Peace talk whipsaws dollar, oil, Treasuries again
If you have to follow the news with your cash, these are insanely difficult markets. The dollar, seen as a safe haven asset, fell by the most in more than a month as President Donald Trump vowed of progress on a deal to end the war. The day before President Trump had...
If you’re looking for a highly leveraged play on the worst case scenario in the Strait of Hormuz, I think it’s natural gas and not oil
No one knows, of course, how the attack on Iran will play out in either the medium or long term. The energy and financial markets were closed for the weekend, so they’ve given us relatively subdued feedback on the events. It will be “interesting” to see on Monday how...
And now what in the Middle East? And for global financial markets?
After Israel and its allies (with the help of some Arab states that don’t want to see a wider Middle East war and who aren’t thrilled with the growing power of Iran and its proxies) succeeded in shooting down almost all of the drones (170), ballistic missiles (120),...
Putin likely to lash out after Russian setbacks in Ukraine–watch wheat, corn, and natural gas
News this weekend that Ukrainian forces had pushed to the Russian border with the country in the Kharkiv oblast is likely to provoke a big reaction from Russian President Vladimir Putin. It’s not just that Ukrainian forces have advanced but that they have racked...
So how big a deal is the Russian invasion of Ukraine to the financial markets?
Let me start off by making something very clear–the Russian de facto invasion of Ukraine is a very big deal for the people of Ukraine, the separatists regions, and the countries of Eastern Europe. I think we’re looking at the potential for thousands of...
Let’s hear it for stability–thank goodness, so far today is dull on the U.S. market
No big moves. No major disruptions. No threats of meltdowns. Today has been a welcome breather, a bit of stability, for market that’s had more than its share of excitement this week. So far. It’s only 1:30 p.m. in New York. And we could see selling or...
5 smart, short-term moves while we wait for longer-term trends to resolve
Yesterday in my post “What do you do when the market is insane and you’re not?” I argued that one of the dangers in a very volatile market with strong–and temporarily profitable–short-term trends is that we’ll give in to the...
Oil holds above $60 on Iran protests but market discounts “regime change”
As of 12 noon New York time U.S. crude benchmark West Texas Intermediate was off 0.28% but still holding above $60.25 a barrel. International benchmark Brent was off 0.72% but was still holding above $65 at $66.39 a barrel. Prices above $60 are a reflection of market...
Quiet day so far but trends intact under surface
A very subdued market so far (at 2 p.m. New York time) today. Maybe its the solar eclipse. After all who wants to put on a long position when the sun is about to be eaten by dragons? As of 2 p.m. the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index was up just 0.06%. But...
Oil plunges on U.S. inventory surprise and pumping-happy Iraq
West Texas Intermediate sank today by 5.04% to $45.76 a barrel. International benchmark Brent crude dropped 3.95% to $48.14%. The fall began with a surprise increase in U.S oil inventories reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Oil stockpiles rose by...
When to profit from Brazil? What to do about OPEC next week? Use my free 30-day offer on my $199 JubakAM.com site (celebrating 20 years of Jubak Picks) to follow these profit opportunities this weekend
JubakAm.com doesn’t go quiet on most weekends. And this weekend is no exception. I’ll have posts on Saturday and Sunday about how to profit (and when to buy) from the turmoil in Brazil and how to position your oil holdings and portfolio ahead of next...
Here’s what I’ve been writing about on my paid sites: Reading oil prices from the futures market and a (possible) return of volatility and the VIX
Let me share two inside baseball investing posts that I put up today on my paid sites. Yes, that’s sites. Plural. I’ve been busy building a second site, JugglingWithKnives.com, that parallels the focus of my book Juggling With Knives on volatility. If you...
National Security Advisor’s remarks on Iran upend oil market after today’s initial decline on U.S. inventory build
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported today that U.S. crude inventories climbed by 6.5 million barrels; energy analysts were looking for build of 3.289 million barrels. Gasoline inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels against projections for a build of...
Oil to stay above $50 but not crack $60 on OPEC compliance and increase in U.S. production
Sorry to break into the stream of never-ending Trump news, but there is other news driving the markets now. Yesterday, January 30, oil prices fell as another increase in the number of oil rigs at work in the U.S. met skepticism about OPEC’s ability/willingness...
Surprise! U.S oil inventories rise when they were expected to drop
For the week ended December 16, U.S. crude inventories grew by 2.26 million barrels, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Going into this morning’s report, oil analysts had expected stockpiles to fall by 2.3 million barrels. That surprise...
How big an oil supply cut do we need to reduce stockpiles? One answer from IEA
Oil is up about 17% since OPEC announced that it had agreed to cut output on November 30. That deal was expanded to include important non-OPEC producers on December 10. Is that enough, though, to switch oil supply from surplus to deficit and to cut into global oil...
After the big oil rally: Winners from OPEC’s agreement to cut production
This post originally ran on my subscription site JubakAM.com on December 1. The entire energy sector was up Wednesday on OPEC’s agreement to cut production–but not every stock rose to the same degree. I think these themes defined the way that the market...
Oil and oil stocks soar today as OPEC agreement is stronger than Wall Street expected
Yesterday I wrote that the financial markets’ reaction to whatever came out of OPEC’s meeting today would depend on how weak or strong the agreement to cut production was. Well, the actual agreement announced today to cut oil production was far stronger...
Oil prices surge on new optimistic theory about production cut at OPEC’s November 30 meeting
U.S. oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate surged 3.61% to $47.34 a barrel and international crude benchmark Brent 3.71% to $48.60 a barrel as of 11:45 a.m. New York time today as the market posited a new, optimistic theory about OPEC November 30 meeting. That meeting...
Oil price volatility increases as we get closer to OPEC’s November 30 deadline
Oil prices were all over the chart on Wednesday, November 17, as negative data battled optimistic words. Look out for more days of this war as we get closer to the November 30 meeting of OPEC that is supposed to result (but might not) in an agreement to significantly...
Oil stumbles to near $42 before steadying
I suspect that today’s “rally” in oil was simple a result of the commodity falling too far, too fast and opening the way for some traders to make a buck or two on the upside. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell to $42.24 a barrel as of 11:45...
6 more points for my A-W investor’s guide to the post-Trump victory financial landscape
The problem with trying to put together a comprehensive guide to the likely investment impacts of a Trump administration on the fly in the day after the election is that you inevitably leave stuff out. This being the Internet, however, it’s easy to add on to...
Suddenly U.S. stocks seem vulnerable
It’s not like U.S. stocks didn’t have enough to worry about today. The bond market priced in the highest level of inflation expectations since May. Oil fell as Russia’s biggest producer Rosneft said it won’t cut output. Alcoa (AA), the company...Rethinking emerging markets after Libya? Who isn't? Here's how that violence has changed my thinking.
Is the violence in Libya the last straw for the world’s emerging economies? Or at least for investors in those markets? I certainly think that the big drops in emerging market stock markets are leading some investors to abandon markets that they never felt all that...Trying to put a price on fear
There’s short-term panic and long-term fear. Both are at work in the financial markets this morning. The common factor, of course, is Libya, where Muammar Gaddafi seems determined to fight for control to “the last man standing” in the words of his son Seif al-Islam....And the winners among oil stocks from the Egyptian crisis are…
Interesting pattern in today’s big winners on the New York Stock Exchange: the list is dominated by the names of relatively small, predominantly domestic energy producers. As of the end of trading in New York today you would have found these stocks among the big...Update Petrobras (PBR)
Disappointment on Petrobras (PBR). Although it’s disappointment that investors will ultimately get over. The government is charging Petrobras more than expected to buy 5 billion barrels of oil reserves. (Pre-transfer the company has proven reserves of 15 billion...Update Petrobras (PBR)
(I’m on vacation until August 24. Until then JubakPicks.com will operate on a reduced schedule of one or two posts a day. I’ll resume the full schedule when I return.) Forget about news that Petrobras (PBR)–one of the stocks in my long-term...Update Transocean (RIG)
The best you can say about Transocean (RIG) is that it has a tin ear for public opinion. The company’s public response to the Deepwater Horizon disaster in April has been to say 1) It wasn’t our fault and 2) We’re not on the hook for very much money. Even if true, and...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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