As expected, Iranian-backed Houthis say they will block oil traffic in the Red Sea
This is the story just posted by the New York Times: “The Houthis, the Iran-backed armed faction in Yemen, said they would impose a blockade on Saudi ships entering and leaving the Red Sea, threatening to open a new front in the Middle East conflict and raising...
Did 2 tankers hit mines and explode in the Strait of Hormuz Saturday? Does the truth matter for oil prices?
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is claiming that two oil tankers hit mines and exploded south of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. military is publicly denying that this actually happened. And no independent source has been able to confirm the sinking. Does the truth still...
This is as good as it gets–take some profits
Today, stocks were up strongly on news that the U.S. and Iran had signed a “framework” to end the Iran war. The Standard & Poor’s 500 ended trading up 1.65%. The NASDAQ Composite gained 3.07%. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), the “fear index” dropped 8.37% to...
Peace talk whipsaws dollar, oil, Treasuries again
If you have to follow the news with your cash, these are insanely difficult markets. The dollar, seen as a safe haven asset, fell by the most in more than a month as President Donald Trump vowed of progress on a deal to end the war. The day before President Trump had...
Selling by India adds to the weakness in gold
India’s central bank looks to be selling a portion of its gold holdings protect the rupee, according to an analysis by Bloomberg. The Reserve Bank of India likely sold gold reserves worth roughly $12 billion in the two weeks through May 22, while buying $7.5 billion...
How to trade the “end” of the Iran war
As I write this on Sunday night, it’s not at all clear whether or nit there will be a U.S.-Iran deal in the next few days. Last minute disagreements meant it looked unlikely a final Pakistani memorandum would be signed as hoped for on Sunday, but, the Guardian...
India roils the gold and silver markets–how long will that continue?
This week we’ll get to see if the restrictions India slapped on gold and silver imports in an effort defend the rupee seNd precious metals tumbling again in the week ahead. India tightened restrictions on gold imports again Thursday, imposing fresh limits on duty-free...
Financial markets decide stalemate is a good sign
On a day when both the United States and Iran claimed control of the Straits of Hormuz, stocks rose and oil fell. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed the day Tuesday up 0.81% to a new record high. Brent crude dropped 3.44% to $110.50 a barrel. Gold gained 0.78% on...
Blockade of Hormuz to begin tomorrow morning
US Central Command (Centcom) has announced that they will begin their blockade of the Strait of Hormuz beginning Monday morning. “Centcom forces will begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on April 13 at 10am ET, in...
Blockade in the Strait of Hormuz? Watch fro stocks and gold to sell off on Monday and oil prices to climb
President Donald Trump’s plan to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, if successful, will lead to retaliation by Iran that escalates the warpath Iran to new levels. And sends energy prices surging higher. The blockade would halt the shipment of nearly 2 million barrels a...
Stock and oil markets disagree–I think the oil market has it “righter”
When asset classes that are “supposed” to move together diverge, it gets my attention. The markets are trying to tell me something. Which is what happened with stocks and oil on Thursday, April 2, after President Donald Trump’s speech on the war with Iran. I’d...
The oil at sea price buffer is about to end
Paul Krugman points out that oil at sea at the start of the Iran war provided a price buffer. But that buffer is about to run out. Deliveries to Asian markets will end this week; deliveries to Europe will end next week. For his full post go to...
A minor difference of opinion on inflation and the effects of the Iran war
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s insistence that the effects of the Iran war would be minor and transitory apparently so got to ECB president Christine Lagarde that she called him out in front of an audience of high-level Group of Seven officials. Bessent played...
And now bad news is good news? For a day
The U.S. bond market rallied from its deepest selloff in 17 months as traders moved away from a belief that the Federal Reserve would seek to head off an increase in inflation by raising interest rates. Today’s thinking is that the Iran war will produce an economic...
Another extension in Trump’s deadline in Iran
You’ll need to find something else to worry about if you were planning to spend the weekend trying to figure out the Next step in the U.S. war with Iran. On Thursday, just minutes after stocks had finished trading for the day in New York, President Donald Trump...
When does the Strait of Hormuz reopen? It’s becoming a critical question for Europe
Europe could face a shortage of energy and fuel as soon as next month without a reopening of the strait of Hormuz, Shell CEO Wael Sawan, said at an energy conference in Houston. Without a return of crude deliveries from the Gulf to global buyers via the crucial...
How tightly is the Strait of Hormuz closed?
Pretty tightly seems to be the answer. Only two vessels not linked to Iran or Russia have made the tun through the strait of Hormuz, according to maritime records, since President Donald Trump said he would “ensure the free flow of energy to the world.” One of those...
What?!–Saturday’s unconditional surrender becomes today’s Iran war is very complete–and then…
The Standard & Poor’s 500 began the day with a 1.5% loss. Brent crude soared to $120 a barrel. The moves were totally reasonable. Investors and traders had feared that the war with Iran would spiral into a more destructive and wider regional war. And recent...
Buying Costco: one of the few companies to benefit from higher gasoline prices
Today I’m adding Costco Wholesale (COST) to my Jubak Picks Portfolio. I’m looking for stocks of companies that might actually benefit from the effects of the war with Iran on the U.S. economy. There aren’t many candidates. Costco is one. (Walmart is another but it’s...
Qatar halts LNG production
On Monday Qatar’s state-owned energy company said it would halt production of liquefied natural gas, cutting off a large share of the world’s supply of the fuel. Qatar supplies 18% of global LNG. Qatar exports LNG via the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic through the strait...
Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to oil traffic
Strait of Hormuz summary from the Washington Post Monday A.M.: “Ships have largely stopped moving through the strait following bombing attacks by Iran and its threats against vessels that defy its directive to stay away. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps...
If you’re looking for a highly leveraged play on the worst case scenario in the Strait of Hormuz, I think it’s natural gas and not oil
No one knows, of course, how the attack on Iran will play out in either the medium or long term. The energy and financial markets were closed for the weekend, so they’ve given us relatively subdued feedback on the events. It will be “interesting” to see on Monday how...
Now it’s all about the Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s supreme leader warned on February 1 that if his country was attacked by the United States, a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz is within its power. And now that the attack has come? It would be an extreme step that Iran has never taken, but it remains a...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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