export...
Overreaction? $4 gas and $100 oil?
Monday oil prices and oil stocks soared on the bullish case that the surprise OPEC+ production cut will push gasoline to $4 a gallon and oil to $100 a barrel. Not everyone buys the bullish case–at least not after a few days of what these analysts call a...
Sunday’s surprise OPEC+ sends oil and oil stocks higher Monday (with slight retreat today)
On Sunday, April 2 OPEC+ announced a surprise oil production cut of more than 1 million barrels a day. The organization had not so long ago promised that it would hold supply steady. Saudi Arabia led the move by pledging its own 500,000 barrel-a-day supply reduction....
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week U.S . Oil Production not Rising as Expected
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-fifth YouTube video. This week’s Trend of the Week: U.S. Oil Production is Not Rising as Expected. Oil prices have averaged $100 per barrel over 2022–a figure that would normally lead oil companies to expand production and...
Just when you thought the Ukraine war couldn’t get worse–it does with huge negative implications for oil prices
On Monday Russia launched “a massive strike (the words of Russian President Vladimir Putin) on civilian infrastructure, including crowded train stations, in Ukraine in retaliation for the explosions Saturday that destroyed a crucial ridge linking...
OPEC+ carries through on yesterday’s leaks and cuts oil production; oil and oil stocks continue rally
Today, Wednesday, October 5, OPEC and its allies, including Russia, approved a two million barrel-a-day cut in oil production. This is the largest cut in production since the onset of the pandemic. Here’s the key paragraph in the OPEC+ statement: “Adjust...
OPEC+ “considers” cutting oil production and oil and oil stocks surge today
All it takes is a report that OPEC+, the group of oil-producing countries that includes Saudi Arabia and Russia, is considering a big cut in production at its meeting this week to send oil and oil stocks off to the races. As of noon New York time, on Monday, U.S....
Sorry Joe, that trip to Saudi Arabia didn’t result in more oil production
I hope that President Joe Biden got a T-shirt on his August trip to Saudi Arabia. You know, one that says “I went to Saudi Arabia and all I got was this lousy T-shirt.” Because the U.S. President sure didn’t get a surge in OPEC oil production. In...
Oil prices now a battle between restored demand from China and more production from OPEC
Oil prices went a strong NOWHERE today, June 1, as the oil market struggled with news of the end of lockdowns in China, which would lead to higher demand, and speculation that OPEC would act to increase production. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate closed up...
EU agrees to partial ban–66%–of Russian oil imports
The European Union has finally found a way to agree on a partial ban on oil imports from Russia. The group has agreed to an immediate ban on imports arriving by sea. That covers about two-thirds of Russian imports. To get Hungary’s vote for the partial ban, the...
Natural gas prices soar–no summer slump in prices this year thanks to war in Ukraine
Normally at this time of year natural gas prices retreat and companies actually stash natural gas in storage for use during hurricane outages in the fall and winter heating season. Not this year, however. Today natural gas prices in the U.S. hit a new 18-year high. At...
Another round of higher oil prices headed our way
Today, April 21, reports from a number of different sources are pointing to lower oil production–which will mean higher oil prices. Even from current levels. And oil prices are significantly higher in the past three weeks. At 3:00 p.m. New York time today U.S....
Oil tumbles again–I think the selling is an over-reaction
Today, April 6, oil fell to the lowest since mid-March today. U.S.benchmark West Texas Intermediate closed below $97 a barrel at $96.23 (down 4.98%) for May delivery. International benchmark Brent lost 4.63% to close at $101.07 a barrel. The news driving the selloff:...
Please Watch my YouTube video: Trend of the Week: Don’t sell those oil stocks yet
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and sixteen YouTube video “Don’t Sell Your Oil Stocks Yet” went up today. Don’t sell those oil stocks yet! Back at the beginning...
Oil is up, stocks (outside energy) are down–how long will this anti-correlation last?
Oil rallied again today with U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate up 4.79% on the day to $114.79 a barrel and international benchmark Brent up 5.12% to $121.39 a barrel. So, naturally, oil and gas equities stocks are up today. And the broader market is down. What...
Airlines climb on oil drop, traffic pickup–now it gets tricky
Oil prices collapsed. And airlines reported a better than expected pick up in traffic. So airline stocks soared with the most stressed operators showing the biggest gains in their shares. Delta Air Lines (DAL) closed up 8.70% on the day. United Airlines (ULA) picked...
U.S. to ban Russian oil and natural gas–Brent hits $131 a barrel, WTI $127
The United States will ban imports of oil and natural gas from Russia, President Biden announced Tuesday. I’ve tried to pin down the exact timing and implementation of the ban (I don’t see these details in the executive order as released by the White...
Airline stocks take another whack on fears that higher jet fuel prices will require many to sell stock to raise capital
As far as I’ve been able to discover, it was a research note from Wolfe Research that began the negative “rethink.” Wolfe forecast that the airlines including United Airlines (UAL) and American Airlines (AAL) were burning cash so fast because of the...
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the first in the next generation of energy wars
Oil and other fossil fuels aren’t going to go quietly. And it’s extremely unlikely that the countries whose global power is predicated on oil are going to give up that power easily either. From this viewpoint, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is the first...
Oil moves toward $95 a barrel on rising Ukraine war fears
International benchmark Brent crude jumped as much as 4.7% to $95 a barrel for the first time since 2014. Brent was up 23.68% and trading at $94.77 at 3 p.m. New York time Friday. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate, which normally trades below Brent in price, was...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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