VIX fear index continues to fall–can this market get more complacent?
The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index, the so-called fear index, fell another 2.83% yesterday, August 28, to 14.43. Hedge funds are betting the calm will last: they are shorting the VIX at rates not seen in three years. Hedge funds and large speculators were net...
If August 1 tariffs don’t lead to a climb in volatility in the next few weeks, it will be time to rethink options bets
I’m looking for volatility’s last stand in the next few weeks. Stock market volatility, as measured by the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) just refuses to move higher. Tariff hikes? Who cares. Speculation that the President will fire the head of the...
VIX drops back to 22.53–I’m looking to replay my January volatility trade
22.53. That was the close on the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) today, Friday, May 9. It’s safe to say that stock market volatility is way down. Back on April 21, the “fear index” was at 34.21. On April 8, at the bottom of the turmoil that followed on the...
Next big volatility day? Looks like tomorrow, Thursday
The options market is implying the S&P 500 Index will move 1.2% in either direction Thursday morning on the report on U.S. initial and continuing claims for unemployment. The options market is pointing to about that same level of potential volatility on August...
The VIX Call Options I bought on my subscription JAM.com site are up 38% since September 25–hold ’em
The VIX, the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index, climbed another 12.32% today, October 2, to 19.78. The Call Options–with a strike at 17 and an expiration on December 20–I bought on the VIX on September 25 are up 38% as of the close on October 2. (I hold...
The stock market is trading in narrower and narrower bands
Important observation out of Morningstar on Friday. While the Morningstar U.S. Market Index is up 15.4% from its bear-market low on October 14, the market is only 1.4% higher than it was at the end of November. AND in recent months, the stock market has been moving in...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick KBE Bank Stocks ETF
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-fifty-first YouTube video: Quick Pick KBE Bank Stocks ETF Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5 Years: Free download...
It’s a short week but with lots of potential worry and volatility
What’s on tap for this week? Volatility, volatility, volatility. Even though it’s a short Thanksgiving market week. Worry over the cryptocurrency meltdown of cryptocurrency exchange FTX. According to a Saturday bankruptcy filing in Delaware, FTX owes...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: “Trend of the Week You Can’t Trade Random Volatility”
My one-hundred-and-fiftieth YouTube video “Trend of the Week: You Can’t Trade Random Volatility” went up today. I like volatility–much of the time. It’s a source of potential profits. However, when the volatility seems random as it does...
Extreme day to day volatility is hiding the stock market’s trends–and 4 ways to put this volatility to use
Consternation isn’t an investment strategy. Although I certainly understand that reaction to current stock market moves. The day to day volatility is that extreme. But if we focus on that volatility and on how confusing this market is, I think we’re in...
Get used to it: Today I was an investing genius; yesterday I was an investing idiot; tomorrow?
Yesterday I owned the wrong stocks. Ford Motor (F) fell another 0.51%. Lithium producer Albemarle (ALB) dropped 1.39%. Deere (DE) gave up 1.38%. Today I owned the right stocks. Ford was up 3.55%. Albemarle gained 6.02%. Deere picked up 1.59%. And other stocks in my...
Remember that volatility creates volatility–time to look to some tax loss selling (like Nektar)
With the VIX “fear index” falling back closer to “normal” levels–it dropped to 21.89 yesterday from 31.12 on December 1–it sure feels like the extreme volatility of the end of November and early December is on the ebb. The move to...
Back to the races: S&P 500 up 2.08% this morning as Omicron fears abate
Here we go again. It’s not that we really have any more information about the Omicron Variant–we certainly don’t know what its effects will be on global economic acuity–but just as fears that the Covid-19 variant would send the world back into...
Be careful out there: This is one insanely volatile market both on the up and down sides
Want to know exactly how volatile the stock market is right now? Yesterday investors and traders got news that the first case of the Omicron Variant had been recorded in California. On that, and some “We’ll tighten sooner than expected” remarks from...
Fed, jobs report clears the deck for an end of the year market melt up
The dominoes keep tumbling and I think we’re now set up for one of those extremely volatile market melt ups through early January. First, on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve removed a big worry hanging over the stock market when it announced that it would begin...
Next clue on Evergrande crisis will come from People’s Bank on Wednesday
Even though China Evergrande has missed interest payments to its biggest bank creditors, banks seem to be waiting for official guidance from the government before making any moves to declare the property development company in default. The banks–and investors...
Individuals buying on the dip can’t keep stocks in the green today
Retail investors sure tried. They bought $1.93 billion in stocks on Monday. But after a solidly higher open today, Tuesday, September 21, that saw the Standard & Poor’s 500 up 0.78% at 9:48 a.m., stocks drifted slowly lower for the rest of the day as a...
Call to Action: Rolling over VIX Options today
On my paid JubakAM.com site today, I recommended selling the November 17 VIX Call Options in my Volatility Portfolio and rolling that profit of 41.25% over to buy the December 22 VIX Call Options. Just so you know what I’m doing on my subscription site about...
Will we get “inflation volatility” from tomorrow’s CPI report?
Economists expect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to have edged lower in August in tomorrow morning’s report. Expectations are that the Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell in August to a 4.2% year over year rate. The core CPI hit 4.5%...
Watch my new YouTube Video: “September and October 2021 Worse Than Usual for Investors?”
I’m starting up my videos on again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My forty-sixth YouTube video “September and October 2021 Worse Than Usual for Investors?” went up today. The “solutions” post will go up Sunday. Please watch...
Some odd (and worrying) signs from trading volume today
Today the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained just 0.15%. Trying volume was really light on the day at 1.735 billion shares. Normal average daily volume is almost twice that at 3.404 billion shares. Just about what I’d expect from a stock market where...
These are the markets that try portfolio’s souls
As I write this on Friday, May 14, at 3:25 New York time, the Standard & Poor’s 500 has climbed 1.61% for the day to 4178.91. That puts it within 56 points of the close for the index of 4232.60. So after all panic in the early part of the week, the index is...
Watch my new YouTube video: 3 Picks for Continued Volatility
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The fourteenth YouTube video “3 Picks for Continued Volatility” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. You can see it...
Sorry, the volatility isn’t over because the climb in Treasury yields isn’t over
In the last few days the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has tumbled from 1.6% on Monday, March 8, to 1.54% on Tuesday to 1.52% today. That’s brought a breather selling that had, by Monday, pushed the NASDAQ Composite index into a correction of around 11%...
Look ahead to a volatile 9 months: Time to chew gum, walk, rub your belly, and pat your head at the same time
As of today, November 3 at 12:30 p.m., I don’t know who will win the Presidential election. I don’t know if the rally in the stock market today, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 up 2.02% at 12:30 p.m. New York time, is a vote for some specific...
Stocks continue to sell off as market sees coronavirus lockdown fears coming true
The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed down 1.21% today and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.59%. The NASDAQ Composite was lower by 2.45% and the NASDAQ 100 fell 2.54%. The Russell 2000 small cap index tumbled by 1.96%. The rising tide of new...
Passive investing strategies look like they raise risk of big but infrequent spikes in volatility
Readers of on my JubakAM.Com site in comments to a number of my posts recently have been kicking around the question of whether the huge increase in passive investing strategies has changed volatility in the stock market. Passive investment strategies such as indexing...
So this is volatility! Don’t beat yourself up if you don’t get each day right
On Wednesday, I felt really stupid. I don’t believe in this rally. I still think we’re due for the bear to come roaring back. And I think the bottom in this market is still somewhere ahead. But on Wednesday April 29, I felt completely WRONG. The Standard...
S&P 500 gains 4.22% today–there’s a trend here but it’s not what you might think
The “explanation” for today’s 4.22% gain in the S&P 500 and the 4.53% gain in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is that it’s a reaction to the surprising victories by former Vice-President Joe Biden over Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders in...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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