Shares of Moderna (MRNA) were up 13.67% to $89.15 as of noon New York time today, December 14. They closed ahead 9.25% at $85.87.
A vaccine developed by Merck and Moderna helped prevent the recurrence of severe skin cancer for three years, according to new results released today. Patients with severe melanomas who got the vaccine and Merck’s cancer drug Keytruda were 49% less likely to die or have their cancer return than those who got Keytruda alone.
The news is especially important for Moderna. The company’s MRNA vaccine for Covid-19 validated the company’s technology but with Covid vaccine revenues in steep decline, the company is trying to convince the financial markets that it can use its technology to develop other vaccines. Moderna’s revenue from the Covid vaccine was $18 billion in each of 2021 and 2022. Forecasts call for a drop to $6 billion on 2023. And Morningstar estimates a longer-term annual revenue rate from the Covid vaccine of about $4 billion, assuming that at-risk populations get the vaccine on a regular basis.The company’s stock had lost more than half its value this year through Wednesday’s close. Morningstar calculates a $227 fair value for the shares.
Melanoma accounts for only about 1% of U.S. skin cancers, but its causes most of the annual deaths from skin cancer. The new cancer vaccine involves analyzing the genetic sequence of each patient’s tumor to create a personalized therapy that teaches the immune system to recognize markers of the abnormal growth. In the mid-stage study, patients received the drugs after the tumors were surgically removed. The three-year results are similar to those seen after two years, when the risk of death or recurrence was 44% lower among those who got the drug-vaccine combination than those getting Keytruda alone. Side effects remained generally mild, such as fatigue, pain at the injection site and chills.
Now the question for Moderna is how long it will take to get the vaccine through the remaining regulatory steps.
In July, Moderna and Merck began a late-stage trial of the combined treatment in melanoma patients. Such a trial may be necessary to confirm the results, and could take three or four years. But Moderna and Merck want to talk to regulators about getting the skin cancer vaccine approved on a faster timeline. The cancer vaccine could launch as early as 2025, Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel said in an interview on CNBC.
Merck and Moderna are testing the combination in other cancers where Keytruda is already used. Earlier this week, the companies said they began a late-stage trial of the combination in lung cancer patients.
Moderna is a member of my 12-18 month Jubak Picks Portfolio. The shares ae down 44% since I added them to the portfolio on April 14, 2023.
