Economists say recession odds now a coin flip
First, the optimists among economists who believe the United States will dodge a Recession. And then the pessimists who say we’ll see the economy shrink in the first quarter of 2025. (First quarter GDP is scheduled to be reported on the morning of April 30.) Even the...
The July 7 jobs report will be decisive for the Fed on interest rates
I expect the Friday, July 7, jobs report for June to be decisive in the Federal Reserve’s July 26 decision to raise/not-to-raise its benchmark interest rates. The CME FedWatch Tool current calculates the odds of a 25 basis point increase at 86.2%. The Bureau of...
So how much damage is this debt ceiling fracas going to do to the economy? A deal could still cost the economy 570,000 jobs
We all know that a continued standoff on the debt ceiling would be bad for the U.S. economy and financial markets. But even a deal along current lines is going to cost jobs–lots of jobs–and take a bite out of economic growth, according to Bloomberg...
The problem with Goldilocks (if you’re an investor or trader)
The Producer Price Index rose 0.25% in April from March and at a 2.3% rate year-over-year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, May 11. This index measures prices at the wholesale level–changes at that level eventually show up in the prices that...
Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick Newmont
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-sixty-third YouTube video: Quick Pick Newmont Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5 Years: Free download for...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week Houston, We Have a Trend Problem
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-fifty-eighth YouTube video: Trend of the Week Houston, We Have a Trend Problem Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5...
Powell refused to rule out recession yesterday and today markets sell off
Yesterday, Fed chair Jerome Powell in his post-Fed-meeting press conference said that a recession in 2023 isn’t inevitable. Growth will stay positive next year, he continued, although “it’s not going to feel like a boom.” How much isn’t...
AbbVie raises dividend again–but only by 5%
Once a company has put in the time and money to make the Dividend Aristocrats list, the company isn’t likely to squander that investment just because a recession looms. To make the list–and garner a big chunk of cash from conservative dividend...
I’m selling Dow tomorrow out of my Dividend Portfolio
The November rally was kind to Dow (DOW) with the stock up 10.4% from November 1 through December 1. The shares have given back some of that lately, but I’d still like to book any gains here ahead of a possible recession or at least a further economic slowdown...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick Kroger
My one-hundred-and-seventy-sixth YouTube video: “Quick Pick Kroger” went up today. Grocery stocks aren’t very volatile. Normally. So when shares of Kroger, the nation’s free-standing largest grocery chain, went up almost 7.5% on Friday,...
The wrinkles in the July jobs surprise that argue maybe the economy isn’t “super
Today’s surprise in the July jobs number–the U.S. economy added 528,000 jobs rather than the 270,000 or so economists expected is indeed a big deal. It certainly argues that any “official” recession call from economists is still a way off. And...
Surprise! Economy added 528,000 jobs in July–what’s it all mean (especially for the Fed)?
The U.S. economy added 528,000 jobs in July. The increase crushed all estimates. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for about half that gain. The Labor Department also revised June job gains upward to 398,000. The unemployment rate dipped to 3.5%, matching...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Jobs: the Recession Barrier Erodes
My one-hundred-and-sixty-third YouTube video “Jobs: the Recession Barrier Erodes” went up today. Are we in a recession or not? Many economists argue that because there’s strength in the labor market, we can’t be in a recession. But what...
Just when it looks certain that the economy is headed toward recession, services post a big pickup in July
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey for non-manufacturing (AKA services) from the Institute for Supply Management showed a surprise pickup in July. The services index rebounded to 56.7 in July from 55.3 in June, the ISM reported on Wednesday, August 3. This put...
The consumer is getting stretched: credit card debt rises by $46 billion in the second quarter
Credit card debt rose in the United States from April through June by $46 billion, a 5.5% increase over the first quarter, as Americans borrowed billions of dollars to continue spending, according to a report on Tuesday, August 2, from the Federal Reserve Bank of New...
This looks like the Bear Market rally I’ve been waiting for
After looking like it was over earlier in the week with a significant pull back on Tuesday, July 26, stocks have rallied in the last two days, gaining 3.85% by the Thursday, July 28 close from that Tuesday low. And right now all the ducks are lined up in a row for a...
GDP dips at 0.9% annual rate–it’s an unofficial recession
U.S. GDP dropped by 0.2% in the second quarter (quarter over quarter) to a 0.9% annual rate of contraction. We won’t get an official call of “recession” at the earliest until economists see the labor market head south and the economic cycle guys...
I’m selling Chipotle Mexican Grill out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio
In yesterday’s YouTube video ( Beat the coming recession) I explained that a recession works by peeling the sock market onion. With each step down in the economy, more stocks report negative surprises or issue negative guidance. Investors and traders sell those...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Investing to beat the coming recession
My one-hundred-and-sixtieth YouTube video “Investing to beat the coming recession” went up today. I’m back, after a week’s hiatus. This week I’m sharing some thoughts about the market trials and tribulations of Snap (SNAP) and Alphabet...
Demand destruction? Inflation? Yep–Starbucks and Dunkin’ see traffic decline in June
According to new data from foot traffic analytics platform Placer.ai, coffee visits at big coffee chains like Dunkin’ and Starbucks (SBUX) dropped below traffic for quick service restaurants for the first time all year during June. The drop in June is quite a...
Why “When will the recession arrive? isn’t the most important question right now
If the recession isn’t here already, it’s only because of a technicality. In the first-quarter U.S. GDP contracted at a 1.6% annualized rate. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow tracker forwards that in the second-quarter GDP will contract at a 2.1%...
Fed’s June minutes increase odds of a 75 basis point increase at July 27 meeting
In my opinion, this was the most important statement in the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting released today: Fed officials “recognized that policy firming could slow the pace of economic growth for a time, but they saw the return of inflation to...
Adding Kimberly-Clark to my Dividend Portfolio tomorrow, July 6.
As I said in my recent video “Quick Pick Kimberly-Clark,” I’m adding this stock to my Dividend Portfolio effect tomorrow July 6. The stock pays a dividend of 3.39%. That’s not knock-your-socks-off stuff, but very good for a very defensive...
Today’s stock market consensus: Recession soon, Fed rate cuts accelerated
Stocks sold off heavily this morning with the Standard & Poor’s down 2% and the NASDAQ Composite off 1.9%. They have rallied in the afternoon so that the S&P 500 is up 0.16% % and the NASDAQ is up 1.75% at the close. What we’re seeing is the...
Consumer savings rate plunges to post-Great Recession low; bad news on recession odds
A deeply troubling look at consumer balances from Statista. Well, deeply troubling if you hope that the United States will avoid a recession. (Frankly, I’m in the “Hope we avoid but I’m afraid we won’t camp.”) In April, Americans saved...
It’s a war of two narratives–today “recession” narrative replaces “rate cut” narrative and stocks fall heavily
Yesterday, the stock market was up with the Standard & Poor’s 500 gaining 1.46% on the day and the NASDAQ Composite up 2.49%. Listening to the Federal Reserve’s policy statement after the June 15 meeting of its Open Market Committee, Wall Street chose...
Please watch my new YouTube video: We’re headed to a recession…if the Fed is serious about fighting inflation
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-seventh YouTube video “We’re headed to a recession…if the Fed is serious about fighting inflation” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. Here’s the...
The Fed will engineer a recession–more details not in the video
In today’s YouTube video I argue that the Federal Reserve will have engineer a recession if it is serious about bringing inflation under control. This post gets more into the specific details of why I think that’s true than the video does. (I suggest...
Please watch my new YouTube video: “My fear is a credit crunch”
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-third YouTube video “My fear is a credit crunch” went up today. My fear is a credit crunch. I’m not as concerned with the Fed raising rates, or a recession–those are sort of run of the usual events. But a credit...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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