I know it’s quaint, but let’s take a look a fundamentals–specifically estimated earnings for the third quarter of 2017. With stocks near record highs, it would be reassuring if the quarter was showing solid forecasted earnings growth.
Here’s what my two favorite analysts of earnings forecast are saying as of last week.
Yardeni Research is seeing a forecast of 5.1% year over year growth from Wall Street analysts as of September 21. On September 14 the Wall Street forecast was for 5.5% growth.
FactSet sees Wall Street looking for lower year over year growth of 4.2% for the quarter. That’s down from a Wall Street forecast of 7.5% growth in June.
For a little context, this forecast puts the third quarter disappointingly below the 10% growth delivered in the second quarter and the 11.8% growth forecast for the fourth quarter, according to Yardeni Research.
Earnings season begins slowing this year with PepsiCo (PEP) and Costco (COST) reporting on October 4 and October 5, respectively. The big banks don’t kick in until October 12 when Citigroup (C) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) report. We don’t get news from the big technology players until Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) report on October 26. Apple (AAPL) reports on October 31 and Facebook (FB) on November 1.
I wouldn’t say unfounded optimism but rather a decision to put tax cuts and liquidity ahead of earnings and revenue growth. The current argument is “They’ve got to put the money somewhere.”
It is quaint! But my question is: if these veteran analysts all foresee lower growth, then why aren’t we seeing any pullback in the market to speak of? Is it just unfounded optimism on the part of Wall Street?