The consensus is that the headline all-in year-over-year inflation rate will come in at 6.2% for January when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the numbers before the New York market open tomorrow February 14. That would be down from an annual 6.5% rate in December
Good news for investors and traders hoping that the Fed will end its current cycle of interest rate increase soon (June or July) and with a peak rate of 5.2% or less.
The worry remains the month-to-month move in inflation with the consensus looking for a 0.4% increase in the CPI inflation rate in January from December.
The handicapping at the moment is
0.2% increase–so less of an increase than the consensus expects–stocks and other risk-on assets rally
0.6% increase–so more of an increase than the consensus expects–stocks and other risk-on assets sell-off.
I’d rather buy the Treasury itself rather than the ETF. Get more protection since I get my capital back at maturity.
Was wondering if TLT would be a good trade when 10yr. hits 4.25.