First, the optimists among economists who believe the United States will dodge a Recession. And then the pessimists who say we’ll see the economy shrink in the first quarter of 2025. (First quarter GDP is scheduled to be reported on the morning of April 30.)
Even the optimists aren’t very optimistic. According to the latest Bloomberg survey of economists, the U.S. economy is set to expand at an annual rate of 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, compared with predictions of 2% and 1.9% in last month’s poll. The median respondent now sees a 45% chance of a downturn in the next 12 months, up from 30% in March.
And the pessimists? They see negative growth in the first quarter.
Economists at Goldman Sachs, which has solid record on predicting growth trends, predict a sharp deceleration in the real annual GDP growth rate from 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024 to -0.2% in the first quarter of 2025. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model now, on April 24, shows the first quarter annual growth rate falling to -0.4% (for its adjusted projection which corrects for flows of gold into and out of the United States. The unadjusted model shows growth falling to an annual growth rate of -2.5%.)
