What’s this China-U.S. tariff deal mean?
The United states and China have agreed to pause higher tariffs for 90 days. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Monday, after weekend talks in Geneva with a Chinese delegation led by Vice Premier He Lifeng, that U.S....
Gold is probably at a temporary peak after Sunday news on China deal
With the news on Sunday from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that U.S. and China negotiators have reached a trade deal, I expect that we’ve seen a short-term peak in gold. Gold has been up and down over the last month, whiplashed by good news/bad news on tariffs and...
It’s definitely a trend: 3 more bellwether companies rescind guidance
Ford Motor (F), Cummins (CMI), and Mattel (MAT) are the latest companies to pull their revenue and earnings guidance for the rest of 2025 because of uncertainty introduced by the Trump tariffs. All three companies withdrew guidance for future quarters after announcing...
Tariffs could mean some empty shelves in U.S. as early as May
President Donald Trump’s tariffs on goods from China have disrupted trans-Pacific supply chains. In the three weeks since the tariffs took effect, ocean-container bookings from China to the U.S. are down by more than 60%, Ryan Petersen, founder and CEO of Flexport, a...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Quick Pick Amazon
Today’s Quick Pick is Amazon.com (AMZN)–despite the current tariff panic. While the stock is down due to the broad market sell-off and concerns over tariffs impacting its supply chain, I believe Amazon’s size and logistical power will help it mitigate...
The U.S. is holding the most painful end of the trade war stick
Goldman Sachs has take a look at how difficult it would be for U.S. companies to find alternatives to Chinese sources of supply in a global trade/tariff war. And the picture isn’t very pretty. Goldman writes: “Notably, 36% of US imports from China (around $158...
Nvidia hit with surprise effective ban on chip sales to China
Just days after Nvidia and other chip stocks rallied on news that thee Trump Administration would pause tariffs on chips and electronic goods, the White House has informed the company it would require a special license for exports of its H20 chips. The H20 chips were...
President Trump pauses all tariffs for 90 days–except for those on China
Just in case you were getting bored with the lack of volatility in today’s market: On Wednesday afternoon, President Donald Trump announced he would raise the tariff charged on Chinese exports to the United States to 125%, effective immediately. And that he would...
China retaliates with 50% tariff on U.S. goods, bringing total to 84%
Two and half hours before the opening of the U.S. stock markets Wednesday morning, China announced its response to President Donald Trump’s hike of tariffs on all Chinese imports. China imposed a 50% retaliatory tariff on all U.S. goods, bringing the total...
Trump announces his new tariff plan; how will first the financial markets and then consumers react?
My first take away from President Donald Trump’s Rose Garden speech on his new global reciprocal tariff plan is that it worse than expected. In some cases shockingly worse. We will have a better idea of market reaction tomorrow but the initial reaction has been...
Another vote in the White House for more tariffs
It’s not clear who White House advisor Peter Navarro speaks for but on Sunday he spoke up loudly for more tariffs. On Fox News Navarro claimed Sunday that President Donald Trump’s new tariffs would raise more than $6 trillion in federal revenue over the next decade....
The dollar isn’t behaving like it’s supposed to–selling dollar ETF and buying yen ETF
The U.S. dollar has traditionally been seen as a safe haven asset. When turmoil grips the financial markets, money usually flows into dollar-denominated assets. Even when the United States is the source of that turmoil–as it is now thanks to the global trade war...
Next week it’s tariffs and jobs
Next week two big events will rule them all. Tariff Wednesday: The Trump Administration has promised to release details of the big round of U.S. reciprocal tariffs. The UnitedStates will raise tariffs on exports from individual countries to match the tariff rate that...
More tariffs, lots more tariffs, still on schedule forApril 2
The Washington Post is reporting today that White House aides are preparing new tariffs on most imports to be announced on April 2, laying the groundwork for an escalation in global tariffs that President Donald Trump has called “Liberation Day.” Through his first two...
Trump criticizes the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady
That didn’t take long. Wednesday afternoon the Federal Reserve decided to keep its benchmark interest rate steady–no rate cut. Wednesday night President Donald Trump renewed his call for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates as he criticized the central...Buckle those seat belts–it’s going to be a bumpy two weeks
I see the beginning of two weeks of extraordinary volatility. Look what’s on deck. On Tuesday, March 4, President Donald Trump will give his first joint address to Congress–it’s not officially a State of the Union address because newly elected presidents don’t...
China readies antitrust probe of Apple
China’s antitrust watchdog, the State Administration for Market Regulation, is laying the groundwork for a potential probe into Apple’s (AAPL) app store policies and the fees it charges app developers. Apple policies under scrutiny include the cut of as much as 30% on...
Two sells before the tariffs start–more to come, I suspect
Stocks moved down slightly on Friday–with the Standard & Poor’s 500 off 0.50% and the NASDAQ Composite down 0.28%–as investors started to revise their belief that President Donald Trump wasn’t really serious about raising tariffs. And they’re down...
As tech sells off in a rout, where’s the fear?
Don’t think traders and Wall Street market strategists haven’t noticed: on a day when AI stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) fell 17% each, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.4%. Yes, Wall Street’s “fear gauge”—-the VIX—soared 20% the most since...
Paul Krugman puts some numbers on the effects of Trump’s tariffs
Assuming that conventional economics still has some validity and that economic history has some predictive value, Paul Krugman, who won his 2008 Nobel-prize in economics for his work on international trading patterns, has put some numbers on the likely effects of the...
Tariff trial ballon on how much and who will get hit?
Today the Washington Post reported that President-elect Donald Trump’s aides are exploring tariff plans that would amount to paring back–the Post’s characterization–the tariff plans that candidate Trump proposed on the campaign trail President-elect Trump...
Does Trump’s digital tax deal with France sound familiar?
France and the United States have struck what the Trump administration and the French government are billing as a global framework for digital taxation that avoids a transatlantic trade war (according to French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire.) But like the Phase 1...
Now that the U.S. and China have signed that Part 1 trade deal, let the second guessing begin
The United States and China signed a Part 1 trade deal today that contained little in the way of positive surprises and an expected lack of detail. As analysts and economists struggled to fill in the blanks, much of the deeper dive wound up stressing the negatives in...
Stocks slip on news that Part 1 trade agreement between U.S. and China won’t significantly reduce existing tariffs until after the November election
Wednesday is still likely to bring the signing of a Part 1 agreement in the U.S.-China trade war. But the public document is likely to have even fewer details than expected recently and to leave existing tariffs in place until after the Presidential election in...
China almost confirms January 15 deal signing
It’s not exactly a confirmation of President Donald Trump’s announcement that the Part 1 trade deal would be signed between the United States and China at the White House on January 15. But China has scheduled a high-level trade delegation for travel to...
“News” on U.S.-China trade talks takes away, “news” on talks gives back
A day after “news” on the lack of progress of U.S.-China trade talks led to a decline in stocks, “news” of progress in the talks has led to a modest rally. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed up 0.63% today and the Dow Jones Industrial...
Trump says, No hurry to strike a trade deal with China in 2020, and markets tumble
“I don’t have a deadline,” Trump told reporters today in London. “I like the idea of waiting until after the election for the China deal. But they want to make a deal now and we’ll see whether not the deal is going to be right.” And with that financial markets that...
Where’d that come from? Trump reinstates tariffs on Brazilian and Argentine steel and aluminum
President Donald Trump has reinstated tariffs on steel and aluminum exports from Argentina and Brazil, leaving global financial markets wondering what that means. At best, the move is based on mis-understanding by the White House of how exchange rates work. The...
Tariff roll back or not? Markets certainly don’t know.
The uncertainty extends even to whether or not a Part 1 trade deal between the United States and China will even get signed in 2019. Yesterday, China’s Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng said negotiators had “agreed to remove additional tariffs in phases as...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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