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Watch out, higher volatility ahead. A jumpy market can cost you a chunk of cash even if the indexes don't plunge.

November 2, 2009 @ 12:47 pm | Breaking News, Leading Indicators | 5 comments

Hold onto your hats! I’m afraid that investors are in for a big step up in volatility. Take Friday’s 250-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Scary? You bet. But I’d argue that it was just “normal” volatility these days. It wasn’t the result of...

This rally faces important short-term technical challenges

October 26, 2009 @ 9:02 am | Breaking News | 2 comments

Last week put this rally at one of those short-term turning points. A number of markets are challenging critical ceilings or testing major support levels. That’s likely to keep investors nervous, and the markets jittery, until the trend resolves into continued...

Rallies after short-term dips making bears cautious

October 22, 2009 @ 10:39 pm | Leading Indicators | 2 comments

It’s drops like we had at the end of the day on Wednesday followed by rallies like we had on Thursday that are keeping bears from launching a major attack on this rally. Wednesday’s sell off at the end of the day looked like it might lead to a big enough...

In the very (very, very) short term the stock market has gone defensive

October 1, 2009 @ 8:30 am | Breaking News | 5 comments

Yesterday on StockCharts.com Arthur Hill took a look at what sectors are showing relative strength. What he found was that over the very short term–that is from around September 15 or 22 (depending on the sector) defensive sectors such as utilities, health care...

Is 1120 the next big test for the S&P 500?

September 21, 2009 @ 9:07 am | Breaking News, Leading Indicators | 4 comments

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is closing in on 10,000 again and you can expect the financial talking heads to get all breathless as we approach that mark. But for investors the index to watch and the number to watch in the next few weeks is the Standard &...

Stocks test the top of their range

September 8, 2009 @ 11:29 pm | Breaking News, Leading Indicators | 2 comments

Nice of the stock market to cooperate while I was on vacation. Stocks didn’t move substantially higher and they didn’t move substantially lower while I was away from my desk in the last weeks of August. The market was what I’d call range bound for...

Credit Suisse calls a top–temporarily–for emerging markets stocks

August 6, 2009 @ 1:13 pm | Breaking News | 2 comments

Credit Suisse, the Swiss investment banking and asset management giant, told clients on August 6 that emerging stock markets had hit a top after rallying 72% in five months. The note said that six indicators had turned negative on these markets: the 200-day moving...

Good news from North Korea will get Asian stock markets hopping

August 4, 2009 @ 6:50 pm | Leading Indicators | 8 comments

There’s a good chance that the biggest financial story on Wednesday August 5 won’t be a financial story at all. In a stunning turnaround North Korea’s Kim Jong Il has pardoned two American journalists and ordered their release from a North Korean...

The big test: How long will it take this rally to bust through 1,000 on the S&P?

July 28, 2009 @ 6:53 pm | Breaking News, Leading Indicators | 14 comments

Notice that I’m asking When?and not If?  This rally looks like it has enough momentum to get through the 1,000 barrier. It sure helps that the big alternative to stocks, money market funds, are paying just 0.5% right now. With lots of cash on the sidelines I do...
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