45 days to the next government funding crisis?
The odds of another government shutdown “crisis” in 45 days will rise or fall with Representative Matt Gaetz’s (R-Florida) efforts to remove House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Gaetz and a small harder core of the hard core Republican right in the House...
Consumer showing signs of stress in August
Inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose 0.1% last month. The report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed inflation-adjusted spending on services rose 0.2%, helped by a pickup in outlays on transportation and recreation. Spending on merchandise fell 0.2%, the...
Low inflation in Fed’s favorite indicator says No interest rate increase at November 1 meeting
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index (PCE), rose at the slowest monthly pace in August since late 2020. The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out food and energy prices,...
Looking for signs of weakness in consumer spending? Did we just get one?
Today’s revisions of second quarter GDP showed that U.S. consumer spending grew only half as fast as reported in earlier estimates on the quarter. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic activity, rose an annualized 0.8% in the...
Mortgage rates hit a 23-year high–is this the peak? (Probably not)
Mortgage rates surged to a 23-year high this week. The rate on the average 30-year fixed mortgage increased to 7.31% from 7.19% the week prior, according to Freddie Mac. That’s the highest rate since mid-December 2000, when it averaged 7.42%. TThe higher rates have...
Have you missed it? Some stocks are on the brink of a correction
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index (closing price) peaked on July 31 at 4588.96. The index is down 5.9% since then (as of the September 22 close.) That’s not correction territory (a drop of 10% ore more) but I’d say stocks can feel the hot breath...
A tough day for tech–Part 2, Bad news from Adobe (and selling Adobe out of my Volatility Portfolio on JAM)
Now that Fed day is done and behind us, we return to our regularly scheduled programming. Back on September 15, I posted “A tough day for tech–Part 1” after news on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) reporting that the company was slowing...
No (2023) surprises Fed surprises on 2024
At today’s meeting the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee left the central bank’s policy interest rate at 5.25% to 5.50%. In its Dot Plot forecast the Fed signaled one more interest rate hike for 2023. In its forecast the bank said that rates...
What to watch for in Wednesday’s Dot Plot from the Fed
Here’s my cheat sheet of what to watch for in Wednesday’s Dot Plot revision of the Federal Reserve’s forecasts for the rest of 2023 and 2024. The last revisions before this came at the Fed’s June meeting so there’s reason to think that...
Moderna shares popped 3.2% yesterday–here’s why
Shares of Moderna (MRNA) closed up 3.18% yesterday, September 13, on news that 1. The Food & Drug Administration has approved updated Covid-19 vaccine boosters (including one from Moderna) and that the Centers for Disease Control was recommending the boosters for...
Will it work? People’s Bank tries to boost growth without tanking the yuan
The People’s Bank of China cut the amount of cash banks must hold in reserve for the second time this year. The move is an effort to boost flagging economic growth in China. The bank could have cut its benchmark interest rate in pursuit of the same goal. But...
Selling Apple ahead of the September 12 product news
I expect a wild ride for Apple (AAPL) this week and consequently for the entire tech sector. Apple shares dropped another 3% on Thursday taking the two-day losses in the shares to almost $200 billion, (Yep, with a “B.” That brought Apple’s market cap...
China growth weakness sends U.S. (and emerging market) stocks down
Last week I posted a video arguing that, again, U.S. stocks were the only game in town with both the Chinese and European Union economies sputtering. The market action today, September 5, showed, however, that even if the U.S. economy is leading the world with solid...
Consumer loan delinquencies hit decade high–we’re not out of the woods on a hard landing yet
More American consumers fell behind on their car loan and credit card payments in the last quarter than at any time in more than a decade. The problem is most acute for lower-income consumers who have exhausted the money from government stimulus checks during the...
Resuming our regularly scheduled programming–my first post from Venice
We’ve finished moving the JubakAM.com editorial offices (and residence) to Venice. The move was intended to be seamless. I hoped to keep posting on my regular schedule as a team of gondoliers rowed us across the Atlantic. But moving, as always, was more...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Is Bank Lending Finally Starting to Get Tighter?
Today I posted my three-hundred-and-seventh YouTube Video: Is Bank Lending Finally Starting to Get Tighter? Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5 Years:...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week Are We Looking at a Supply Crisis for Treasuries?
Today I posted my three-hundred-and-sixth YouTube Video: Trend of the Week Are We Looking at a Supply Crisis for Treasuries? Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for...
Here’s my preview: CPI inflation report for July due Thursday a.m.
There’s a good chance that the Thursday morning CPI inflation report for July will show a small step backwards in the Fed’s battle against inflation. Here’s the Wall Street consensus as of the end of last week according to FactSet: All-items headline...
Gone to the Beach!!
I’m headed to the big sand of Fire Island for a few days. Back in the saddle on Saturday. Enjoy the August sun but stay hydrated! Jim P.S. Photo is Temple of the Sun
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: What About That 2.4% GDP Growth Rate Surprise?
Today I posted my three-hundred-and-fifth YouTube Video: What About That 2.4% GDP Growth Rate Surprise? Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5 Years: Free...
Fitch cuts U.S. credit rating
The big problem, in my opinion, is that the Friday’s action by Fitch Rating won’t be the last ding to the U.S credit rating. It’s hard of me to see a quick turnaround in any of the negative trends that Fitch cited as a reason for lowering its rating...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: The Coming End of Business as Usual
Today I posted my three-hundred-and-second YouTube Video: The Coming End of Business as Usual Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5 Years: Free download...
Danaher continues its post-Covid reset–now is the time to buy future growth
The comparisons with 2022 continue to hurt shares of Danaher (DHR). For the second quarter, reported Monday, July 24, the company saw revenue down 8% and adjusted earnings per share off 26% year over year. The culprit is easy to see. In 2022 Danaher’s...
Fed bumps interest rates up another 25 basis points, says future increase “depends on the data”
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark short-term interest rate 25 basis points to 5.25% to 5.50% on Wednesday, July 26. The central bank said that further interest rates are likely, but that the timing of any rate increases was contingent on data showing how the...
Tesla drops on earnings–it’s all about falling margins
Tesla (TSLA) delivered a big beat over Wall Street estimates when the company reported second quarter earnings after the close on July 19. The company reported earnings of 91 cents a share, well above the Wall Street projection of 80 cents a share. But in after hours...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick Iron Mountain
Today I posted my three-hundredth YouTube Video: Quick Pick Iron Mountain Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5 Years: Free download for subscribers to...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick Nvidia Hold Through Earnings on August 23
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-ninety-seventh YouTube Video: Quick Pick Nvidia Hold Through Earnings on August 23 Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Remember the Quiet Period
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-ninety-sixth YouTube Video: Remember the Quiet Period Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5 Years: Free download for...
Yesterday’s CPI inflation report created a huge dilemma for the Federal Reserve (and your portfolio)–here’s what to watch
Yesterday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that all-items inflation rose at just a 3% annual rate in June. That was a huge drop from the 4% annual rate reported in May. The inflation numbers immediately prompted Wall Street to, again, declare that the Federal...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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