Back on February 20, I posted a YouTube video recommending a buy of Novo Nordisk (NVO). In the video, “Buy GLP-1,” I said that the stock, along with Eli Lilly (LLY) was riding the momentum of increased sales of GLP-1 drugs, originally developed to treat diabetes, as weight-loss drugs. Buy, I said, despite the huge run-up in the shares, because new trials and analysis of existing data were pointing to expanded uses for the drugs.
Today, Novo Nordic announced exactly the kind of news that I had talked about. The company announced the headline results from its kidney outcomes trial.The double-blind trial compared injectable semaglutide 1.0 mg with placebo as an adjunct to standard of care for prevention of progression of kidney impairment and risk of kidney and cardiovascular mortality in people with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease. The trial results showed a 24% reduction in kidney disease progression, major adverse cardiovascular events, and death for people treated with semaglutide compared to placebo.
The very positive results weren’t exactly a surprise. In October Novo Nordisk announced that it would stop the trial early due to superior efficacy results.
The market is potentially very large. About 40% of people with type 2 diabetes have chronic kidney disease. So Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 drug, known as Ozempic, could become the first GLP-1 treatment option for people living with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease.
Novo Nordisk expects to file for regulatory approvals of a label expansion for Ozempic in the United States and the European Union in 2024.
Add these results to research suggesting new uses for this class of drugs. For example, a recent study by Epic Research of 4 million patients using GLP drugs has shown that these drugs seem to lower anxiety and depression, which could lead to it being prescribed by more doctors to more patients.
We’re also just at the beginning of efforts to improve delivery vehicles for these drugs, which would have the effect of expanding the market again and of extending the patent life of current drugs.
Shares of Novo Nordisk, and competitor Eli Lilly, aren’t cheap. Morningstar calculates that they each trade at 50% above fair value.
I added Novo Nordisk to my Jubak’s Picks Portfolio on February 20. The stock is up 2.63% since then as of the close on March 5.
I also own Eli Lilly in this portfolio. If you’re interested in another GLP-1 stock, I recently recommended Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) on results from a clinical trial showing that its potential GLP-1 drug showed a larger weight loss than drugs from Novo Nordisk or Lilly.
