Two big clouds of doubt hover over shares of Apple (AAPL).
First, will the continuing U.S.-China trade war take another bite out of Apple’s China revenue? And/Or disrupt Apple’s China supply chain, saddling the company with higher tariffs on its made in China iPhones?
Back in January shares of Apple plunged to the lowest price in a year-and-a-half after the company cut its revenue outlook for the first time in almost two decades, citing weaker demand in China.
Last January’s disappointing guidance is certainly enough to make traders and investors nervous about Apple’s December 2019 quarter holiday sales.
But quite frankly there’s not a lot that Apple can do about the China tariff battle.
Second, will Apple’s new product announcements in September be exciting enough to put some energy into Apple’s sales?
This one Apple can do something about. The company has started to say something about the outlines of its new product plans. So far, on the hardware side, they look “meh” in my opinion.
The new products include a camera heavy Pro iPhone with four cameras inserted of two, a big refresh to the iPad Pro with ungraded cameras and faster chips, an entry-level iPad with a larger screen, the first revamp of the MacBook Pro laptop in three years, updates to AirPods and the HomePod Speaker, and new versions of the Apple Watch (one in titanium–does that excite you?)
The biggest possible sources of pizzazz might come from Apple TV+video and the Apple Arcade gaming subscription service. You’ll note that in keeping with recent revenue growth trends at Apple, those last two are more about software and services than about hardware.
A lineup that’s light on excitement (in my judgement) isn’t enough to make me want to buck the negative possibilities on China and tariffs.
But maybe Apple’s line up excites you more than it does me. I admit that I still use an iPhone 5.