Show me” oil market still getting no evidence of rebalance of supply/demand
Yesterday the American Petroleum Institute reported a surprise increase in U.S. crude oil inventories with a build of 6.55 million barrels for the week ending January 18. Oil analysts had expected a small draw down in crude oil inventories of 42,000 barrels. Today the...
Markets worry about everything this morning–especially bank and energy stocks
I dare you to find something global financial markets aren’t worried about. And, moreover, many of the worries are re-enforcing each other today. So, for example, we’ve got U.S. Trade Representative Robert E. Lighthizer, saying on Sunday TV the the 90 day...
OPEC cuts production by more than expected–but markets are increasingly less impressed as the day advances
To the surprise of many, OPEC & Friends–what’s known as OPEC+–agreed to cut production by 1.2 million barrels a day beginning in 2019. This was a bigger cut than the 1 million barrels a day that commodity markets had expected. Oil prices and oil...
OPEC & Friends takes another step toward cutting production
Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of what is known as OPEC+ recommended a cut in oil production today. The group’s meeting ended without an agreement on the size of the proposed cut. But Russia did agree to participate in the production curbs for six months...
OPEC advisory group recommends cut of 1.3 million barrels a day to December 6 oil cartel summit
It’s only an advisory group with no decision-making power, but the recommendation from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Economic Commission Board is the first step in changing production policy at OPEC & Friends. Today the group told OPEC...
So much big picture uncertainty
For this short holiday trading week, I’m expecting volatility in asset classes that range from oil to stocks to the U.S. dollar, as traders and investors try to figure out how to “price in” a metric ton of macro uncertainty scheduled for the next...
Are the Saudis angry enough at President Trump to push OPEC to bigger than expected production cuts on December 6?
This is important–if very, very speculative–if you’re trying to figure out if OPEC will cut production by enough to end the oil bear market when it holds its regular meeting on December 6. Today Reuters is reporting that Saudi Arabia is extremely...
Market stumbles on trade news
Oil prices are up today with U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate ahead 2.07% to $56.84 a barrel as of 11:30 a.m. in New York. International benchmark Brent crude has gained 2.23% to $66.93 a barrel. Both prices remain below the psychologically important $60 a...
Oil plunges again–what’s next?
Oil prices went into free fall today, continuing the bear market in the commodity. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell 7.73% on the day to $55.30 a barrel. International benchmark Brent dropped 7.05% to $65.18 a barrel. Yesterday oil had rallied on news out of...
50 Best Stocks Portfolio pick Pioneer Natural Resources gives back a bit of its post earnings pop
On Monday, after the close of the New York market, Permian Basin oil shale power Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) reported third quarter earnings of $2.07 a share, 39 cents a share above the Wall Street consensus projection. Revenue climbed 112.2% year over year to...
Nothing but bad news–and S&P 500 still sinks only 0.55%
Red, red, red everywhere today. Caterpillar (CAT) and 3M (((MMM) disappointed on guidance. China and Europe sold off. As did the financial sector with the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) falling 0.77% to $25.90 to break or at least test support. And, then, as...
Oil sells off as Hurricane Michael goes from “rumor” to “fact”
Today’s drop in oil prices looks to me to be a classic buy on the rumor sell on the fact trade. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate dropped 2.81% today to $72.85. International benchmark Brent crude fell 2.68% to $82.72 a barrel. Yesterday oil moved up as...
Watch out! Oil prices look to be running away from OPEC/Russia controlWatch out! Oil prices look to be running away from OPEC/Russia control
Russia and Saudi Arabia have opened the taps, pumping an extra 1 million barrels a day of oil, and the two countries are making a big show of saying that they could do even more. But the oil market doesn’t seem to care and oil prices keep climbing. As of 11:30...
Oil is a story today, but Treasury market is “the” story
Oil prices are up again this morning with the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate ahead 0.21% to $72.23 a barrel as of noon New York time. International benchmark Brent has gained 1.02% to $82.03 a barrel. But “the” story today, I’d argue, is the...
Oil surges on no action at OPEC meeting
Today oil prices breached levels that have oil traders talking about $100 a barrel oil again on OPEC’s decision at its weekend meeting not to boost oil production. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate climbed 2.15% as of noon today, September 24, to move...
More trade sanctions today–this time it’s Russia (with big implications for global oil supply)
The United States has imposed new sanctions on Russia as punishment for that country’s use of nerve agents in a March 4 attack on former spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter in the United Kingdom. The sanctions are required under the 1991 Chemical and Biological...
So much for the oil rally–crude falls on supply AND demand worries
U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate closed down 1.35% today (to $67.83 a barrel) and international benchmark Brent crude tumbled 2.32% to $72.49 on bad news from the supply side and worries about the demand side. On the supply side a report from the U.S Energy...The oil price that didn’t bark in the night
Sometimes it’s how the market doesn’t react that’s important. Today the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a surprising build in U.S. crude oil inventories of 5.8 million barrels for the week ended on July 13. This comes after a big...
Government via Twitter: What did the Saudi’s actually say about increasing oil production?
On Saturday President Donald Trump wrote on Twitter that in a phone call with King Salman Saudi Arabia had agreed to increase oil production “maybe up to 2,000,000 barrels” in response to turmoil in Iran and Venezuela. The Saudi government has acknowledged that the...
My baseline U.S. stock market scenario for the next 30 days
So much negative uncertainty from big possible events. Such strong short term earnings fundamentals. How will these all balance out? Before I get to my take on the answer to that question let’s take a brief stop to look at what a baseline scenario is and why...
Aggressive November 4 U.S. deadline on ending Iran oil exports threatens more oil market turmoil
Want to know how high oil can go? So do the oil markets, frankly. West Texas Intermediate closed today at $72.32 a barrel, up another 2.54%. The U.S. crude benchmark stood at $64.19 on June 15. That’s a gain of 12.7%. Lurking in the wings is a demand by the...
Oil soars on U.S. inventory report, supply fears
As of noon New York time today, U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate is up 3.30%. International benchmark Brent is ahead 2.41%. The climb follows on data from the Energy Information Administration showing a huge draw of 9.9 millions barrels in U.S. crude stockpiles...
Oil price decline resumes after informal OPEC meeting Saturday
Oil prices continued their decline ahead of a June 22 meeting of OPEC and other producers that will discuss raising production to avoid political action in consuming countries to lower oil prices. As of 1:15 p.m. in New York, U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate was...
Now it’s the Saudis talking about increasing oil production
Yesterday, Russia sent oil prices tumbling by saying that it might be time for OPEC and its allies (including Russia) to revisit current production cuts. Today, it’s Saudi Arabia. “I think in the near future there will be time to release supply,”...
Russia and Saudi Arabia signal intent to revisit production curbs; oil retreats from three-year high
The energy ministers from Russia and Saudi Arabia will discuss a potential relaxation of the global output cap agreed between OPEC and Moscow when they meet on June 22. That was enough today to end the rally in oil. West Texas Intermediate fell to $70.71, down...
Israel/Iran exchange of fire near Golan Heights supports oil; worries about Saudi production increase weigh on market
Oil prices are little changed so far today with U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate off 0.04% to $71.11 a barrel as of noon New York time and international benchmark Brent down 0.06% to $77.16 a barrel. The exchange of rockets and bombs between Iranian forces in...
No surprise: Oil moves higher on day after U.S. pulls out of Iran nuclear deal
Some days you need to search for an explanation for a market move. Other days the explanation hits you over the head. Today crude oil is up, in a strong but orderly move. Two catalysts. First, yesterday President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would pull out of...
Israel’s Prime Minister announces major statement Monday night on Iranian nuclear program
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced that he will make a statement at 8 p.m. Tel Aviv time tonight on a “significant development” regarding the Iranian nuclear pact. (As best as I can do the conversions, 8 p.m. in Tel Aviv is 1 p.m. in New York.)...
Oil continues to move higher on Middle East fears
Oil futures in New York settled at their highest since December 2014. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate climbed 0.35% to close at $68.88 a barrel. International benchmark Brent crude rose 0.88% to $74.71 a barrel. The gains were unusual in that the U.S. dollar...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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