Is a dip in home sales a “canary in a coal mine” for economy?
Existing home sales fell 0.6% month-over-month in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.38 million. The consensus among economists surveyed by Briefing.com called for an annual rate of 5.45 million units. The May sales rate was revised down to a 5.41 million...
Fed chief’s Senate talk calms markets after Netflix guidance disappointment
In his semiannual Senate testimony on the state of the U.S. economy this morning Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell gave the U.S. economy a strong thumbs up–at least if the tariff war doesn’t hit the global economy too badly. (Powell completed his...
The good news in the bad news of today’s jobs numbers
You ‘ve got to remember that at this point in the Federal Reserve cycle good is bad and bad is good. So, by itself the good news in the June jobs report this morning would be counted as bad news. The economy added 213,000 jobs in June, well above the 195,000...
Decent retail sales in April point to likely rebound in consumer spending from first quarter weakness
Not great numbers but strong enough. For April it looks like a strong job market and higher take-home pay more than balanced out higher gasoline prices. Gas prices are now at their highest level since 2014. (Typically when gas prices climb, consumers cut back spending...
Consumer sentiment stays strong–with a few worrisome wrinkles
Normally I don’t pay much attention to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. The survey questions are just so broad that I’m not sure it’s an indicator of much of anything. Â But at the moment, I think the survey counts. And...
Economy adds a middling 164,000 jobs in April
It all depends on your benchmark. There was good news in today’s jobs report for April since the economy added 164,000 jobs, up from a revised 135,000 jobs in March. So yay! The jobs market rebounded from March weakness. And there was bad news in the report...
GDP growth ticks lower but wage gains pick up speed: Market takes possibility of four interest increases from Fed in 2018 more seriously
U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.3% in the first quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced before the financial markets opened for trading this morning in New York. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected growth of 2.1%. In the fourth quarter...
So how is the economy (remember the economy?) anyway?
Let’s take a look at the economy before this week gets sucked into the black hole of tariffs and trade wars. As you’ll remember when last we left the U.S. economy–on Friday morning–it had just reported a disappointing addition to 103,000 net...
Markets decide that economic data today show a glass half full
The U.S. stock market decided that today’s economic reports showed a glass half full. Interpretations pointing in the other direction, however, were easy enough to make so the end result wasn’t so much a wave of optimism lifting markets strongly higher as...
Initial claims support belief in strong March job growth report
Initial claims for unemployment for the week ended March 10 fell by by 4,000 to 226,000. That was in-line with projections from economists surveyed by Briefing.com. This is the 158th consecutive week that new claims for unemployment have been below 300,000. The less...
Retail sales fall in February raising possibility that fourth quarter GDP growth was lower than initially reported
U.S. retail sales fell for a third straight month in February–down 0.1%. The Commerce Department revised January sales higher than the initially reported 0.3% decline. But that still left January sales down 0.1%. That means that February marks a third...
Good jobs report turns into bad news for bonds and stocks this morning
The U.S. economy added 200,000 jobs in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected 180,000 net new jobs. The official unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. The U-6 total unemployment rate, which...
Economy cooking along for now but what’s with the continued drop in productivity?
Positive economic data today–for the short term. But some troubling longer term trends continue. Â Initial claims for unemployment fell more than expected to 230,000 for the week ended January 27 versus expectations for 238,000 initial claims among economists...
GDP disappoints, durable goods orders solid
The first read on growth in the U.S. economy during the fourth quarter was a tad disappointing. GDP increased by 2.6% year over year in the fourth quarter. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were looking for growth of 2.9%. In the third quarter of 2017 GDP grew at a...
Global manufacturing continues its strong run
The global economy just keeps on running in high gear. For the United States, today the ISM Manufacturing Index (Institute for Supply Management) climbed to 59.7 for December, well above the 58.2 in November. (Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a reading of...
So how strong is the economy–really?
The economic data this morning paint contradictory pictures on the strength of the U.S. economy. On the one hand GDP in the third quarter grew at a 3% annual rate. That was far better than the 2.6% expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. With the 3.1% growth in...
IMF gets giddy about global growth; raises forecasts for 2017 and 2018 by 0.1 percentage point each
In its regular update to its World Economic Forecast the International Monetary Fund has upped it forecast for global growth to 3.6% in 2017–the world economy grew by 3.2% in 2016–and to 3.7% in 2018. Both these growth rates are above the average for this...
Jobs numbers drop for September after hurricanes
It took three hurricanes to stall the momentum in the jobs market, but in the aftermath of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria, in September the U.S. economy saw its first drop in the number of jobs since September 2010. This breaks the historic 83-month run of monthly...
Initial claims fall setting up positive surprise in September jobs report tomorrow?
Initial claims for unemployment fell by 12,000 to 260,000 for the week ended September 30. Economists survyed by Briefing.com had projected initial claims of 265,000 for the week. The initial claims total remained below the 300,000 level that economists use as a...
U.S. manufacturing sector strengthens in September
It’s hard to interpret today’s report on manufacturing from the Institute for Supply Management because of the damage inflicted on the U.S. economy by hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria, but it certainly looks like the economy is strengthening,. The ISM...
Market sinks; volatility climbs on strong economic news, D.C. chaos
The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index closed down 1.54% today and the NASDAQ Composite fell 1.94%. Gold picked up 0.87%. The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) broke above 15 again, soaring 31.94% on the day. There was just too much for the markets to...
Q2 GDP growth worse than hoped but better than it was last quarter
The first reading on second quarter U.S. GDP growth from the Bureau of Economic Analysis puts growth at 2.6% year over year. That’s below the consensus of 2.8% growth among economists surveyed by Briefing.com. But an important advance from the growth rate in the...
Atlanta Fed raises Q2 GDP forecast; auto sales beg to differ
On July 3 the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDP forecast for second quarter GDP growth climbed to 3% year over year. That’s up from a forecast on June 30 Â for 2.7% growth for the quarter that ended on June 30. If the forecast proves accurate that would be good...
On Monday Manufacturing ISM blew out projections for June
The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index for June released Monday morning climbed to 57.8 from 54.9 in May. That was the highest level of the index, where anything above 50 signals expansion, since 2014. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had...
Today’s positive economic data help stabilize stocks
Lots of economic data this morning. None fall into the earthshaking category. But the general picture is positive. And that has helped stabilize stocks in New York. Â Economic Summary: Personal Income outpaces spending in May, Chicago PMI well above expectations On the...
Yesterday IMF gave up on Trump reflation trade; today financial markets say, Not yet
Yesterday the International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for U.S. economic growth to 2.1% for 2017 (from 2.3%) and to 2.1% in 2018 (from 2.5%.) The fund had included a likely infrastructure spending bill and a tax cut/tax reform package in its earlier forecast....
Regional Fed banks cut their forecasts for second and third quarter U.S. GDP growth
What? Did the regional Federal Reserve banks all miss their money coffee? Their GDP forecasts released today all sure were grumpy. The most visible of the bunch, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast calls for 2.9% growth in the second quarter. The forecast was...
Initial claims report good enough for June interest rate increase
Nothing in the weekly report on initial claims for unemployment to set the heart a twitter. But the numbers look good enough to keep the Federal Reserve on track for a 25 basis point interest rate increase at its June 14 meeting. Initial claims for the week ended May...
A Fed interest rate increase in June? Consumer spending says, Yes; Inflation slowdown says, Maybe
Consumer spending picked up in April, signaling that growth in the economy as a whole is headed for a rebound after a weak first quarter. Purchases increased by 0.4% in April, matching projections from economists surveyed by Bloomberg, after a 0.3% gain in March, the...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
Every post from Jubak Picks straight to your mailbox. And they're free!