In the earnings season that starts Monday, it's guidance for the third quarter (and not second quarter numbers) that counts
Today is the calm before the earnings storm. Earnings season starts on Monday July 12 when Alcoa (AA) reports second quarter earnings. And then we’re off to the races with Intel (INTC) reporting on July 13, Google (GOOG) on July 15 and three big banks, JPMorgan Chase...So when are stocks cheap enough to buy?
Are stocks cheap now? That’s the question that investors inevitably ask after a drop like the one we’ve seen since the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index hit a high at 1217 on April 23. From that high through the close on July 2 the index dropped almost 16%....This stock market bounce has bought us the luxury of uncertainty
So far we’ve got a bounce. It’s appreciated. The profits, if you’ve made any, are real. Enjoy. But so far that’s all it is. Stocks were badly oversold. They’d fallen too far, too fast as how Wall Street puts it. That created expectations that stocks might rally in the...Finally first quarter 2010 numbers for Jubak's Picks–nothing to write home about
The Jubak’s Picks, my 12-18 month portfolio, returned a paltry 0.7% in the first quarter of 2010. Since today, June 30, marks the close of the second quarter of 2010, I guess you can say I’m little behind in reporting the performance of Jubak’s Picks. In fact I’m...Good news for U.S. economic growth in this morning's durables orders for May
Ignore the headlines saying that durable goods orders fell in May. Boeing is almost single-handedly responsible for the drop as aircraft orders fell 30% in May after soaring by more than 200% in April. Boeing said it received just 5 orders in May after getting 34 in...Bullish or bearish? It depends on …
Question: Jim, are you bullish or bearish? Answer: It depends on what time period we’re talking about. In the very short-term, say the next 4 to 6 weeks, I’m bullish. I think the market is gradually inching its way higher after breaking through resistance at 1108 on...Get ready for a flood of economic news beginning Wednesday that's strong enough to move stocks
On the economic front, Monday and Tuesday of this week are the calm before a storm of reports with market-moving potential hits on Wednesday. The biggest news in the first two days of the week is the June Empire Manufacturing Index, a survey of manufacturers in New...The next rally won't be like the last one–here's how to make sure you find the next leaders
If the bull market that ended in 2000 the bear market that began in 2000, the bull market that began in 2003, the bear market that began in 2007, and the possible bull market that began in 2009 and that may or may not have ended in 2010 teach investors anything, it’s...Is this the Son of Bounce?
Here’s one read of the stock market action of the last two days. Essentially what we’re seeing today and what we saw on Tuesday, June 8, is a resumption of the bounce that was demolished by the horribly disappointing U.S. jobs report on Friday, June 4. Before those...The rising level of pessimism is making me optimistic
I love these poll results from Bloomberg. If you’re a contrarian, you’ll be licking your chops. The pessimism about the global economy is so thick you can cut it with a spoon. And so many investors say they’re shunning emerging stock markets such as China, Brazil, and...And what will Monday bring? Will the bottom hold?
Last week the thought was, maybe better say the hope was, that the stock market had some upside after it held above the lows of 1045 set by the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index intraday on February 5. I don’t think that anybody was looking for an extended rally...The economic numbers that really move U.S. stocks are due tomorrow
Get ready for a flood of U.S. economic data tomorrow, June 4. U.S. stock markets opened ahead this morning on positive economic numbers and, more importantly, on anticipation that tomorrow’s numbers will clearly show that growth in the United States remains on track....Projections for an active hurricane season helped drive yesterday's commodities rally
Who says you can’t do anything about the weather? When the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced yesterday, May 27, that it was projecting one of the most active hurricane seasons on record for the June 1 to November 30, 2010 season,...Is it real or is it just a bounce? Only your crystal ball knows for sure
So where does the stock market go from here? U.S. stocks are bouncing off the February 2010 low near 1040 on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index. Good news for anyone with money in the stock market. But what does it mean? Two possibilities Possibility #1: We’re...U.S. GDP revised lower but I think that's old news
We’ll see exactly what the fear level is today when U.S. stocks get a chance to react to this morning’s revision of first quarter U.S. GDP growth. Economists had projected that the Bureau of Economic Analysis would raise its estimate on first quarter GDP on its first...Bounce! U.S. stocks follow Asian and European markets upward
We’re getting an over-sold, bargain-hunter’s bounce in stocks this morning Asian and European markets kept yesterday’s  end of the day recovery in New York stocks going overnight and that then fed back into stock prices in New York at the open today, May 26. If you’re...Another test for U.S. stocks: Will the S&P 500 hold 1040?
Can U.S. stocks hold the line when the rest of the world’s stock markets are in retreat? After an initial self-off the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index bounced—slightly—off support at 1040. You’ll remember from last week’s post...Sell, sure, but try to do it on the fundamentals and not in panic
Panic doesn’t change fundamentals. Try to remember that as what is so far a very scary correction challenges our ability to invest rationally instead of emotionally. There are stocks that, if you own them, you should think about selling because the euro debt crisis...Will support hold or are we looking at another 5% down for U.S. stocks?
Looks like a big test today for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index and for U.S. stocks in general. Today straight out of the gate the index broke below the 1100 level where, over the last few days, it looked like the index was trying to stabilize. (See my post from...Earnings are solid–and the economy's on track–even if the U.S. stock market doesn't care right now
Earnings, schmearnings. The stock market simply doesn’t care. After the close yesterday, May 18, Hewlett Packard (HPQ) reported earnings for its fiscal second quarter of 2010 of $1.09 a share. That was 4 cents a share better than Wall Street had projected. Revenue...Time to start raising some cash–there are bargains waiting down the road
Investors raise cash for all kinds of reasons. In anticipation of some big personal expenditure. To protect a portfolio against risk in a volatile market. To have the firepower to take advantage of a future buying opportunity. That last reason is why I’ve decided to...Strength in Asia signals U.S. stocks could have another good day
 It looks like the rally could run for another day. Overnight Asian stocks moved up in reaction to rising prices in the U.S. markets on May 12 and to good earnings news from technology bellwethers IBM (IBM) and Cisco Systems (CSCO) after the close of U.S. trading....Looking for euro stock bargains? You haven't missed out and here are three to watch
Despite Monday’s (May 10) huge bounce on news that European Union governments had agreed on a $1 trillion rescue package, I don’t think you need to chase European stocks. The stock and bond markets might have been convinced for a day that the Greek, Spanish, etc. debt...Yes, the problem was computerized program trades
This from Bloomberg tonight (May 6): “Computerized trades sent to electronic networks turned an orderly decline into a rout, according to Larry Leibowitz, the chief operating officer of NYSE Euronext. While the first half of the Dow’s plunge probably reflected...New York we had a problem: Some trades today were executed at the erroneous prices
Overloaded trading systems with badly lagging prices during today’s 700-point intraday plunge gave traders erroneous prices. We might know how big the problem was tomorrow. But for tonight we do know that the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ are both unwinding...Here's how the technical levels help explain what's happened today
Since, in my opinion, technical levels explain the huge plunge that took the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1,000 points or so (it’s not clear what real stock prices were during the heaviest trading since exchanges fell well behind on executing orders), let’s take...We're moving from a glass-is-half-full to a glass-is-half-empty stock market
Do you feel the psychology of this market changing? A few weeks ago I think you could have accurately said that investors on the sidelines were waiting to get into what they saw as a continuing stock market rally. I think that was true as late as April 15 (when the...So where do stocks go from here?
Trying to figure out where the stock market—or actually stock markets since global markets aren’t closely correlated right now—is headed from here? Remember that trends always run further and longer than investors expect. What does that mean at the moment? The U.S....Are stocks headed for an earnings season of selling on the good news?
Beware the Ides of April. As that well known Roman risk taker Julius Caesar found out many quarters ago, living up to expectations can be a tough job. And the crowd can take it out of your hide whether you do or don’t. All that applies to the upcoming earnings...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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